is that stat about home teams mlb true?

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  • ebbearsfb1
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-07-08
    • 18815

    #1
    is that stat about home teams mlb true?
    A home team only gets swept about ten percent of the time in baseball, and some teams even less.


    true?

    false?
  • mathdotcom
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-24-08
    • 11689

    #2
    Sure, why not?

    Even if it's only a 3 game series, if the home team is about a -115 favorite on average then the odds of them being swept are 10%. It'd be even lower for a 4 game series. And home teams are greater than -115 favorites on average.
    Comment
    • rm18
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 09-20-05
      • 22291

      #3
      Yeh I would of guessed about 10%, 3 coinflips is 12.5%
      Comment
      • milwaukee mike
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 08-22-07
        • 26914

        #4
        i agree with the above statements, no idea why you would expect the number to be greatly different than 10%
        Comment
        • ebbearsfb1
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-07-08
          • 18815

          #5
          Where did I say I didn't agree? I'm not a stat guy, so 10% would seem low at first glance... Its an interesting stat... and could be of major use around here, if you catch my drift
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          • SilverTongueFox
            SBR MVP
            • 11-23-10
            • 2338

            #6
            For Sunday, the following home teams look to avoid the 3 game sweep.
            Twins
            Phillies
            Blue Jays
            Royals
            Comment
            • mathdotcom
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-24-08
              • 11689

              #7
              Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
              Where did I say I didn't agree? I'm not a stat guy, so 10% would seem low at first glance... Its an interesting stat... and could be of major use around here, if you catch my drift
              No.. it isnt
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              • mnpickle
                SBR High Roller
                • 03-06-11
                • 228

                #8
                Twins will lose... No doubt about it...
                Comment
                • superjeff24
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-17-10
                  • 1078

                  #9
                  yeah its a totally reliable stat. Follow the JM chase system, you'll make millions.
                  Comment
                  • samgurt
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-31-10
                    • 2980

                    #10
                    Originally posted by mnpickle
                    Twins will lose... No doubt about it...
                    Comment
                    • floridagolfer
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-19-08
                      • 2757

                      #11
                      I would say the number is closer to 5 percent, but I don't have enough interest to go do the research.
                      Comment
                      • Sportsbetting123
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-01-08
                        • 1400

                        #12
                        I had never even thought of this particular scenario, but I hardly ever bet baseball. Just out of curiousity, I would like to see a few years worth of data on this.
                        Comment
                        • thebestthereis
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 03-01-09
                          • 11459

                          #13
                          If its the Padres that number is close to 100%, the Padres haven't seen home plate in years.
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                          • Joe Dogs
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-20-09
                            • 1931

                            #14
                            You can throw the cubs into the 100% category.

                            Cubs have one of the worst home field records in MLB.
                            Comment
                            • milwaukee mike
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 08-22-07
                              • 26914

                              #15
                              Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                              Where did I say I didn't agree? I'm not a stat guy, so 10% would seem low at first glance... Its an interesting stat... and could be of major use around here, if you catch my drift
                              but once the first 2 are in the book, then the odds of a 3 game sweep turn from 10% to right around 50% depending on the line
                              Comment
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