the imminent crash of the dow jones

[wtf]

I know this dude is old, but his variables are proven through time, be careful this year

also when you see some of the squares on this site becoming bullish it is time to run

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/

[FourLengthsClear]

After the election.

[Emily_Haines]

It has had it's little run up to get all the fish back in the game for fleecing rd 2

[wtf]

After the election.

the drop starts next week

[rkelly110]

I've read somewhere, the dow has dropped 80% of the time during the last
year of a presidency. Like wtf says, be careful with the bulls.

[jw]

Or you can go the other way ... and be waiting for the imminent rally.

;0)

You can prove anything with statistics.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/297370

... financial experts believe the stock market could be set for a bumper 12 months as historically rallies in January are a good indicator of what happens to the market during the rest of the year.

If European leaders can finally settle the eurozone crisis the FTSE 100 could soar by as much as 20 per cent, according to some commentators.
Last week’s rise – the best weekly performance since 1989 – could be the start of a rally which could help repair the damage done to retirement schemes during a year of turmoil in 2011. Stuart Grennan, of Gallagher Employee Benefits, said: “At last some good news for pension savers which
will give a much-needed boost to those approaching retirement, looking to maximise their pension income.”

Rupert Robinson, at Schroders Private Banking, added: “Investors look to a new year as a new beginning, so January reflects the underlying confidence and fear for the year. If markets like the outlook, January shows this.”

Since 1945, there have been 45 years out of 67 when the market went up in January. Shares rose 37 times in the next 11 months.
Those who follow the “January indicator”, which looks at market performance on the first and fifth day of each year, also expect gains over the next 11 months.

In nine out of the past 11 years, a market rise on the first day of trading signalled a positive year overall. In seven of 11, a positive return on the first and the fifth trading day also indicated positive annual results.

The FTSE 100 was up 2.23 per cent on January 3 – the first trading day of the year – and another 0.72 per cent over five days. It rose to 5741 last Thursday, its highest level since August, before ending the week at 5729. The rally followed a better-than expected auction of Spanish and French government bonds, which raised hopes for a solution to the eurozone debt crisis.

Jobs data from the US was also ahead of expectations.

Predicting where the stock market will end in 2012 is not an exact science. The year is likely to record both crashes and rallies. David Schwartz, a financial historian who monitors the FTSE 100 and who believes historic patterns can suggest market moves, warned the situation in Europe was still volatile.

“It could go up by 1,000 points, it could go down by 1,000 points. The problem is Europe,” he said.
“In every single year I’ve always had a view of where the stock market will go.
“But this is the first time I am unable to come up with a forecast.
“The best outcome for the FTSE would be for European leaders to reach an agreement for the eurozone that was accepted and trusted by politicians, economists and the general public.
“Were this to happen, the FTSE will rise by 15 to 20 per cent during the course of the year. There is a potential for a tremendous rally in the year ahead if European leaders finally do the right thing.”

January’s gains come in spite of poor growth figures expected this week for the UK, with many economists believing we are already in recession – though even in difficult times some sectors flourish.

Analysis by Coutts, the private bank, found the technology sector has risen an average 7.9 per cent in every downturn since 1973. Other sectors that perform well are “defensive” sectors, healthcare, up 3.9 per cent, and consumer staples, such as beverages, food and tobacco firms, up by 3.4 per cent.

[guitarjosh]

He might be right, although typically the 4th year of a bull market is a good one, as is a reelection year.

[rkelly110]

http://contraryinvesting.com/uncategorized/a-look-at-the-third-year-of-the-presidential-cycle-and-the-stock-market/

An article to support your claim, jw.

I can't seem to find any articles to back up my claim. I know I read it a while back when I was trading commodities. I've used that to put my 401k out of harms way and it worked during both of Bush's terms and when the market was dumping towards the end of last year.

Since 'bama's market did good for 3 years, I'm expecting a big drop, which will hurt his chances of a 2nd term. IMO.

I will use my intuition instead of the talking heads and trends.

[bobby heenan]

so what should i do with my 401k guys?

[NYSportsGuy210]

Invest your 401k...... the whole thing in either CNQR or GE.

[jstblaze]

If you can allocate a bigger percentage of your 401 to fixd income then do it if you agree that there will be a significant downturn.

[excel]

Bought 43 bushels of corn yesterday because of this thread/fishhead.

[Waterstpub87]

Invest your 401k...... the whole thing in either CNQR or GE.

Yea, don't bother diversifying

[jmitseff]

[Sledge187]

Butt sex could get ugly if she just ate.

[gauchojake]

Tech and REITS BUY BUY BUY

[xelemental]

if your young, keep your 401k the way it is if its pretty aggressive. you want to have several bear markets during your young years so your investing the shares at a lower cost.

