Favorites win 50% Of The Time Long term

[jjgold]

You do not have something betting dogs all the time

[BIGDAY]

Actualy great advice.

[Smoke]

[mrmarket]

Talked to Brock Landers on phone yesterday coach. Rubberbands are crushing pinnacle no vig line. will you do another champagne tribute in sex dungeon???????????

[BIGDAY]

Talked to Brock Landers on phone yesterday coach. Rubberbands are crushing pinnacle no vig line. will you do another champagne tribute in sex dungeon???????????

[jjgold]

If Brock came back and got hot a champagne video would be in order.

[Deuce]

Let me know how hitting 50% on -110 works out for you.

[jjgold]

Deuce nothing works period
Hit the books hard

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Not in soccer

[mrmarket]

Deuce nothing works period
Hit the books hard

Coach why are you discouraging people?????? Just need to concentrate harder, read articles from ESPN, maybe solid capping service and chase system. Not to mention you win more if you bet more money the likely culprit of people not winning is they not betting enough!!!!!!!!!!!!

[k13]

Very close JJ.

51/49 NFL
50.5/49.5 NBA
49/51 NCAAB
48.5/51.5 NCAAF
58/42 NHL


Books turn every spread into a coin toss long term.

[MiAMiEDDY]

Very close JJ.

51/49 NFL
50.5/49.5 NBA
49/51 NCAAB
48.5/51.5 NCAAF
58/42 NHL


Books turn every spread into a coin toss long term.

Now that makes more sense.

Hey jj let me ask you something...
if favorites hit 50% of the time long term how much do undedogs hit? ?

I really hope you were trying to be clever and say "its sll the same shit"

[wantitall4moi]

Not sure where people get their numbers but just in the NFL versus the BEST available numbers dogs are nearly 54.25% on the blind since 1992.

Since 1992 there have been 4958 games played, Dogs with the best available number are 2691-2318-38 ATS. Thats 54.3 Win rate, 55% non loss rate.

To do a little comparison Favs with the best number are 2474-2451-33. Thats 49.9% win rate, 50.56% non loss rate.

Some guys may ask how there can be such a difference. one is 54.5 and the other is 49.9 that is over 100%. Answer is simple, lines move and getting the best line (not always possible before the game starts) will make the difference, as it is the difference is 'only' around 160 games, which is about 3.5% of the time. Which is pretty much 'correct'.

That basically means a coin flip guy who ALWAYS gets the best number (regardless of vig attached) will have a 3.5% 'advantage' versus just picking a game and betting any old number. That is in a vacuum and basically picking every game.

The 'skill' of a guy will overcome this 3.5% though, at least theoretically. Meaning someone that has the ability to pick wnner should be able to pick close to 55%. Of course guys will claim that is impossible and claim 53.5 is a 'true' test of a guys ability to win. but if a guy is picking only 53.5% that means he is statistically picking what anyone could who always got the best number.

Basketball is similar as well.

These are of course simply over all results based on every game played in that time frame. There are sub sets and specific situations that are much better or worse depending on the side.

The statement that the pointspread 'evens it all out' is a fallacy. Because that isnt the case at all.

[Jaug]

Dogs are generally a better bet. Hitting more like 51/49.

[k13]

No one here is going to get the best number every game. How relevant are games pre-online boom?

2011-12

NCAAB 3185 games
NCAAF 811 games
NBA 533 games
NFL 256 games

= 4785

That's basically the same sample size as the previous 20 years of the NFL you are talking about.

You think you are going to hit 54% next year in the NFL with all dogs or the following year?

Highly doubt it.

[wantitall4moi]

No one here is going to get the best number every game. How relevant are games pre-online boom?

2011-12

NCAAB 3185 games
NCAAF 811 games
NBA 533 games
NFL 256 games

= 4785

That's basically the same sample size as the previous 20 years of the NFL you are talking about.

You think you are going to hit 54% next year in the NFL with all dogs or the following year?

Highly doubt it.

Best available line on dogs were 141-120-0 last year. Including play offs, that exactly 54%

Betting the dogs has an inherent build in advantage. as shown by how best available on favs is 2-3% less effective a position. I can break it down every year. I think maybe 3 years since 1992 favs have had a decent result.

Getitng best available only matters in 3.5% of the games, a guy who knows what he is doing is and not betting every game is going to avoid most of them.

Stats guys can figure it out but a 55% capper with a 3.5% overall chance are going to have less than 2% expectation so thats less than 2 bets out of every 100 you make where you 'need' the best line. That also doesnt mean a loser, that also includes pushes.

NFL is for suckers anyway, even when I was gambling full time I didnt do a lot with it. Just spot plays. NCAA is much more reliable and many more betting options.

[mrmarket]

the thread that keeps on delivering!

[k13]

Best available line on dogs were 141-120-0 last year. Including play offs, that exactly 54%

Betting the dogs has an inherent build in advantage. as shown by how best available on favs is 2-3% less effective a position. I can break it down every year. I think maybe 3 years since 1992 favs have had a decent result.

