1. #36
    no1here
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    Systems only works if the human can operate as a machine which he can't.

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  2. #37
    darkhat
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Martingale is 100% full proof in any form of gambling if there are no house limits.
    It really is. Even without an infinite bank roll, how many losses straight have you ever lost. I think I could be able to live off the system if I had like a 50k bank roll and no limits.

  3. #38
    DrIn$entive
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    Quote Originally Posted by darkhat View Post
    It really is. Even without an infinite bank roll, how many losses straight have you ever lost. I think I could be able to live off the system if I had like a 50k bank roll and no limits.
    Just looking at JJ's spreadhseet just for 2012 shows that he lost 8 in a row:

    <table id="ss_data" class="ss_data" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="pickRowAlt pickAdmin0" style=""><td id="ssRow_679717" style="width:130px;">01/08/2012 09:56 AM</td><td id="ssRow_679717" style="width:60px;">NBA</td><td id="ssRow_679717"> +2Wash</td><td id="ssRow_679717" style="width:50px;text-align:right;">-110</td><td id="ssRow_679717" style="width:100px;">rebatewager</td><td id="ssRow_679717" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $110.00</td><td id="ssRow_679717" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $100.00</td><td id="ssRow_679717" style="width:87px;">
    </td></tr><tr class="pickRow pickAdmin0" style=""><td id="ssRow_679714" style="width:130px;">01/08/2012 09:56 AM</td><td id="ssRow_679714" style="width:60px;">NHL</td><td id="ssRow_679714">Chicago</td><td id="ssRow_679714" style="width:50px;text-align:right;">-120</td><td id="ssRow_679714" style="width:100px;">rebatewager</td><td id="ssRow_679714" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $120.00</td><td id="ssRow_679714" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $100.00</td><td id="ssRow_679714" style="width:87px;">
    </td></tr><tr class="pickRowAlt pickAdmin0" style=""><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:130px;">01/07/2012 01:36 PM</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:60px;">NHL</td><td id="ssRow_678777">Buffalo</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:50px;text-align:right;">-130</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:100px;">rebatewager</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $130.00</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $100.00</td></tr></tbody></table><table id="ss_data" class="ss_data" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="pickRowAlt pickAdmin0" style=""><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:130px;">01/07/2012 01:36 PM</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:60px;">NHL</td><td id="ssRow_678777">Buffalo</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:50px;text-align:right;">-130</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:100px;">rebatewager</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $130.00</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $100.00</td><td id="ssRow_678777" style="width:87px;">
    </td></tr><tr class="pickRow pickAdmin0" style=""><td id="ssRow_678778" style="width:130px;">01/07/2012 01:36 PM</td><td id="ssRow_678778" style="width:60px;">NHL</td><td id="ssRow_678778">U5.5Boston</td><td id="ssRow_678778" style="width:50px;text-align:right;">-130</td><td id="ssRow_678778" style="width:100px;">rebatewager</td><td id="ssRow_678778" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $130.00</td><td id="ssRow_678778" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $100.00</td><td id="ssRow_678778" style="width:87px;">
    </td></tr><tr class="pickRowAlt pickAdmin0" style=""><td id="ssRow_678779" style="width:130px;">01/07/2012 01:36 PM</td><td id="ssRow_678779" style="width:60px;">NHL</td><td id="ssRow_678779">u5.5Nashville</td><td id="ssRow_678779" style="width:50px;text-align:right;">-130</td><td id="ssRow_678779" style="width:100px;">rebatewager</td><td id="ssRow_678779" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $130.00</td><td id="ssRow_678779" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $100.00</td><td id="ssRow_678779" style="width:87px;">
    </td></tr><tr class="pickRow pickAdmin0" style=""><td id="ssRow_678772" style="width:130px;">01/07/2012 01:35 PM</td><td id="ssRow_678772" style="width:60px;">NFL</td><td id="ssRow_678772"> +4Cincy</td><td id="ssRow_678772" style="width:50px;text-align:right;">-110</td><td id="ssRow_678772" style="width:100px;">rebatewager</td><td id="ssRow_678772" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $110.00</td><td id="ssRow_678772" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $100.00</td><td id="ssRow_678772" style="width:87px;">
    </td></tr><tr class="pickRowAlt pickAdmin0" style=""><td id="ssRow_678773" style="width:130px;">01/07/2012 01:35 PM</td><td id="ssRow_678773" style="width:60px;">NFL</td><td id="ssRow_678773">-7Saints 1h</td><td id="ssRow_678773" style="width:50px;text-align:right;">-110</td><td id="ssRow_678773" style="width:100px;">rebatewager</td><td id="ssRow_678773" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $110.00</td><td id="ssRow_678773" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $100.00</td><td id="ssRow_678773" style="width:87px;">
    </td></tr><tr class="pickRow pickAdmin0" style=""><td id="ssRow_678774" style="width:130px;">01/07/2012 01:35 PM</td><td id="ssRow_678774" style="width:60px;">NCAAF</td><td id="ssRow_678774">-2.5Pitt 1h</td><td id="ssRow_678774" style="width:50px;text-align:right;">-110</td><td id="ssRow_678774" style="width:100px;">rebatewager</td><td id="ssRow_678774" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $110.00</td><td id="ssRow_678774" style="width:75px;text-align:right;"> $100.00</td><td id="ssRow_678774" style="width:87px;">
    </td></tr></tbody></table>Losing $25,500 martingaling just at +100 lines would suck.

