Early Sweet 16 Discussion...

SnickerDoodles · 03-18-12, 10:26 PM

i wouldnt put michigan state in that open parlya of yours. louisville is dangerous

k13 · 03-18-12, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by SnickerDoodles

i wouldnt put michigan state in that open parlya of yours. louisville is dangerous

So far only Kentucky is going in for sure.

Brock Landers · 03-18-12, 10:42 PM

Syracuse looked very good, should be able to handle Wisconsin

EaglesPhan36 · 03-18-12, 10:49 PM

I like Syracuse. I still think Baylor is going to fukk themselves at some point and Xavier has plenty enough to stick with them. Louisville-Michigan State will be pretty ugly. FLA-MARQ & IU-UK should be entertaining.

dogthebountyman · 03-18-12, 10:55 PM

Wisco ML is a monster play.

dogthebountyman · 03-19-12, 05:12 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

Syracuse looked very good, should be able to handle Wisconsin

Syracuse played a Kstate team missing their best player.
Wisco peaking,don't allow fast break points and for the first time they have confidence and 5+ players that can score.
Very dangerous team getting 4.5 points.
Syracuse is in for a tough one and without their big man....
Line should be 2-2.5.
Nice play on Wisco +4 or more all day.

Iwinyourmoney · 03-19-12, 05:22 AM

Early leans on Louisville & FL (ML and points)

Frisco · 03-19-12, 07:39 AM

I like all 4 dogs so far to cover. Especially like Wisky and Florida

LostBankroll · 03-19-12, 07:41 AM

marquette lay the points

Cuse0323 · 03-19-12, 07:41 AM

Tough to gauge these games, I like Florida a bit.

k13 · 03-19-12, 10:41 AM

The rest of the lines are out.

Xavier
Baylor -6

Ohio
North Carolina -10.5

N.C. State
Kansas -7.5

Cincy
Ohio State -7

thetrinity · 03-19-12, 10:45 AM

no real surprises in the lines. everything right where i had expected.

PAULYPOKER · 03-19-12, 10:45 AM

Ohio +550

Cuse0323 · 03-19-12, 10:47 AM

NC State plus 7.5 is tempting, they're playing really well lately. Though I could see Kansas blowing them out...sharp lines here, don't see any easy picks.

thetrinity · 03-19-12, 10:52 AM

agree cuse these r pretty sharp. the value will be fading the steam IMO.

milwaukee mike · 03-19-12, 11:02 AM

<<<<<<

marquette all day, crowder can't be stopped

isotopes · 03-19-12, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by dogthebountyman

Syracuse played a Kstate team missing their best player.
Wisco peaking,don't allow fast break points and for the first time they have confidence and 5+ players that can score.
Very dangerous team getting 4.5 points.
Syracuse is in for a tough one and without their big man....
Line should be 2-2.5.
Nice play on Wisco +4 or more all day.

I"m sorry to say that Syracuse did not play K-State without their best player, the K-State Player that did not play was a rebounder, and by far not their best player. Syracuse is playing the whole tourney without their big man and have adjusted. Rhakeem Christmas is a McDonalds all american and is a monster. He looked really good against K-State. If your going to hate at least get your facts straight. I don't know if Wisconsin covers or not, but this Cuse team is still a top tier team.

dogthebountyman · 03-19-12, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by isotopes

I"m sorry to say that Syracuse did not play K-State without their best player, the K-State Player that did not play was a rebounder, and by far not their best player. Syracuse is playing the whole tourney without their big man and have adjusted. Rhakeem Christmas is a McDonalds all american and is a monster. He looked really good against K-State. If your going to hate at least get your facts straight. I don't know if Wisconsin covers or not, but this Cuse team is still a top tier team.

Wisconsin is one of the tougher outs in tne tourney.
I don't care how good syracuse looked u r not covering 4.5 vs a peaking Wisconsin without ur big man and w/o fast break pts.

jjgold · 03-19-12, 12:47 PM

Louisville and Wisky stick out as locks so far

isotopes · 03-19-12, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by dogthebountyman

Wisconsin is one of the tougher outs in tne tourney.
I don't care how good syracuse looked u r not covering 4.5 vs a peaking Wisconsin without ur big man and w/o fast break pts.

I never said they were going to cover, I merely said, if your going to make a bold statement like the Syracuse win Vs. Kansas State was not telling of how good Cuse is because K-State was playing without their best player (WHICH WAS A BLANTANTLY FALSE STATEMENT) than get your facts right.

If you want to argue that Wisconsin will cover so be it, just don't give some bullshit homer argument on the boards about why they will cover, that is all.

dogthebountyman · 03-19-12, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by isotopes

I never said they were going to cover, I merely said, if your going to make a bold statement like the Syracuse win Vs. Kansas State was not telling of how good Cuse is because K-State was playing without their best player (WHICH WAS A BLANTANTLY FALSE STATEMENT) than get your facts right.

If you want to argue that Wisconsin will cover so be it, just don't give some bullshit homer argument on the boards about why they will cover, that is all.

