Stats Handicappers Never Win

[jjgold]

Most successful bettors do not even know most players on a team nor watch games

If you breakdown Matchups books label you a square.

I know many you enjoy the challenge of breaking down stats which is cool.


Enjoy you day


Nikos Boren
SBR Data Corp

[BIGDAY]

Business as usual

[Smoke]

Jon Cheers!

[poloyol]

Handicapping with stats was great back in the day,now internet has all that (Books adjust)with all this free info out there...They use trap lines (will not get into details)

[jjgold]

Write yourself a model and live by it

Model players only win now

[minet123]

Write yourself a model and live by it

That will have you just as broke by all star break as the stats cappers
every game and every day offer new situations
adapting on the fly and never be locked in to some stupid system

[ebbearsfb1]

Play with your rooster, and you'll never be a loser

[jjgold]

18-4 ATS
6 straight roads wins
14-8 Night games

NO

[Smoke]

18-4 ATS
6 straight roads wins
14-8 Night games

NO

[baskets]

do you want me to give you a winner, jj?

you've been grumpy lately

[jjgold]

never foreget
educational post
stop trying to breakdowns games
breakdown lines''

https://www.sbrodds.com

[rm18]

I don't see how you win without stats or knowing players has to be one or the other

[wantitall4moi]

Only two ways to win, become the book or dont bet sports.

Betting games one way is a long term losing proposition. For a lot of reasons.

[jjgold]

Only two ways to win, become the book or dont bet sports.

Betting games one way is a long term losing proposition. For a lot of reasons.

although Wanty your not a high level math guy

A few of them win

[Duff85]

I don't see how you win without stats or knowing players has to be one or the other

Only two ways to win, become the book or dont bet sports.

Betting games one way is a long term losing proposition. For a lot of reasons.

Everybody can tell you how to do it, they never did it

[jjgold]

Guys I hope you learn from me

[wantitall4moi]

Math, math, math, stats, stats, stats. These are all things books use to set a line, also what they use to adjust it. Especially in high profile games where they anticipate a lot of action. Also in niche sports where action can be seen as 'sharper'. So unless you have a much better stats program, which is highly unlikely, or have discovered some completely new math formula, which is also unlikely using these 'tools' against the books is playing right into their hands.

You can sit there and claim 'value' and 'worth' all day but the only thing that holds true value is getting both sides of the same game for a positive expectation. You can price shop and get bargain basement lines all you want the team still has to win or cover for you to collect. All bargain shopping does is keep people in the game a little longer and slows down their going broke. Because to actually profit you always have to collect more than you pay, either in losses or in vig. A 50% capper is still going to go broke even at -105 just like he is going to go broke at -110. All the math or stats in the world arent going to change that.

[jjgold]

Wanty how about playing weaker line vs Pinny???

Is that a long term win

[smoke a bowl]

Handicapping with stats was great back in the day,now internet has all that (Books adjust)with all this free info out there...They use trap lines (will not get into details)

Beware of the Trap lines. LMFsmokeabowlAO. Trap lines? Fukin right those tricky fukin books. You're killin me dude.

[wantitall4moi]

Wanty how about playing weaker line vs Pinny???

Is that a long term win

who is to say what is weak and what isnt?

You guys cite Pinnacle like it is the end all be all. I had multiple accounts at Pinnacle when I was betting full time. I could bet any amount I wanted to despite their limits. I moved the lines on probably 90% of the baseball games I bet overnight. So to guys who didnt know or dont understand they would call that a 'sharp' move, when all it was was me betting into it with a bunch of accounts. Sometimes it generated more moves, sometimes it didnt. So it was never universal. But it certainly wasnt based on 'sharp' or public money. There was one other group that also bet into pinnacles overnights pretty heavy back then, if we were on the same side it would cause issues, thats why they had to change their software a couple times. But for the most part that bunch only bet certain teams in certain situations so they had some model they went by.

But guys who think Pinnacle is some clairvoyant entity that knows everything are sadly mistaken. They take action and move their lines like everyone else. Since theyre working on a smaller hold they have to move a little more than the other guys but it generates all this talk about how 'smart' they are. But in the end if they are buried one way they have complete fire sales on games to get buy backs. Watch the spread some times. You'll see 1 or 2 cent moves all day but if the move is steadily in one direction and gets to a big difference, you'll actually sometimes see a huge move that doesnt really make sense. Like a game opens -122/114, moves around with 20-30 line updates and 30 minutes before game time is sitting at -132/ 123. Thats a penny, but not good enough, so you will often see a line like -138/129 for a short time just to offer guys a 'no brainer' number to buy back into. So theyre willing to sacrifice some free money to a few people to balance themselves off somewhat. But what also happens is they have enough fools who think they know everything that they sucker a few of them into betting the -138 (especially if some clone book moves to -140 on air).

Thats why I say using Pinnacle as a barometer is a nice way to lose your ass.

[DudleyDawson]

Most successful bettors do not even know most players on a team nor watch games

If you breakdown Matchups books label you a square.

I know many you enjoy the challenge of breaking down stats which is cool.


Enjoy you day


Nikos Boren
SBR Data Corp

Most accurate post you've ever made. I can name maybe 10 NBA players at most and have watched maybe 2 games all season, no lie. I actually find watching the NBA as horrible TV as there is. I don't even have any idea which players play which position(not kidding). All the stats and treands bullshit is meaningless.

[Thehusker]

#thisthread

[darkhat]

who is to say what is weak and what isnt?

You guys cite Pinnacle like it is the end all be all. I had multiple accounts at Pinnacle when I was betting full time. I could bet any amount I wanted to despite their limits. I moved the lines on probably 90% of the baseball games I bet overnight. So to guys who didnt know or dont understand they would call that a 'sharp' move, when all it was was me betting into it with a bunch of accounts. Sometimes it generated more moves, sometimes it didnt. So it was never universal. But it certainly wasnt based on 'sharp' or public money. There was one other group that also bet into pinnacles overnights pretty heavy back then, if we were on the same side it would cause issues, thats why they had to change their software a couple times. But for the most part that bunch only bet certain teams in certain situations so they had some model they went by.

But guys who think Pinnacle is some clairvoyant entity that knows everything are sadly mistaken. They take action and move their lines like everyone else. Since theyre working on a smaller hold they have to move a little more than the other guys but it generates all this talk about how 'smart' they are. But in the end if they are buried one way they have complete fire sales on games to get buy backs. Watch the spread some times. You'll see 1 or 2 cent moves all day but if the move is steadily in one direction and gets to a big difference, you'll actually sometimes see a huge move that doesnt really make sense. Like a game opens -122/114, moves around with 20-30 line updates and 30 minutes before game time is sitting at -132/ 123. Thats a penny, but not good enough, so you will often see a line like -138/129 for a short time just to offer guys a 'no brainer' number to buy back into. So theyre willing to sacrifice some free money to a few people to balance themselves off somewhat. But what also happens is they have enough fools who think they know everything that they sucker a few of them into betting the -138 (especially if some clone book moves to -140 on air).

Thats why I say using Pinnacle as a barometer is a nice way to lose your ass.

LOL moved 90 percent of baseball lines at pinnacle. "Lakers will be a lottery team..."

[RealSlimShady]

Nikos Boren
SBR Data Corp

Who the f\*\*k is this rooster licker, Nikos????

[BIGDAY]

Coach you just tell me when to POUND, I pound... Easy as that.