Need help with a crazy super bowl prop bet

[RedSox88]

haha MJT the ONLY reason i made this bet is for two reasons:

1. he has always been a trust fund baby and has more money than god

2. They day we made all these bets i had come back from a 5/10 NLH session at Foxwoods and won over $3K so i just said what the hell lol

[RedSox88]

Shari,

I honestly might take your advice i mean if the shoe was on the other foot and he asked me to cancel ofc i would say yes for two reasons:

1. i could still lose

2. if my bet won i would feel like a scumbag accepting the money from him

[shari91]

I should say yeah ok yellow could come out... however it's not coming out if the Pats win and it didn't come out when the Giants won last time.


2001 Super Bowl XXXV (35): Yellow (Ravens)
2002 Super Bowl XXXVI (36): None (Patriots)
2003 Super Bowl XXXVII (37): Purple (Buccaneers)
2004 Super Bowl XXXVIII (38): None (Patriots)
2005 Super Bowl XXXIX (39): Clear (Patriots)
2006 Super Bowl XL (40): Clear (Steelers)
2007 Super Bowl XLI (41): Clear (Colts)
2008 Super Bowl XLII (42): Clear (Giants)
2009 Super Bowl XLIII (43): Yellow (Steelers)
2010 Super Bowl XLIV (44): Orange (Saints)
2011 Super Bowl XLV (45): Orange (Packers)

[illAdelph]

Hahaha you degenerate.

Seriously bro cancel the yellow Gatorade wager. You have to do it. He isn't going to hold it against you.

Now as for the tails wager??
Shoulda just went giants! NFC has hit 14 straight and ill continue to ride it out til it ends

[RedSox88]

yea i hear ya honestly i wouldnt even care if yellow was an underdog just because of the stats

but the fact that the pats coach absolutley will not be dumped on by anything else is just stupid esp since they r favored to win

[GamblerSpirit]

I should say yeah ok yellow could come out... however it's not coming out if the Pats win and it didn't come out when the Giants won last time.


2001 Super Bowl XXXV (35): Yellow (Ravens)
2002 Super Bowl XXXVI (36): None (Patriots)
2003 Super Bowl XXXVII (37): Purple (Buccaneers)
2004 Super Bowl XXXVIII (38): None (Patriots)
2005 Super Bowl XXXIX (39): Clear (Patriots)
2006 Super Bowl XL (40): Clear (Steelers)
2007 Super Bowl XLI (41): Clear (Colts)
2008 Super Bowl XLII (42): Clear (Giants)
2009 Super Bowl XLIII (43): Yellow (Steelers)
2010 Super Bowl XLIV (44): Orange (Saints)
2011 Super Bowl XLV (45): Orange (Packers)

OMG All hail SHARI!!

[RedSox88]

14 straight what? heads?

[RoadFavorites$$$]

Considering the information just posted, I would tell your friend that you'll keep yellow, but to make things even, you also want NO bath to count as a win for you. That evens things up.

[shari91]

Shari,

I honestly might take your advice i mean if the shoe was on the other foot and he asked me to cancel ofc i would say yes for two reasons:

1. i could still lose

2. if my bet won i would feel like a scumbag accepting the money from him

I think you should just explain to him that you have a lot of money spread out on this game already and you now know you got hooped with the odds. The yellow isn't coming. Or I guess it could be realistically no. He's got a shot at you with clear, clear... and you've got a shot with yellow with teams that aren't even in the SB.

If he's a good friend of 10yrs, he'll laugh it off, say yeah let's do it for a hundred and give you shit for a few weeks if/when you lose. This wasn't a fair bet at all. Fair enough you made it but if you can try to get out of it, you may as well, no?

[RedSox88]

No bath certainly is an option i was considering but id have to say they wouldnt make up for his huge water advantage it would help but the actual odds of no liquid being dumped is like 1%

[illAdelph]

Considering the information just posted, I would tell your friend that you'll keep yellow, but to make things even, you also want NO bath to count as a win for you. That evens things up.

Id have to disagree..

Just look at the percentages. More often then not, there is a Gatorade bath.

