any value in oscars???

InTheDrink · 02-13-12, 01:12 AM

Never even heard of half those movies

CanuckG · 02-13-12, 02:51 AM

Jean Dujardin is -102 at Pinny it's mind boggling usually guy who wins SAG award goes on to win the Oscar and I've seen both movies with George Clooney who is -115 and can't see Dujardin losing.

Also Meryl Streep +111 as well gut feeling she's due for a win here they always shun her but hard since she's against a black chick and you know the race card is brought up and whenever there's a chance for a black girl to win they'll give it to her.

The Artist should get a lot of awards that night

nyplayer33 · 02-13-12, 03:24 AM

good feedback canuck

beefcake · 02-16-12, 03:18 PM

Got the help at 25-1 back when.No value now. Jean D is still a good bet..Take it,its already falling since the globes and SAG

Smoke · 02-16-12, 03:23 PM

Nope.. No value

CanuckG · 02-16-12, 03:23 PM

Dujardin -110 now

bobbyk1133 · 02-17-12, 12:14 AM

Bet the house on Tree of Life Best Cinematography

byronbb · 02-17-12, 12:50 AM

how the hell the artist is fav over descendants or tinker taylor spy which isnt even nominated is baffling to me.

CanuckG · 02-17-12, 02:15 AM

Originally posted by byronbb

how the hell the artist is fav over descendants or tinker taylor spy which isnt even nominated is baffling to me.

How is it not? Have you seen either films?

byronbb · 02-17-12, 02:16 AM

Originally posted by CanuckG

How is it not? Have you seen either films?

Why would I make such a statement if I had not seen all 3.........

CanuckG · 02-17-12, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by byronbb

Why would I make such a statement if I had not seen all 3.........

Then you would know why The Artist are heavy favourites. You know the the Oscars are predictable and the voters love these foreign films especially one that is silent which don't come around often. Gives the perception that the voters actually have a global taste in films. Also, The Artist winning best film could possibly make up for Dujardin possibly not winning best actor as we all know everyone has a hard on for Clooney.

darko3131 · 02-18-12, 07:02 PM

Pretty lame board this year. Jean and Viola seem to be the steam plays right now but both races are up in the air. The other big ones seem to be wrapped up. Longshots? It looks like its going to win but I hated Rango, Puss in Boots 15/1 worth a few bucks. Decendents could be upset for screenplay, went Hugo at 7/1.

Nismo · 02-18-12, 07:15 PM

Got a lot of The Help at +2000 a little ExtremleyLoud at +5000

Domer · 02-20-12, 05:09 PM

viola davis should be an easy winner. she won both awards voted on by americans, and got a standing ovation both times. plus the help was really a phenomenon this year.

i doubt if even half the academy voters have seen the iron lady, its a rubbish film.

BrigadierPudding · 02-21-12, 12:56 AM

The Descendants to win adapted screenplay is -335 at Bookmaker. That has value. It won the Writers Guild today and virtually every other major screenplay award. It should be -1500 minimum.

LVHerbie · 02-21-12, 04:56 AM

Kindof like superbowl bridge jumpers alot of the huge favorites are virtual shoo-ins to win with the long shots having no chance (i.e. you won't be seeing any fluke first score safeties)...

As close to free money as you can get...

aceking · 02-21-12, 12:11 PM

bafta , sag , golden globe , cannes .

clooney has no chance .

sickler · 02-21-12, 12:40 PM

I haven't seen any of those movies.

darko3131 · 02-21-12, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by LVHerbie

Kindof like superbowl bridge jumpers alot of the huge favorites are virtual shoo-ins to win with the long shots having no chance (i.e. you won't be seeing any fluke first score safeties)... As close to free money as you can get...

If this is a general statement I'd be careful because I've made good money on longshots in spots (had a couple hundred on Alice in Wonderland +600 last year, how many wrote off esperanza spalding at +10000 as having no chance.) but if your talking specifically about this year I agree there seems to be more chalk than usual. A good way to attack this is getting into office pools and such. Most people won't look at the odds and you can clean up with all the heavy chalk. I won my office pool and a radio station Grammy and Oscar contest last year doing this.

I just took a good look at the categorys for the first time. I really loved Hugo and I'm trying to find a place for it to score an upset but I now see everyone is expecting Decendents to win screenplay. I'm buying that back and loading up on Cinematography instead at 7/1. Artist seems to have value in costumes though at +130. I'm on Viola and skipping Actor. I'm bridgejumping Supporting actor because 5dimes is offering a fair price ONLY -2500. Not usually my thing but I haven't seen one person pick anyone else ever seems like a Heath Ledger lock to me.

Also where are the Razzie odds?

LVHerbie · 02-21-12, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by darko3131

If this is a general statement I'd be careful because I've made good money on longshots in spots (had a couple hundred on Alice in Wonderland +600 last year, how many wrote off esperanza spalding at +10000 as having no chance.) but if your talking specifically about this year I agree there seems to be more chalk than usual. A good way to attack this is getting into office pools and such. Most people won't look at the odds and you can clean up with all the heavy chalk. I won my office pool and a radio station Grammy and Oscar contest last year doing this.

I just took a good look at the categorys for the first time. I really loved Hugo and I'm trying to find a place for it to score an upset but I now see everyone is expecting Decendents to win screenplay. I'm buying that back and loading up on Cinematography instead at 7/1. Artist seems to have value in costumes though at +130. I'm on Viola and skipping Actor. I'm bridgejumping Supporting actor because 5dimes is offering a fair price ONLY -2500. Not usually my thing but I haven't seen one person pick anyone else ever seems like a Heath Ledger lock to me.

Also where are the Razzie odds?

