Just wait and see if a non public side steams then bet it at bodog or sia = long term winning lol
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Allure,
I agree with you 100%. Lets just come back to this post after the game. I want to see what everyone is saying after the 49ers win by atleast 7 points. I watched the Redskins play the Bills and they looked HORRIBLE! I know the line looks fishy at 3.5 but playing fundamental football, the 49ers destroy the Redskins. Simple as that...Comment -
Talking about last week is the first bad step.Comment -
The OP presented an angle. That the line moved from 4.5 to 3.5 despite most of the tickets being placed on SF. This would suggest that large bets are being placed on Wash and that is why the line is moving in the reverse direction one would intuitively believe it to move. The theory being that large money is sharp money (whale money will come on both sides and cancel out).there is not a single angle that favors Washington
This line movement is an (1) angle. So there is at least "a single angle that favors Washington". And why you are a noob.Comment -
3.5 is 9.5 at home
So it always looks low to people when actually it is rather spot on.Comment -
Wouldn't the smart play on this game be the under? If pressed, I'd definitely be taking the Niners -3.5, but the under is the smarter play.Comment -
lol...and you have nothing of substance to retort with
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I find it kind of comical that the people who like Washington +3.5 have little football data to back up this claim. The only talk from the Skin Supporters has been about the line. All other arguments are based on the Niners NOT performing: b/c the West-to-East coast early game, a let down by the Niners, etc. What aspect of this game, besides it being in Washington, favors the Skins?
The Niners supporters can obviously be wrong, but intuitively, why in the world is Washington +3.5 a good bet? I don't see it.Comment -
I am not on the Niners or the Skins, but I can say this... people trying to handicap games are going to be long term losers. there are people following trends, basic stats analysis, some football data, guys who know ever player on the roster...all these people are going to get crushed because they can not outcap the bookies to the point where they can overcome the juice (-110 for most of ya). it's just not happening.Comment -
k13 knows that SF is going to win and cover but being a fan is a little reluctant to say so. SF will cover.Comment -
Washington is the play.
-Reverse line movement indicating lots of sharp money on Washington.
-"80/20 NFL Home Underdog Rule", NFL home underdogs receiving 20% or fewer of spread bets at kickoff are 9-2=81.2% in 2011, and 98-72 = 57.6% since 2003.
-I like the fact there are still lots of +3.5 on the board, 5Dimes, SIA, Jazz, Sportsbooks.com, SIA, SBG, BetUs.
For those interested, I broke down this game and a couple of other with Chad Millman of ESPN. The analysis will appear today in his NFL blog post.
Dan F
President
SportsInsightsComment -
I really like SF now.Comment -
What do you guys think the line should be against the Giants next week?? @SFComment -
I say 49ers myself but how long can they ride the wave?Comment -
was 90% when I posted this thread
Down to 88% now according the numbers im getting
Funny thing is the game has the most bets on it of all the NFL games.. Over 12,000 bets for this game and 80% range on 49ers yet line dropped. The sharps know something we don't cause the pounded the fukk out of skinsComment -
best play by far...think you should have got on it before it fell under 38 tho (believe you can still get 38 at bodog) ..not that i think under 37.5 or 37 wont cash but feel like 38 is really the absolute high mark in this game...
if skins win/cover it damn sure going under cause it will have to be low scoring as all hell, the alternate under prob has a shot if skins cover, look at the points skins have put up the last 5 weeks against defenses not as stout as this one...it gonna take Alex Smith really fukkin up or sf putting the ball on the ground several times for skins to get offense... tend to believe that shit aint happening and sf takes this something like 17-10 but again under seemed like the best play to me as well....
If i was so inclined to try and be as "sharp" as this group id be looking to play indy well before id be trying to fade sf right now...Comment -
k13 is actually a good poster, however he always posts the opposite of what he is actually playing.
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K13 was pumping up Browns side last week. believe it his way of not jinxing his team or some shit???Comment -
fair enough. and being newer to the game, i am not at luxury to fully understand the depth books entail. but regardless of how a line moves or what the sharps are doing, there needs to be some logic applied. i dont understand how people can feel confident in playing the Skins here - that's it. Putting down money on John Beck, Torain/Helu, Gaffney, etc and their #1 target being a TE (who has a bum ankle) doesn't seem logical.
that said, if I am wrong, I will be the first one to give people who actually played Washington credit b/c I would have 100000% completely whiffed on this game..Comment -
despite their lack of big names, the redskins have a lot of very highly skilled offensive players and although alex smith is more comfortable and successful this year- the redskins' defense is one of the best. they are playing against the 9ers offense, not their defense.
gaffney, davis, armstrong, banks, hankerson, torrain, helu
but the line is an important factor here in this game for sure.Comment -
Point spreads for the rest of the year as of right now...
-7 vs Giants
-10.5 vs Arizona
+6 @ Baltimore
-14 vs St Louis
-3.5 @ Arizona
-1.5 vs Steelers
-3 @ Seattle
-9.5 @ St Louis
I read a decent article how the Niners can't continue covering at the same pace as the 1st half even if they win every game because the lines obviously lost most value and got too inflated.
Even though the Redskins game is a potential trap the Line is correct if you think Wash is equal to Arizona....Comment