Id take it at 1.5 odds

[RedSox88]

yea shari i agree thats what im gonna try and do just get out of it all together

problem here is hes an action junkie and is gonna want me to put that 1000 somewhere else which means ill most likley end up with 3K on giants indtead of 2K which would be fine with me at least its not dead money

[illAdelph]

14 straight what? heads?

NFC team has won the last 14 coin-tosses

[RoadFavorites$$$]

Id have to disagree..

Just look at the percentages. More often then not, there is a Gatorade bath.

Id take it at 1.5 odds

66.67% of the time that the patriots have won the super bowl with Bill there has been no bath.

Considering that, I think no bath evens out the bet.

[RedSox88]

ok is it anyone else or is all this talk just wanting to make you put ur entire bankroll on clear liquid at +100 lol

Im not gonna lie if i get this bet cancelled i may throw 500 on clear for even money online lol

[RedSox88]

im not betting on which side wins NFC or AFC im simply betting heads or tails a true 50/50

[RedSox88]

also do all u guys live on west coast or are there other degens like me up at 448 in the morning

[illAdelph]

yea shari i agree thats what im gonna try and do just get out of it all together

problem here is hes an action junkie and is gonna want me to put that 1000 somewhere else which means ill most likley end up with 3K on giants indtead of 2K which would be fine with me at least its not dead money

Under 27.5 first half..

I honestly wouldnt lay that much on one potential outcome.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

Bill obviously hates getting hit, so if the Patriots have a comfortable lead towards the end (not within one possession) I'd expect him to be able to avoid it. No bath might be the winner here.

[RedSox88]

adelph i do agree with not putting all eggs in one basket but if i had to bet a total for the half itd be on the over but that doesnt matter i see what the point is that you're making....

might consider that thnaks

[illAdelph]

also do all u guys live on west coast or are there other degens like me up at 448 in the morning

Yup its 4:48 in the morning lol..

And I understand what your bet is regarding the coin toss. Just providing some facts.

Roadfavorites- valid point.

[shari91]

The only props I'm contemplating are Madonna songs and this bath thing now. Sides are too hard. It's like people bet the most money this time of the year when the market is most efficient, right? Same as you see people flock to tennis Grand Slam Finals when there are billions around the world wagered on it. So I'm going to avoid it and just try to peg off something silly. I graded quite a few of the NCAAB games tonight and saw how spot on those lines were. I'm not messing with Vegas during SB

[RedSox88]

Also, not to thread jack my own thread but i need some advice here

(obviously not trying to gloat just get some real input)

Fact: I am a winning poker player, have been for 4 of the 7 years i have been playing (last four). I have been playing all the time and this is the only reason i dont have a job and am still able to bet money on sports

Fact: I am a losing sports better.

So with the above info one would assume i would just stick to poker but ive gotten so comfortable with it that it seems so much like a job that i dont even like it anymore. Driving down to foxwoods to play 2-5 or 5-10 used to be my dream and now its a chore. Odds are ill have a winning day or at least winning month but it has become too much like punching in and out

On the other hand i suck at sports betting but have an intense love for it like im sure most of us here.

I graduated college with a double major accounting and stats and just want you opinion here:

Is it worth even trying to put the effort in to becoming a profitable sports bettor or should i just stick to poker 8 hours a day and gamble on sports at night like i do now?

Normally i can succeed at what i am passinate about but i just feel these line makers mixed with the vig make sports betting just to dam hard to profit at

makes poker seem easy

thoughts?

[illAdelph]

The only props I'm contemplating are Madonna songs and this bath thing now. Sides are too hard. It's like people bet the most money this time of the year when the market is most efficient, right? Same as you see people flock to tennis Grand Slam Finals when there are billions around the world wagered on it. So I'm going to avoid it and just try to peg off something silly.

I laid $ on ocho cinco first td of game +3500.
Couldn't pass it up...

Both teams hit a fg over 33 yds +165 has some great value.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

screw the super bowl... take Illinois -6 tomorrow. No way Northwestern hangs with them.