Yea, it was more a statement of where to start looking as I wasn't arguing that you could blindly bet chalk and make money... But if you do a little homework in pricing things like these and pick your spots there is often money (relative to the limits) to be made and my experience is it usually isn't with the long shots...

Currently I think I've got about 4 or 5 bets made and will probably make a couple more but it would be pointless to share them as half the battle is finding the best market price...

CWD · 02-21-12, 04:38 PM

i can't remember the last time anything other than the favorite or second choice won a major category. with so many dead on voter polls there really aren't many upsets, the year crash won best picture the odds had dropped pretty low by the weekend of the awards so if its going to happen you will see some kind of drop in odds when a poll or story comes out. back in 2000 i remember they took everything off the board the week of the awards when one of the polls came out it was basically a done deal and since then its been chalk city. oscar betting was looser way back than it is now they have tightened up the odds in a big way the last 10 years.

that being said i am taking a shot with hugo for best picture and maybe a loooooong shot with melissa mccarthy for supporting actress

LVHerbie · 02-21-12, 04:49 PM

Although I will add that the only plus money bet I made was on Clooney at +125 and not sure how much I'm liking it given the discussion here and elsewhere...

CWD · 02-21-12, 04:51 PM

here is a good article

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/02/16/oscar-predictions-dave-karger-2/?ew_packageID=20311937

beefcake · 02-21-12, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by darko3131

If this is a general statement I'd be careful because I've made good money on longshots in spots (had a couple hundred on Alice in Wonderland +600 last year, how many wrote off esperanza spalding at +10000 as having no chance.) but if your talking specifically about this year I agree there seems to be more chalk than usual. A good way to attack this is getting into office pools and such. Most people won't look at the odds and you can clean up with all the heavy chalk. I won my office pool and a radio station Grammy and Oscar contest last year doing this.

I just took a good look at the categorys for the first time. I really loved Hugo and I'm trying to find a place for it to score an upset but I now see everyone is expecting Decendents to win screenplay. I'm buying that back and loading up on Cinematography instead at 7/1. Artist seems to have value in costumes though at +130. I'm on Viola and skipping Actor. I'm bridgejumping Supporting actor because 5dimes is offering a fair price ONLY -2500. Not usually my thing but I haven't seen one person pick anyone else ever seems like a Heath Ledger lock to me.

Also where are the Razzie odds?

Yeah I was thinking the same thing! Razzies!

beefcake · 02-21-12, 06:11 PM

I really cant believe a golden globe winner in Williams is now over 30-1 at some markets to win Actress.Has that ever happened? Maybe
Davis and Streep split the vote and Michelle pulls off an all-time stunner.?

CWD · 02-21-12, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

I really cant believe a golden globe winner in Williams is now over 30-1 at some markets to win Actress.Has that ever happened? Maybe
Davis and Streep split the vote and Michelle pulls off an all-time stunner.?

she is 60-1 at the greek right now and 18-1 at intertops

Boscoe · 02-21-12, 09:30 PM

Surprised bovada doesn't have razzies. BetED used to offer them. Still pissed they split.

trytrytry · 02-21-12, 09:33 PM

hugo for best picture is the only huge long shot I see with a chance in major categories..

CWD · 02-22-12, 01:39 AM

found some razzie odds from a movie site so not officially from an online book but boy these were some bad movies

Jack And Jill 5/4
Bucky Larson 9/2
Breaking Dawn Part 1 11/2
Transformers Dark Side Of The Moon 8-1
New Years Eve 9-1

LVHerbie · 02-22-12, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by Boscoe

Surprised bovada doesn't have razzies. BetED used to offer them. Still pissed they split.

I read they are now annoucing nominations on Oscar night and waiting for April Fool's day to give out the awards...

Boscoe · 02-22-12, 08:47 AM

makes sense about the razzies.

a few more categories are up now. does paradise lost take best doc with the wm3 being released?

<table class="lines" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" width="auto"><tbody><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td style="width: 301px;">Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory</td><td style="width: 203px;"> <input id="editx" name="C_184" size="4" maxlength="5"> +120</td></tr><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td>Pina</td><td> <input id="editx" name="C_185" size="4" maxlength="5"> +175</td></tr><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td>Undefeated</td><td> <input id="editx" name="C_186" size="4" maxlength="5"> +250</td></tr><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td>Hell And Back Again</td><td> <input id="editx" name="C_187" size="4" maxlength="5"> +600</td></tr><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td>If A Tree Falls: ASOTELF</td><td> <input id="editx" name="C_188" size="4" maxlength="5"> +1000</td></tr></tbody></table>

CWD · 02-23-12, 01:37 AM

Originally posted by Boscoe

makes sense about the razzies.

a few more categories are up now. does paradise lost take best doc with the wm3 being released?

<table class="lines" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" width="auto"><tbody><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td style="width: 301px;">Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory</td><td style="width: 203px;"> <input id="editx" name="C_184" size="4" maxlength="5"> +120</td></tr><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td>Pina</td><td> <input id="editx" name="C_185" size="4" maxlength="5"> +175</td></tr><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td>Undefeated</td><td> <input id="editx" name="C_186" size="4" maxlength="5"> +250</td></tr><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td>Hell And Back Again</td><td> <input id="editx" name="C_187" size="4" maxlength="5"> +600</td></tr><tr class="linesFuturesRow"><td>If A Tree Falls: ASOTELF</td><td> <input id="editx" name="C_188" size="4" maxlength="5"> +1000</td></tr></tbody></table>

you would think an hbo doc would get an emmy kind of a joke its nominated for an oscar

Vaughany · 02-24-12, 06:00 PM

Played the Artist dude to get best actor at 8/11

brumbies · 02-25-12, 02:32 AM

lol The Adventures of Tintin not even nominated for best animated feature despite winning the Globes.