which loss is worse

**onlooker** · 05-11-06, 10:12 PM

Tonight. The Nats/Reds game. What a meltdown the Nats had. Makes it worse that I was on the Nats, and didnt figure to see a 4 run bottom of the 11th.

**bigboydan** · 05-11-06, 10:14 PM

i don't know about that one looker.

the nats loss extremely bad, but thats unheard of to lose a game like that in pucks.

**BigDaddy** · 05-11-06, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

i don't know about that one looker.

the nats loss extremely bad, but thats unheard of to lose a game like that in pucks.

i too was on nats but the hockey game was a much worse beat the odds of them scoring a goal after a goal with 18 secs has to be very high the odds of cincy scoring 4 in an inning not so high

why couldnt the game just end 1-0 i could live with that cant ask for more with a juicy dog to lose 1-0 but now i am steaming from this beat

**onlooker** · 05-11-06, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by BigDaddy

why couldnt the game just end 1-0 i could live with that cant ask for more with a juicy dog to lose 1-0 but now i am steaming from this beat

I agree. Not nice to tease us with a winner and give it right back to the Reds. 1-0 would of felt much better.

**BigDog** · 05-11-06, 10:26 PM

How about the mets/phillies game tonight? I didn't bet on it but if I had bet on the mets and the game got called in the 5th with Philly up 2-0 I wouldve been pissed!

**BigDaddy** · 05-11-06, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by BigDog

How about the mets/phillies game tonight? I didn't bet on it but if I had bet on the mets and the game got called in the 5th with Philly up 2-0 I wouldve been pissed!

That happens all the time and heres some stats that show from 2000 that it probally was a loser anyways

this is a good article if not allowed to post just delete i dont know how to put link in so i just copied and pasted it

May 9, 2006
by Michael Murray

April 24: Brad Lidge enters the Houston/Los Angeles game to close out a 2-1 Astros lead. A triple, two walks, and a grand slam later, he leaves the game with Houston losing 5-2. The Dodgers tack on another run, and a game that saw Andy Pettitte take a no-hitter into the 7th ended up a 6-2 Astros loss.

April 24: Matt Herges, taking over for Jason Vargas after Vargas allowed only one hit through seven innings, gives up a double and a walk to the Cubs with Florida leading 3-0 in the 8th inning. He is replaced by Josh Johnson, who walks the bases loaded, gives up a run on a fielder's choice, two runs on a single to center field, and a three run homer to Jacque Jones. Cubs 6, Florida 3.

April 22: San Francisco takes a three run lead into the bottom of the ninth at Colorado, with Todd Worrell on to save the game. He gives up a home run and three singles before Felipe Alou wakes up in time to yank the closer. Too late. Armando Benitez allows a sacrifice fly and two more singles to give the Rockies a 9-8 win over the Giants.

Nothing is more frustrating than a late inning lead being blown by a shaky bullpen. It isn't a common occurrence, but wasted games can damage more than just a bettor's bankroll. The psychological aspects of losing a game that was thought to have been in the bag can carry over far beyond just that night's games.

One way to combat this is the use of 5th inning bets. 5th inning bets are simply wagers one which team will be leading after five innings. Like the run line, prop bets like this were at one time relatively useless: the vigorish charged was too expensive to make these bets profitable over the long term.

Pinnacle has changed the equation, however. Just as run lines can now be used as effectively as money line wagers, so can 5th inning wagers. Pinnacle uses a dime line in both 5th inning side bets and totals. The April 25 game between Atlanta/Milwaukee provides a good example detailing the potential profits of 5th inning bets:

TEAM

5TH INNING

GAME LINE

ATLANTA

-1.19

-1.17

MILWAUKEE

+1.09

+1.09

An Atlanta bettor would pay just two extra cents by making a fifth inning wager vs. the entire game. Considering how unreliable the Braves bullpen can be, many bettors will find it comforting to bet the 5th inning rather than the entire game. Some, me included, prefer to make half my bet for the 5th and half for the game. The blown saves, painful still, are a bit easier to take.

At least that is the perception. The question still remains; how often will these bets actually cut a bettor's losses? Using five years worth of data and ignoring 5th inning ties, we can determine how such a strategy works:

TOTAL

5TH INN WIN

GAME

ROAD

46.5%

46.2%

HOME

53.5%

53.8%

The table above uses data from the 2000 season through the 2004. A bettor splitting his wagers on the fifth inning and the complete game would show a slight improvement. That improvement, however, is unlikely to result in higher profits. The ability to shop for the best lines is virtually nil in fifth inning bets; only Pinnacle offers the dime line (5Dimes does offer a 15-cent line that often has value). This lack of line variety means you are stuck with whatever line is dealt, unlike complete game wagers.

