The Birthday Problem. Set the line...

[JohnGalt2341]

Imagine that you work for a Sporstbook and you are in charge of Setting this Line: There are 23 random people in a room... what are the odds that 2 of them share the same Birthday(not year). Set the line:

Yes, 2 of them have the same Birthday.

No, none of them have the same Birthday.

[jgilmartin]

Yes -112
No -108

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Yes +1400
No -1800

[milwaukee mike]

yes -110
no -110

[antifoil]

50.632301%

[mathdotcom]

yes -110
no -110

Correct

But I prefer to be more positive

yes -105
no -105

[JohnGalt2341]

Damn... you guys are too good. I guess I'm the last person to know about this. Can I bet Yes at your Sportsbook UntilTheNDofTimE?

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Correct But I prefer to be more positive yes -105 no -105

im sure the op will explain after but how is this a even proposition. Ive met thousands in my lifetime and only had 1 who had the same birthday as mine and only know a handful of people who share birthdays. 23 random people in a room would yield a nearly 50% proposition? interesting.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Damn... you guys are too good. I guess I'm the last person to know about this. Can I bet Yes at your Sportsbook UntilTheNDofTimE?

sure cause mine isnt open for business, already got busted

[JohnGalt2341]

With just 57 people it becomes a 99% chance.

[antifoil]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

i just used google to find the answer.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem i just used google to find the answer.

just searched now

[FourLengthsClear]

im sure the op will explain after but how is this a even proposition. Ive met thousands in my lifetime and only had 1 who had the same birthday as mine and only know a handful of people who share birthdays. 23 random people in a room would yield a nearly 50% proposition? interesting.

It is not a question of them sharing a birthday with only you. Any 2 of the 23 people can share a birthday for the result to be YES.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

It is not a question of them sharing a birthday with only you. Any 2 of the 23 people can share a birthday for the result to be YES.

I took that into consideration still found it somewhat farfetched, after reading into it i understand.

[antifoil]

what you need is a birthday distribution chart if you want to bet those odds. if you can find some clumping of birthday's wouldn't yes be a +EV bet?

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

what you need is a birthday distribution chart if you want to bet those odds. if you can find some clumping of birthday's wouldn't yes be a +EV bet?

Everyone ***** in the holiday season. Many august n september birthdays

[milwaukee mike]

Everyone ***** in the holiday season. Many august n september birthdays

i have a theory here - almost all the people i know with november/december birthdays are FEMALE.

since we all start out female until about the 2nd or 3rd month, i thought it's so damn hot and humid here in june/july that babies are too hot/lazy to change into males

[JohnGalt2341]

since we all start out female until about the 2nd or 3rd month

I think this is why men have nipples?

I have a theory on Birthdays too... I was the 5th born in my family. My parents had me in their early 30's. I like to pretend that they only had sex a total of 5 times but I came up with a different theory that isn't too far off. Birthday sex... I was born just slightly 9 months after my Mom's birthday. And I was slightly late... If I was given -110 odds I would be willing to be that I was conceived on my Mothers birthday. Anyone else have this experience? Do the math. I just figured this out a couple of years ago.