Getitng best available only matters in 3.5% of the games, a guy who knows what he is doing is and not betting every game is going to avoid most of them.

Stats guys can figure it out but a 55% capper with a 3.5% overall chance are going to have less than 2% expectation so thats less than 2 bets out of every 100 you make where you 'need' the best line. That also doesnt mean a loser, that also includes pushes.

NFL is for suckers anyway, even when I was gambling full time I didnt do a lot with it. Just spot plays. NCAA is much more reliable and many more betting options.

If you play around with enough numbers you could make faves 54% last year too.

SD vs Den opens -6, you take +6, line goes to -3.5, I take -3.5

We both win. yay.

I don't think there were enough "bad" numbers to go from 49% to 54%, closer to 52.5% but I was not including playoffs which faves were 4-7 but I guess that's just semantics.

The thing is unless you can predict the future you can't get the best number. Some are only available for seconds. So hitting 54% with the best hand picked numbers out of heaven is not worth talking about.

You can start a thread next year and pick every dog in the NFL. Say the Book and number.
We'll see what % it ends up as. Should be fun.

[poochiecollins]

Interesting. I'd like to see:
* Last 5 or 10 years.
* Results disregarding the "best" line, using the most common final line.
* If there's any variance between sports.
* Public underdogs.

I read some article a few years ago about public dogs being a slight positive bet, on average, in NFL, NBA playoff, and high profile college games. I remember the number 54%. I don't know what to Google to pull the article up, but I remember having the impression that betting against the public only circumstantially had any advantage (good majority of public dogs are underdogs). I don't think the author went terribly far back in seasons/years.

[wantitall4moi]

If you play around with enough numbers you could make faves 54% last year too.

SD vs Den opens -6, you take +6, line goes to -3.5, I take -3.5

We both win. yay.

I don't think there were enough "bad" numbers to go from 49% to 54%, closer to 52.5% but I was not including playoffs which faves were 4-7 but I guess that's just semantics.

The thing is unless you can predict the future you can't get the best number. Some are only available for seconds. So hitting 54% with the best hand picked numbers out of heaven is not worth talking about.

You can start a thread next year and pick every dog in the NFL. Say the Book and number.
We'll see what % it ends up as. Should be fun.

No you cant, best available on the favs gave results of 133-126-2. Against best available at every book and in some cases more than -120 vig.

I am not going to throw stuff up all over the place for nothing but I will give you results versus closers at Pinnacle year by year going back to 2006. These are regular season only no play offs.

Favorites (numbers will vary as some games closed at a PK em line even if ML wasnt -110 both ways)

2006 153-100 SU 110-137-6 ATS
2007 176-73 SU 128-114-10 ATS
2008 172-77-1 SU 121-126-3 ATS
2009 178-74 SU 123-126-3 ATS
2010 167-86 SU 122-125-5 ATS
2011 172-78 SU 120-121-9 ATS

Combined since 2006 favs are 1018-488-1 SU And 724-749-36 ATS.

So simply against generic closers faves are only 48% ATS. Even if you want to add the pushes into a win (sloppy way) Faves are still only 50.4%. Dogs as is are 49.6% and if you add the pushes 52%.

Now against best available (which is a lot more accurate than simply assuming a push will be a win both ways) dogs are at over 53.5%, favs still dont make it to 52%. I am not going to post those results you'll just have to trust me.

Basically books post a much more accurate number and people bet the favorites enough at some point to make the best available on the dog a winner on the blind.

Does this all really matter? Not really the only thing it really proves is the books are much better at setting a line than the public is, since best available beats the closers every time. As it is the best available and the closer are the same (not counting vig discrepencies) less than 80% of the time. Some of that can be attributed to buying back, but not all 20% of it.

Like I say football is a suckers game and even if you bet every game youre going to get around 260 plays a season over 20 weeks. Thats basically a weeks worth of play in most other sports. Bad vig, bad odds, worse numbers. Basically the safest and sanest approach is to bet dogs on the blind and hope, even then if MLs were more fair taking the dogs on the ML would be the better play as well. But since holds are ridiculous it doesnt always turn out that way.

As far as getting the best number, with screens and paying attention anyone with any brains and even a little practice should be getting the best number 95% of the time. But like I said even that isnt really going to make a difference to someone who picks and chooses his spots. The more 'skill' you have the less likely you will to bet games where the spread is actually going to matter. As I said it really only matters in about 3.5% of the cases. Even the generic push rate is only around 2%. that means best available is going to less than double that advantage. Meaning simply NOT getting a push improves you 2% on its own. best available adds another 1.4% or so difference. So as shown above NOT pushing adds 36 games, best available would add another 28 games on top of that. Not all those are outright wins, some of the best available turn a l loss to a push, but like I said I am not going to show you everything. But because the amount of games is som small to begin with 64 games to a 'positive' result is a huge difference over all. (well 4.2%... 64/1507) But like I said most guys that are spot betting arent going to be playing a lot of those games to begin with. But it is still enough to turn a coin flip guy into a winner (assuming they keep their vig under -118 average.)