Why not slam Niners +1225 to win SB, then hedge by betting against every opponent?

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  • warriorfan707
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-29-08
    • 13698

    #36
    Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
    Odds on Betfair to win the Superbowl are currently 17.00 (+1600).

    Without having gone through the various permutations, that looks much more realistic to me than the heavily juiced 5Dimes offer.
    Has that changed recently? Friend told me yesterday that it was +1300

    And do they take a 5% cut if you win?
    Comment
    • YouMama
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 01-04-12
      • 727

      #37
      Odds on the Texans were +2500 the last wk of the regular season ... I gave them just as much of a chance as the niners ... double the payout
      Comment
      • FourLengthsClear
        SBR MVP
        • 12-29-10
        • 3808

        #38
        Originally posted by warriorfan707
        Has that changed recently? Friend told me yesterday that it was +1300

        And do they take a 5% cut if you win?
        Only slightly, was +1500 to +1550 prior to the Saints/Lions game.
        Yes, if you are a new customer there would be a 5% commission on net winnings.
        Comment
        • warriorfan707
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-29-08
          • 13698

          #39
          Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
          Only slightly, was +1500 to +1550 prior to the Saints/Lions game.
          Yes, if you are a new customer there would be a 5% commission on net winnings.
          Weird, my friend told me he got the Niners yesterday to win the SB at +1300 on betfair
          Comment
          • bachngocduong
            SBR MVP
            • 03-17-06
            • 1826

            #40
            Originally posted by FindTheLock
            +1225x500=6125 this is what we are going to subtract from
            lol
            100 to win 1225
            1225 x5 =6125
            Comment
            • k13
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-16-10
              • 18104

              #41
              Why did you not get it at the start of the season?

              Then you would have some hope and value with hedging.
              Comment
              • moses millsap
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-25-05
                • 8289

                #42
                If you run an accumulator with the 49ers, you will over 25 to 1 to win the Super Bowl if they end up playing Packers and either Pats or Ravens.

                1 unit on them to beat Saints will return 2.8 (already +180 now, so you can get that now). Then put the 2.8 against the Pack where they will be +330ish, leaving you with 12.04 to bet with. They will be underdog depending on who they play in SB, so at worst you'll get around 25 to 1, more likely over 30 to 1 if they play the Pats.
                Comment
                • FindTheLock
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-27-10
                  • 7194

                  #43
                  Originally posted by bachngocduong
                  lol
                  100 to win 1225
                  1225 x5 =6125
                  His base bet was 500 not 100 so I shortened the process because

                  +1225 is the same as saying 12.25 for multiplication purposes.
                  Comment
                  • skjjb4
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-19-09
                    • 624

                    #44
                    Originally posted by peeiempee
                    There should be a loop hole scenerio or x-factor you didn't take into account here. Vegas does not give away free money.
                    So true
                    Comment
                    • warriorfan707
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 03-29-08
                      • 13698

                      #45
                      What do you guys think the ML will be for Packers/Niners?
                      Comment
                      • FourLengthsClear
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-29-10
                        • 3808

                        #46
                        Originally posted by warriorfan707
                        what do you guys think the ml will be for packers/niners?
                        -350
                        +320
                        Comment
                        • rockaflocka
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 08-07-10
                          • 482

                          #47
                          You cant buy a future with the anticipation of hedging every opportunity, you will break even at best
                          Comment
                          • warriorfan707
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 03-29-08
                            • 13698

                            #48
                            Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                            -350
                            +320
                            I was thinking Packers -335
                            Comment
                            • warriorfan707
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 03-29-08
                              • 13698

                              #49
                              so 1k to win 500 on Saints

                              Niners win you gotta win 1500 on Gb to break even

                              Yep clearly this wont work unless you bypass the first game
                              Comment
                              • FourLengthsClear
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-29-10
                                • 3808

                                #50
                                Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                                Odds on Betfair to win the Superbowl are currently 17.00 (+1600).

                                Without having gone through the various permutations, that looks much more realistic to me than the heavily juiced 5Dimes offer.
                                Hope you made this play dude.

                                Comment
                                • isotopes
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 12-04-08
                                  • 654

                                  #51
                                  Biggest problem you have is that you assumed the packers were going to beat the giants
                                  Comment
                                  • paco
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 05-07-09
                                    • 62873

                                    #52
                                    FLC, how old are u? And do u have a degree in math or finance? U seem like the best dude when it comes to numbers on this site hands down.
                                    Comment
                                    • FourLengthsClear
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-29-10
                                      • 3808

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by paco
                                      FLC, how old are u? And do u have a degree in math or finance? U seem like the best dude when it comes to numbers on this site hands down.
                                      I am 40, Paco.

                                      My major was actually in physics (aerodynamics) although there is obviously a big crossover with maths.
                                      Comment
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