[muldoon]

I know this dude is old, but his variables are proven through time, be careful this year

also when you see some of the squares on this site becoming bullish it is time to run

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/

Proven over time?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gambling-vs-investing-in-stocks?dist=morenews&param=archive&siteid=mktw&garden=&minisite=

One way to find out is to gauge your reactions to a newsletter such as the Granville Market Letter, edited by the famous (or should I say infamous?) Joe Granville. This letter is at the bottom of the Hulbert Financial Digest's rankings for performance over the past 25 years - having produced average losses of more than 20 percent per year on an annualized basis.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Yea, don't bother diversifying

I didn't diversify putting all my money with Apple Inc. and it did me quite nicely.

[wtf]

Proven over time?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gambling-vs-investing-in-stocks?dist=morenews&param=archive&siteid=mktw&garden=&minisite=

One way to find out is to gauge your reactions to a newsletter such as the Granville Market Letter, edited by the famous (or should I say infamous?) Joe Granville. This letter is at the bottom of the Hulbert Financial Digest's rankings for performance over the past 25 years - having produced average losses of more than 20 percent per year on an annualized basis.

dont know if you listened to the interview he said the three variables he tracked have crossed into showing a huge bear market is imminent

and these variables were reliable in the past , maybe he is only good at knowing when to sell , not to buy

[gregm]

Or you can go the other way ... and be waiting for the imminent rally.

;0)

You can prove anything with statistics.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/297370

... financial experts believe the stock market could be set for a bumper 12 months as historically rallies in January are a good indicator of what happens to the market during the rest of the year.

If European leaders can finally settle the eurozone crisis the FTSE 100 could soar by as much as 20 per cent, according to some commentators.
Last week’s rise – the best weekly performance since 1989 – could be the start of a rally which could help repair the damage done to retirement schemes during a year of turmoil in 2011. Stuart Grennan, of Gallagher Employee Benefits, said: “At last some good news for pension savers which
will give a much-needed boost to those approaching retirement, looking to maximise their pension income.”

Rupert Robinson, at Schroders Private Banking, added: “Investors look to a new year as a new beginning, so January reflects the underlying confidence and fear for the year. If markets like the outlook, January shows this.”

Since 1945, there have been 45 years out of 67 when the market went up in January. Shares rose 37 times in the next 11 months.
Those who follow the “January indicator”, which looks at market performance on the first and fifth day of each year, also expect gains over the next 11 months.

In nine out of the past 11 years, a market rise on the first day of trading signalled a positive year overall. In seven of 11, a positive return on the first and the fifth trading day also indicated positive annual results.

The FTSE 100 was up 2.23 per cent on January 3 – the first trading day of the year – and another 0.72 per cent over five days. It rose to 5741 last Thursday, its highest level since August, before ending the week at 5729. The rally followed a better-than expected auction of Spanish and French government bonds, which raised hopes for a solution to the eurozone debt crisis.

Jobs data from the US was also ahead of expectations.

Predicting where the stock market will end in 2012 is not an exact science. The year is likely to record both crashes and rallies. David Schwartz, a financial historian who monitors the FTSE 100 and who believes historic patterns can suggest market moves, warned the situation in Europe was still volatile.

“It could go up by 1,000 points, it could go down by 1,000 points. The problem is Europe,” he said.
“In every single year I’ve always had a view of where the stock market will go.
“But this is the first time I am unable to come up with a forecast.
“The best outcome for the FTSE would be for European leaders to reach an agreement for the eurozone that was accepted and trusted by politicians, economists and the general public.
“Were this to happen, the FTSE will rise by 15 to 20 per cent during the course of the year. There is a potential for a tremendous rally in the year ahead if European leaders finally do the right thing.”

January’s gains come in spite of poor growth figures expected this week for the UK, with many economists believing we are already in recession – though even in difficult times some sectors flourish.

Analysis by Coutts, the private bank, found the technology sector has risen an average 7.9 per cent in every downturn since 1973. Other sectors that perform well are “defensive” sectors, healthcare, up 3.9 per cent, and consumer staples, such as beverages, food and tobacco firms, up by 3.4 per cent.

Thanks for posting this, good stuff.

[MagicMaker]

Apple just blew out earnings today. Market gonna be good for another week at least. Some bullshit Europe problem will show up and drag it down eventually.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Apple just blew out earnings today. Market gonna be good for another week at least. Some bullshit Europe problem will show up and drag it down eventually.

Apple aint part of the DOW cheif....

[NYSportsGuy210]

I gonna wait an hour or so today and sell out of Apple Inc.

No need in getting too greedy. Last few months $60 a share rise is good enough for me.