[RedSox88]

Shari i agree with you no reason to bet alot just cause its the super bowl nail a few fun props and keep it fun

Im honestly going to do that next year sometimes its just fun to watch a good game of football instead of thinking about $$ all the time

[RoadFavorites$$$]

Also, not to thread jack my own thread but i need some advice here

(obviously not trying to gloat just get some real input)

Fact: I am a winning poker player, have been for 4 of the 7 years i have been playing (last four). I have been playing all the time and this is the only reason i dont have a job and am still able to bet money on sports

Fact: I am a losing sports better.

So with the above info one would assume i would just stick to poker but ive gotten so comfortable with it that it seems so much like a job that i dont even like it anymore. Driving down to foxwoods to play 2-5 or 5-10 used to be my dream and now its a chore. Odds are ill have a winning day or at least winning month but it has become too much like punching in and out

On the other hand i suck at sports betting but have an intense love for it like im sure most of us here.

I graduated college with a double major accounting and stats and just want you opinion here:

Is it worth even trying to put the effort in to becoming a profitable sports bettor or should i just stick to poker 8 hours a day and gamble on sports at night like i do now?

Normally i can succeed at what i am passinate about but i just feel these line makers mixed with the vig make sports betting just to dam hard to profit at

makes poker seem easy

thoughts?

If this is a sincere post, the only advice anyone could give you that would be any good is keep playing poker and if/when you ever become a profitable sports gambler that will sustain you, then you can drop poker. Dropping poker before you start winning sports would be silly.

[RedSox88]

i understand what your saying roadfavorite but to become profitable i feel would take a rediculous amount of time

for example gathering vast amounts of historical data and pumping them into spreadsheets and constantly updating and trying to beat the line makers.

I would have to give up poker to even try it

[RoadFavorites$$$]

I disagree... I think watching the games is far more important than any stats you're going to throw to me.

The other misconception is that you have to study everything to really gain a profitable edge. If you focus on a couple of conferences in conference play (any sport really) than there you go. Profit.

[RedSox88]

also im not saying that i could even be a profitable sports better im just thinking with a background in stats i could certainly give it a valid try

as for now my sports bets consists of a 5 min google search and hitting the confirm wager button im not gonna lie lol

[illAdelph]

Sustain your income.

Establish a bankroll and just continue to learn. You seem like an intelligent dude and yes, it is possible. Just tread very lightly as it can become gruesome from a financial standpoint at times.

Don't ever forget that 99% of people in the world DO punch a time clock every day. Cant work their own hours. Have a jerkoff boss.

I understand you've become used to it, don't blame ya one bit. But it could be much much worse.

[RedSox88]

Road,

I feel it would be way easier to focus on one sport or section like you mentioned and just not bet anything else other than the one area u REALLY understand and know

While thats a good idea i feel A this might lose my love of sports betting and B its not an all year affair

the more i think about it poker stopped being fun when i put serious work at it and sports betting would probably end up the same to be honest

[illAdelph]

I disagree... I think watching the games is far more important than any stats you're going to throw to me.

The other misconception is that you have to study everything to really gain a profitable edge. If you focus on a couple of conferences in conference play (any sport really) than there you go. Profit.

[shari91]

I laid $ on ocho cinco first td of game +3500.
Couldn't pass it up...

Both teams hit a fg over 33 yds +165 has some great value.

I'm going to get on the fg one

screw the super bowl... take Illinois -6 tomorrow. No way Northwestern hangs with them.

will tail this too

Shari i agree with you no reason to bet alot just cause its the super bowl nail a few fun props and keep it fun

Im honestly going to do that next year sometimes its just fun to watch a good game of football instead of thinking about $$ all the time

And yes... people go crazy at this time of year and I understand why because it's exciting. But it's not smart. I'm pretty sure all the actual pro guys I know are betting props and not laying big money on a side. Although I'm sure others will come in here and say differently. But that's where the value is if you can figure that stuff out ( I cannot however so I just guess )

[RedSox88]

Adelph,

very true. I hear it all the time from my friends. My buddy (who is wayyyyy smarter than me) is an actuary for United Healthcare.. we will hang out and hell bitch about his job and then i start bitching about mine and i ALWAYS get laughed at

people dont understand how much of a job poker is like

although yes not having a boss and keeping my own hours rocks pretty hard