    But the good news he is currently right now on a 7 game winning streak

    Last edited by DrIn$entive; 02-05-12 at 09:28 AM.
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    daneblazer gave DrIn$entive 22 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  4. #39
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by darkhat View Post
    It really is. Even without an infinite bank roll, how many losses straight have you ever lost. I think I could be able to live off the system if I had like a 50k bank roll and no limits.
    In European/Singe-Zero roulette house edge is always 2.70% and in the long run it is mathematically certain that this what your ROI will be. Employing a chase system (martingale is just one example) will give you a positive ROI only until you hit that losing streak that will bust you. To say that those streaks never happen is just an expression of gambler's fallacy. The clue should be in the word "fallacy".

    In European roulette the number of spins where it becomes statistically probable that such a losing streak will have occurred is as follows:

    8 straight losses - 295 spins
    9 straight losses - 575 spins
    10 straight losses - 1120 spins

    Put in the context of sports betting, a 2.7% house edge is significantly less than the 4.76% theoretical hold implied by -110 odds so the above figures are roughly equivalent to a bettor who wins 51% of his straight bets.

  5. #40
    Wrecktangle
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    mark this thread

  6. #41
    Jaug
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Martingale is 100% full proof in any form of gambling if there are no house limits.
    jj stuff like this hurts the minds of us gambling analysts.

  7. #42
    mathdotcom
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR_John View Post
    Martingale System
    The most common approach to gambling systems is based on a martingale system model.
    Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th
    century France. A martingale style system is one where you double your bet after a
    losing (or with some variations after a winning) hand i.e., a $5 bet is lost so the
    next bet made is $10. If that is lost the third bet made is for $20. If the third bet
    is won you win 20 and retain your bet, so have a total of $40. In this way you have
    essentially recouped your losses on the original $5 bet and the $10 bet. You've also
    made a $5 profit. This is the worst sytem ever imagined. It is particularly bad since
    a small losing streak will put the gambler up against the table limit of the casino.

    D’Alembert System
    Introduced in the mid 1700’s by Jean le Rond D’Alembert. This is a progression system
    that helps win back losses in small steps instead of all at once like the Martingale.
    It was engineered for use on the even chance bets on a roulette table but can be used
    on any even chance bet. This system works on the theory that over time there will be
    an equal number of wins for both the player and the banker. If a player starts a session
    by placing one unit ($1, $5 or any other value) on the player to win, after a losing hand
    he will increase the subsequent bet by one unit and after a winning bet will decrease the
    next bet by one unit. So if he were betting on the player and the results were - loss,
    loss, loss, win, loss, win, win, loss, win, win, win - then the bets placed would be as
    follows (the numbers in brackets show the level of your bankroll after the spin):

    1 (-1), 2 (-3), 3 (-6), 4 (-2), 3 (-5), 4 (-1), 3 (+2), 2 (+0), 3 (+3), 2 (+5), 1 (+6)

    This sequence would close with a win of $6. As soon as the number of wins is equal to the
    number of losses plus one, then the sequence ends with a win. Also notice that after the 7th,
    9th and 10th spins the player was showing a profit, because the bets placed on winning spins
    are one unit greater than the previous losing spin. Having the possibility of a positive bankroll
    before the sequence is complete allows the player to cut the session short after a small win
    rather than risking the chance of the session ending badly. Although this system lessens the
    chances of losing your bankroll the possibility of this happening is still there. A long sequence
    of consecutive losses or a period of time where the banker wins more often than the player will
    soon put the system in a position where it becomes almost impossible to recover. As always the
    house edge works on every spin, and so increasing your bets will eventually increase your losses.

