DontKnowHowToBet's Official Thread [Join for FREE picks]

[dontknowhowtobet]

I promised here to start my own thread and provide my picks.
Those picks have LOW ODDS but please bear in mind a lot of research is dedicated into each one in order to provide only quality picks.

I'm starting this official thread with a balance of £100 GBP in Pinnacle website and you are welcome to join:



Please note from time to time the amount of bets placed out of this balance will vary, sometimes I will be with 10% of the balance (i.e. £10) and sometimes with the full amount.

Also please note this requires a lot of patience, it's not about betting so often, it's about betting when it's right!

[dontknowhowtobet]

2nd of May 2012 - First bet is going to bring us 9% up tonight, take the San Antonio Spurs in Money Line against Utah Jazz.
Precentage of risk amount: 100% of the bankroll.



Goodluck to all of you!

[Dom177]

Entire BR every bet?

[spankie]

this will end well.

[cleaveland]

I'll be watching this closely. I got Mike Conley over 20 points + assists at odds, if you can get that bet at pinnacle I'd consider taking some of your profits from the Spurs game and betting on Conley. He will bring his A game and the entire Grizzlies team will as well.

[Joe Dogs]

Good Luck.

[cleaveland]

I'll be watching this closely. I got Mike Conley over 20 points + assists at odds, if you can get that bet at pinnacle I'd consider taking some of your profits from the Spurs game and betting on Conley. He will bring his A game and the entire Grizzlies team will as well.

Winner!

[dontknowhowtobet]

Entire BR every bet?

No, only on solid bets.

[dontknowhowtobet]

Winner!

[dontknowhowtobet]

3rd of May 2012 - Moving on guys, next one is Today's tennis:



Source & Reasons:

http://www.crunchsports.com/category/Tennis/WTA-Budapest-Sara-Errani-vs-Alberta-Brianti-201205030002/

1) No reports of injuries for both players so Errani is good to play.
2) Brianti played long 3 sets yesterday, she will be tired today compared with Errani who hasn't put too much effort.
3) Brianti was born in 1980 and Errani in 1987, not that I underestimate the player but being older, woman, after 3 long sets can only explain the LOW ODDS here.
4) Bookies don't care about this game, which is why they set low odds, and Pinnacle doesn't offer +1.5 on sets for Errani on this one, they are sure Errani takes at least 1 set (and same thing with the prediction in the link above)

We're going to move towards the 18% up today.

[dontknowhowtobet]

this will end well.

I love your avatar lol.

[dontknowhowtobet]

Results:

[dontknowhowtobet]

18% up so far.

[dontknowhowtobet]

Darn ... if there are no comments I'd rather stop posting here ... it's not encouraging to do all the work and analyze games and don't get any comments for that ... |sigh|

[tony_come]

This is crazy!

[dontknowhowtobet]

This is crazy!

Why?

[PHyldahl]

because of two things:

1. Spurs was solid, but entire roll on a tennis match shows you don't really care about your money. Just saying.

2.

Darn ... if there are no comments I'd rather stop posting here ... it's not encouraging to do all the work and analyze games and don't get any comments for that ... |sigh|

[sapidoc]

Great thread so far! Keep up the good work!

Best of luck getting to 100%!

[acl123]

Good work

[Underdog5229]

Good luck!

[spankie]

Good work

no offense to the OP, but how the fuk is it good work to pick 2 -1000 favs?

come on now.

anyone can do that.

[acl123]

[sapidoc]

no offense to the OP, but how the fuk is it good work to pick 2 -1000 favs?

come on now.

anyone can do that.

not all -1000 favs win... lots of analysis of the games to only pick the -1000 winners... lets just see where it goes spankie

[dontknowhowtobet]

no offense to the OP, but how the fuk is it good work to pick 2 -1000 favs?

come on now.

anyone can do that.

If you want me to simply pick "random" 1.06 winners then I'm not going to do that.
You need to analyze a game you want to play with.
For instance today Gasquet is playing against Daniel La Nova, and Gasquet is a heavy favourite to win this but I'm not going to touch this one, despite the low odds.

There are better cases of low odds where you want to pick them up.
Also, as soon as I get to £200 I will split the bets over £20, £20 each or so ... to minimize the risk of the entire bankroll and also maxmize profit and such ...

Being 18% up is awesome, the question is how you keep it like that, so I'm waiting right now because I haven't seen any bet that I like so far, so for me not betting today is also winning, because when you bet when it's the right time (discipline) then you make the most out of it.

And as others said - let me just try and prove it.

[jjgold]

Give the kid a chance

Also he does have some nice write ups about his theory and the games involved

Best of luck Pal

[dontknowhowtobet]

Unfortunately Pinnacle did not have this bet for me to take, but whoever listened to my advice here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1704886-lock-lock-lock-easy-20-opportunity.html

Made nice 20% on his bankroll.

[jjgold]

Good call

[PHyldahl]

how can you go all in on a tennis match? Simple question.

first pick was solid, because Spurs would win DD even if Duncan, Parker and Manu got shot and died five before tipoff.

You caught my attention with the first pick, but already lost it again. sorry, but some of the things you write makes no sense. gl, you'll nede it mate.

[dontknowhowtobet]

how can you go all in on a tennis match? Simple question.

You read the statistics before the game, you analyze the tennis match.
I told you today I wouldn't touch Richard Gasquet's match, even though he got 8% (1.08 odds) because I find it riskier. Right?!

So I'm not sure what is the difference between Tennis and NBA, yes, I personally prefer basketball and more people involved, but Tennis can be predictable as well.

Now regarding Gasquet's game, it's 4-4 first set and the players both easily break each other's serve, very dangerous game in my opinion, especially if De La-Nava manages to pick up the first set from here.

[Kindred]

I can't believe these picks are FREE

[PHyldahl]

are you kidding me. difference is you have one player in tennis who needs to **** up (read: injuries) compared to 3+ players in the spurs match.

sorry for being a bit harsh on you, but I can't believe people are doing the "" and so on. are they being sarcastic?

this is a perfect example of bad money management.

[5mike5]

terrible MM actually

not any risk at all when ur so called "bankroll" is 100

[PHyldahl]

Also, as soon as I get to £200 I will split the bets over £20, £20 each or so ... to minimize the risk of the entire bankroll and also maxmize profit and such ...

maxmize profit and such, lol. do you even know what you are talking about. once again no offence, but comeon people.

what is your take on this "dontknowhowtobet"?

wanna learn how to bet? just ask

[dontknowhowtobet]

Sorry this is a live bet but you can still place it - goodluck! (they have no chance to lose)



Goodnight and goodluck!

[cleaveland]

It looks like this thread could be dead after 3 bets.