The data can be broken down a bit further:

ROAD WINS BOTH

37.2%

ROAD WINS 5TH, HOME WINS GAME

9.3%

HOME WINS BOTH

44.8%

HOME WINS 5TH, ROAD WINS GAME

8.7%

About 18% of all games will see a team losing after five innings come back to win the game. One piece of conventional wisdom in baseball is that home teams are more likely to stage comebacks due to crowd support and momentum; this shows this isn't correct. Road teams will blow a few more games than home teams, but the difference isn't substantial (about 60 games over the five years).

So what teams are most likely to lose 5th inning leads? Common sense would say teams with a poor bullpen. This was the case in 2004:

TEAM

BLOWN LEADS

BULLPEN ERA

BULLPEN RATING

DETROIT

-12

4.80

26

COLORADO

-11

5.53

30

BALTIMORE

-6

4.13

18

KANSAS CITY

-6

4.54

23

MILWAUKEE

-5

4.35

20

One has to be careful with these numbers, however. Only one of the above teams won more than 68 games in 2004. When you lose 90+ games in a season, chances are you will have blown a lot of leads late in the game. The fact that the Royals only lost six leads in a season where they dropped 104 games is startling, and shows how truly awful Kansas City was in 2004. That said, the next time you look at betting the juicy money lines that are permanently attached to Kansas City, consider the 5th inning wagers. The price should be just as nice, and you won't have to watch Luke Hudson control your fate.

**onlooker** · 05-11-06, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by BigDog

How about the mets/phillies game tonight? I didn't bet on it but if I had bet on the mets and the game got called in the 5th with Philly up 2-0 I wouldve been pissed!

Well I was on the Jays/White Sox game a few weeks ago that got called due to rain, but was a official game. Jays were rallying back in that game, and didnt get a chance to battle back more. It ended in the bottom of the 5th with the Sox up 6-4. I was on the Jays.

**BigDaddy** · 05-11-06, 10:34 PM

HOME WINS 5TH, ROAD WINS GAME

8.7%

thats the stat i was refering to

**BigDog** · 05-11-06, 10:36 PM

Damn nice stats Big Daddy!

Tough break on that Jays game a few weeks ago onlooker.....that has to be a bad feeling to lose that way.Luckily,I haven't experienced this yet

**BigDaddy** · 05-11-06, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by BigDog

Damn nice stats Big Daddy!

Tough break on that Jays game a few weeks ago onlooker.....that has to be a bad feeling to lose that way.Luckily,I haven't experienced this yet

thats an article written by michael murray those are his stats but i just found them today and they are interesting

**imgv94** · 05-12-06, 12:08 AM

Devils one by FAR!!!

**Razz** · 05-12-06, 12:09 AM

Jeez, I was on two of the losing sides of games mentioned in this thread.

**BigDog** · 05-12-06, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by Razz

Jeez, I was on two of the losing sides of games mentioned in this thread.

Ouuucccchhhhh

**bigboydan** · 05-12-06, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by Razz

Jeez, I was on two of the losing sides of games mentioned in this thread.

thats really rough razz

**rolemand** · 05-12-06, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by BigDog

How about the mets/phillies game tonight? I didn't bet on it but if I had bet on the mets and the game got called in the 5th with Philly up 2-0 I wouldve been pissed!

Those wagers were cancelled as the game didn't complete 5 innings.

**joe blow** · 05-12-06, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by BigDog

How about the mets/phillies game tonight? I didn't bet on it but if I had bet on the mets and the game got called in the 5th with Philly up 2-0 I wouldve been pissed!

This was a very bad beat ,i watched the game and had the mets.With the bases loaded in the 1st inning the centerfielder ofr the phillies made the best over the head catch in the last 25 years and broke his nose doing it.
I didn't bet those other games,,,,so the met game was the worse bad beat of the night

**BigDog** · 05-12-06, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by rolemand

Those wagers were cancelled as the game didn't complete 5 innings.

Wrong,if you had the mets in this game you lost,if you had the phillies you won.....This would be a tough way to lose!

Winners and Losers are official after 5 innings of play unless the home team is leading after 4 ½ innings. If a game is called or suspended, the score after the last full inning determines the winner. If the home team scores to tie - or takes the lead in the bottom half of the inning— the score at the time the game is called determines the winner. Monies will be refunded if the home team ties the game and it is then suspended.