Does anyone have any tips on how to tell if a line is going to move one direction or the other.. I do look at covers and the consensus but sometimes you'll have a big % on one side and the line will move the other way.. Just looking for some tips.. thamks
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watch the leaders and youll know. covers is worthless for that.Comment -
I have developed a bit of a sense for predicting line movement - I am confident in saying I am correct well over 50% of the time - but I still consider it a crapshoot. I don't know of any formula or definite pattern. It's just a sense.
What I tend to look for are big favorites that are likely to draw public money and become even bigger favorites - like a first place ball team with a hot pitcher on the mound, or a hot team playing at home in the NBA.
Which ones are predictable? Like I say, there is no rule I know of. I basically just look at the numeral and a few stats like winning streaks and, bearing in mind that the public likes favorites a little too much, I ask myself, "Just how loony is the public going to be on this one?"
And I make my best judgement.
A general rule for me: if I'm going to bet a big dog in just about anything, I almost never do it early. More often than not the line will improve.
This isn't timely but I find that NFL home dogs that open at less than +3 go up more often than not (i.e. the away favorite will draw money).
But I couldn't count how many times I felt positive a line would move one way - and not only didn't it go that way - it took off the other.
But I'll keep an eye on this thread and see if it produces any gems.Comment -
Yup, never fails.Originally posted by Lucas
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it's just not an exact science...a lot of it is based on feel and how you feel the public will react to the number intially posted...I sometimes wager a little on the overnight line and then a little more the next day, but for the most part it's just a gut call that you learn the more you handicap games...Comment -
all i can really suggest to you bud is from personal experience.
theres a few other places that will give you consensuses. although, you really just have to really study and follow line movements on a daily basis.Comment -
i have a little feel for it, I was just wondering if anyone else had any opionons on it... other then covers where else can you get a consensus ...Comment -
it takes years and years to develop any sense of which way the line moves. I can't tell you how many times I've secured a line I thought was going to move in my favor only to move the opposite. The best you can do is to hope to be right around 55% of the time...it's pretty much a crap shoot.
Additionally....key numbers are important. For example...if a line opens up at +7.5 in a football game and you feel that is the correct play then it get it at that number. No sense in hoping it gets to +8 since that is not really a common number compared to say +7.Comment