    Fibonacci System [pronounced fib-on-arch-ee or fee-bur-nutch-ee]
    The Fibonacci system is based on a mathematical sequence discovered by Leonardo Pisano, better
    known by his nickname Fibonacci. He was the son of Guilielmo and a member of the Bonacci family.
    It is based on a sequence of numbers where the next number in the sequence is the previous two
    numbers added together. It starts with 1, and continues like this:

    1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610 etc

    In its basic form, a player begins with a 1-unit bet. He then keeps betting one unit until he
    loses, and then moves up one level after each loss, until he wins. After a win he backs up one
    level, and if he wins that bet as well, the run is completed and starts again at one unit.

    EXAMPLE: a progression of 4 losses and two wins (LLLLWW) would see the following bets placed (the
    numbers in brackets show the level of your bankroll after the hand):

    1, (-1), 1 (-2), 2 (-4), 3 (-7), 5 (-2), 3 (-1)

    Twice as many bets have been lost as have been won, but the player is still1 unit ahead, simply
    because he has won two bets in a row. In a similar series where the player does not win two in a
    row, but only 2 of 3 (LLLLWLW) he restarts the series, but this time out profit picture will be
    as follows:

    1, (-1), 1 (-2), 2 (-4), 3 (-7), 5 (-2), 3 (-5), 5 (0)

    In this instance, the 2 out of 3 wins at the end of the sequence have neutralized the progression,
    and the sequence starts again at 1 unit. And suppose we decided to play a 12-step Fibonacci, with
    our top bet being 144 units. Our total risk, which is the complete and utter loss of an entire series,
    is 376 units, or

    1 +1 +2 +3 +5 +8 +13 +21 +34 +55 +89 +144 = 376.

    He can lose eleven bets in a row, (LLLLLLLLLLLWLW), lose a total of 232 units in a row, then win 144,
    lose 89, win 144 for a total loss of 33 units, less than 10% of the player total bankroll. The problem
    with the Fibonacci is not safety, therefore, but the fact that approximately half of your wins will
    come at the very first level of 1 unit, making it an often tedious albeit profitable method. In order to
    counter the boredom, some players will begin their progression at the 4th or 5th level, and alternately
    move up or down as they win or lose, depending on their goals. To use the Fibonacci properly, a player
    must first memorize the progression, and then practice at home flipping a coin, until the bets are made
    automatically. It is a perfect system for all the even-chance games like Craps, Baccarat and Roulette,
    and can be easily modified into a money-management system for Blackjack and sports betting. It is also
    acknowledged as an excellent system for partners betting opposite each other. However, if you decide to
    employ this system, you will find fewer more powerful ways to win with as little risk.

    Labouchere System
    This system is also called the 'Cancellation' system. There are many variations. In its simplest form, A
    player writes down a series or a set of numbers; say, 1 2 3 4 5 6. The series can be short or long and not
    necessarily sequential such as 1 1 1 3 3 5 7. The choice of a particular series depends on the type of
    game you want to apply it to and the odds of the bet. Each number represents the amount in units or chips
    to bet. You bet the first and last of these numbers. In this example 1 and 6, which totals 7 units. If you
    win, you cross out the two numbers and bet the next two 'ends' (the outside numbers). In this instance 2
    and 5. If you win again you bet on the next two remaining numbers 3 and 4, and if you win that too, you
    would have made a 'coup' or completed one game. Then you start all over again. If you lose, then you add
    that one number to the end of the series. Say you lost your first bet of 7 units (1+ 6). Then you add number
    7 to the end of the series to look like this: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 and your next bet would be 8 units (1+ 7). If
    you won the first bet but lost the second 2 and 5, then the series of numbers would look like this: 2 3 4 5 7.
    If you work it out, you will see that when the series is completed or when you make a 'coup', there is always
    a profit. The negative side of this system is that you could end up betting large sums of money even if your
    initial bet is small.

    Oscar's Grind
    The system has the player bet one unit. If he wins, the sequence is over and a new one can be initiated. If
    the wager is lost, then the next bet will be the same size as the one just lost. Whenever a bet is won, the
    next stake is one unit larger, unless it causes the bettor to net more than one unit of profit for the sequence.
    At that point, just enough is wagered to net one unit if the bet wins. That's it!

    thanks to http://www.offshorepig.com/gamblingsystems.html?
    Lang Fade
    Fade Brandon Lang for 1 unit (now have 2 units after you win)
    Fade Brandon Lang for 2 units (now have 4 units after you win)
    Fade Brandon lang for 4 units (now have 8 units after you win)
    ...

  8. #43
    Sam Odom
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    Oscar's Grind

    Will allow you to stay at the table and drink all night long - From personal experiences
    Points Awarded:

    135steward gave Sam Odom 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    SBR Founder Join Date: 10/30/2005


  9. #44
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post


    Oscar's Grind

    Will allow you to stay at the table and drink all night long - From personal experiences

    Still accurate ^

    SBR Founder Join Date: 10/30/2005


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