Don't compare KSTATE without a player that had 8 double doubles this season and 2 in his last 4 games? That basically evend out n

reality ron · 03-19-12, 01:18 PM

The one team I won't consider taking is Baylor -6.
They play about as dumb basketball as any team there is.
They have a ton of talent but with the pressure of this type of game their poor basketball IQ is huge question.
Xavier isn't really very good but they will have no pressure on them and their guards are good.

dogthebountyman · 03-19-12, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by isotopes

I never said they were going to cover, I merely said, if your going to make a bold statement like the Syracuse win Vs. Kansas State was not telling of how good Cuse is because K-State was playing without their best player (WHICH WAS A BLANTANTLY FALSE STATEMENT) than get your facts right.

If you want to argue that Wisconsin will cover so be it, just don't give some bullshit homer argument on the boards about why they will cover, that is all.

Don't compare KSTATE without a player that had 8 double doubles this season and 2 in his last 4 games? That basically evend out not having Melo.

Syracuse suffered a big loss but it was masked by a big loss by Kstate.

Jayvegas420 · 03-19-12, 01:37 PM

Cats
Bears
Heels
Buckeyes

Parlayed M/L (10 u)
Spread (1 u)

10 Units on each to cover.

Kentucky vs Hoosiers

I wonder if anyone remembers who Kentucky's only regular season loss was against. I guess it doesn't matter if you subscribe to the adage "Lightning can't strike twice".

Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

Before covering over Iowa St Kentucky hadn't covered in four straight games. They've actually only covered in 3 of their last 10.

Wildcats are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
Wildcats are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.

Baylor vs Xavier

I think Xavier matches up about as well with the Bears as they did vs. the Bonnies. With two losses to St. Louis I am convinced that this could be the highest scoring game in this over-filled round of 16.

Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.

Although Baylor hasn't covered the spread in over 1/2 their games played I think this is a weak Xavier team that has struggled against teams with Baylor's playing style.

Musketeers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Musketeers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
Musketeers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

N.C. vs ohio

This ohio team is a joke. We all know who over rated South Florida was all year. I can't believe they didnt come out with a nineteen nineties line like Heels -19.5.
thats truly what I'd take them at. What Carolina did to teams like Ashville & MSV, they are going to do to ohio on Friday.

Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Tar Heels are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games.
Tar Heels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Tar Heels are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Tar Heels are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Tar Heels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.

Ohio St. vs Cinci
This is game I like the least. I still can't put money on the Bearcats, this about when they go ahead & blow their chance to get the the final four. Also if the Buckeyes lose this can only bode well for the ORANGE
This line has already moved from an open of 7 to 7.5 & will be higher than 8 before tip. Cinci cant play that slow paced game that they almost lost on Sunday night. This cant be one of those games, well it could but I dont expect it. I expect Buckeyes to control tempo of game & maybe throw some bench players in at the end after they are up by 19 or 21.
The only interesting trends I found involved the under:

Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 5-2 in Bearcats last 7 non-conference games.
Under is 7-3 in Bearcats last 10 overall.
Under is 13-6 in Bearcats last 19 neutral site games.
Under is 35-17 in Bearcats last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

hydrosmak · 03-19-12, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

<<<<<<

marquette all day, crowder can't be stopped

My 2nd half play on them bailed me out of having a terrible day. Love when trends continue!

Pride · 03-19-12, 01:43 PM

wisconsin's game will just come down to them hitting threes against the zone. if they hit them early then it opens up the inside which is considerably smaller -melo

that game is the definition of a stay away game

bobby heenan · 03-19-12, 01:57 PM

ill take 8 pts with cincy...**** it....could see them getting worked.....really outlasted a tough fsu team....obviously very thin down low...and if sullinger gets gates into quick foul trouble they are in big trouble....and they might get worked on the offensive glass

but ill take 8 or more points with that team if it gets that high

i can see baylor putting it on xavier

barza01 · 03-19-12, 02:34 PM

xavier +6 is a pretty safe bet...all games from here on in will be close.

k13 · 03-19-12, 02:39 PM

Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, Ohio State.

All winners. Don't over think.

Jayvegas420 · 03-19-12, 02:44 PM

agreed

slambam · 03-19-12, 03:24 PM

Love Baylor, big fan of NC State too. I could easily see them beating Kansas.

Jonah · 03-19-12, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

agree cuse these r pretty sharp. the value will be fading the steam IMO.

How $ was the steam on Sunday tho?

Jonah · 03-19-12, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by bobby heenan

ill take 8 pts with cincy...**** it....could see them getting worked.....really outlasted a tough fsu team....obviously very thin down low...and if sullinger gets gates into quick foul trouble they are in big trouble....and they might get worked on the offensive glass

but ill take 8 or more points with that team if it gets that high

i can see baylor putting it on xavier

True, but from what I have seen Sullinger breathes on someone the wrong way and he gets a foul call. Meanwhile Yancy gets to play football out there.

Jayvegas420 · 03-19-12, 10:04 PM

Cinci isnt a hard team to figure out, just ask the Longhorns. Last game exposed them on this as well.
Dont put too much faith in the Bearcats, they disappoint at about this time of year, every year.