Cardinals are +162 in game 3

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  • lakerboy
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 04-02-09
    • 94379

    #36
    Originally posted by BigDofBA
    It's not like Texas dominated either. Out of the 18 inning played this World Series, Texas has led for .5 of an inning. It took a bloop base hit and some sacrifice fly balls to finally do it.

    I don't see how anyone that has Texas in this series can feel really good about it. We'll see.

    If the Cards can just win one game in Texas, which I think they will, I think they have a decent shot at winning two at home. Pujols will step up.

    The reason i feel good about texas is exactly what you stated. they haven't lead for anytime hardly and still won 1 game. they will prob win one in texas but the rangers wont come to st louis up 3-2 and lose both games.

    anyways good luck to your cards bigdofba. you are a good guy and have class unlike so many guys here.
    Comment
    • paco
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 05-07-09
      • 62873

      #37
      Originally posted by lakerboy
      no. he doesnt bet bases pal and his clients are americans- not eligible at the greek glad i got +120 though
      U didnt hear? the 68% win rate made him international.
      Comment
      • lakerboy
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 04-02-09
        • 94379

        #38
        Originally posted by paco
        U didnt hear? the 68% win rate made him international.

        he prob thinks you can buy runs for rls. he has texas -.25 in game 3.
        Comment
        • t-wizzle
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-18-09
          • 38099

          #39
          Originally posted by paco
          U didnt hear? the 68% win rate made him international.
          Pac you know i called him out for a fake record? He claimed to go something like 20-4 or something and i called bullshit. I went back and showed all the posted plays and he just ignored me.

          Ask Dexter. He knows all about it.
          Comment
          • BigDofBA
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 09-30-09
            • 19313

            #40
            Originally posted by lakerboy
            The reason i feel good about texas is exactly what you stated. they haven't lead for anytime hardly and still won 1 game. they will prob win one in texas but the rangers wont come to st louis up 3-2 and lose both games.

            anyways good luck to your cards bigdofba. you are a good guy and have class unlike so many guys here.
            Ty.

            Before the series I said that I thought Texas would win. While I still think it's going to be tough for the Cards to win, I feel a little better about their chances.

            It's basically a best of 5 and the Cards have homefield.

            After watching Franklin blow so many saves earlier in the year, I'm thrilled to be in this position. The better team will win. If my Cardinals truly are champions, they should be able to overcome this. If not, I'll just give Texas props for being better. I won't make execuses.

            I have given a few people shit after the Cards made it to the World Series because I was tired of hearing how bad they sucked before the playoffs. My smack talk was in good fun though.

            This team doesn't suck. They finished about 20 games over .500 despite injuries and a ton of blown saves. Now they are healthy.

            I'm not mad at Motte either he gave up a bloopers and a hit. It happens. He got us here.
            Comment
            • hawley
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 05-10-10
              • 14270

              #41
              Originally posted by lakerboy


              he prob thinks you can buy runs for rls. he has texas -.25 in game 3.
              this is fukkn classic.
              Comment
              • chrisharvard01
                Restricted User
                • 10-24-08
                • 2943

                #42
                So majority says, lay the chalk with TEX gm 3?
                Comment
                • priskilla22
                  Restricted User
                  • 09-22-11
                  • 2289

                  #43
                  Why are people always so square towards the overs in baseball???

                  Everyone saw terrible offense in game 1 and saw the 8 posted for game 2 and scream over over over, but fail to consider the same weather for game 2 as game 1.

                  At least some better weather for game 3, but this game is still going under.
                  Comment
                  • dontbuythehook
                    Restricted User
                    • 09-23-11
                    • 837

                    #44
                    Originally posted by lakerboy

                    anyways good luck to your cards bigdofba. you are a good guy and have class unlike so many guys here.
                    Yeah guys. It's totally classy to post play after play throughout a two-week period, lose most of them, then when you win one you continue to post on as if nothing happened at all.

                    Comment
                    • Love The Action
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-08-10
                      • 10952

                      #45
                      Originally posted by lakerboy
                      You still banking on the cards to win the series ? I got texas rl +120 it is now +110 at the greek ( one of the sharper books). Im sure not too many joes are betting right now. I dont have the -1 option. No the books dont welcome my money thats why they are dropping the line. if they did welcome it they would leave the line the way it is or even better open up +130 or more.

                      Thanks pal
                      I never banked on the cards to win the series. I leaned to the cardinals, but did not take them or the rangers in a series wager. As I said in dexters thread, there was value in the cards price but the cards would need to sweep them at home to ensure the series returns to st.lou. They blew it last night, so this series will be tougher for the cards to win.

                      Based on your spreadsheet, I thought you play at pinny. Pinny absolutely has -1RL wagers. Regardless, you can make your own -1RL wager by splitting your stake between the ML and -1.5 RL. If the ML wager wins but the -1.5 RL loses, then you split and push.

                      For example, you take texas -170 for $100 and the -1.5 RL +120 for $100, and risk $270 to win $220. If texas wins by one run, you push instead of lose. In the regular season, 29% of all games end in a one run differential. I think that goes up beyond 33% in the playoffs. This makes the -1.5 RL unprofitable over enough wagers, especially in the playoffs.

                      In addition, the -1.5 RL market is very inefficient and it's easy to move the price. Therefore, you cant be sure that the drop in price from +120 to +110 is sharp money. That could have been from any joe schmoe texas fan getting on the rangers early.

                      If you beat the closing number, then it was a good bet, but I wouldn't judge it just yet because it could still move back up pretty easy with just one bet the other way.

                      You may want to contemplate throwing a unit or two on the ML to cover yiurself in this situation.

                      Personally, I am leaning -1 RL on the rangers myself, but have not capped the game or put it through my model yet so i cant say for sure. However, the DH really helps texas, so a game 3 wager on texas makes sense.

                      Good luck in whatever you choose
                      Comment
                      • stogies
                        Restricted User
                        • 02-24-11
                        • 641

                        #46
                        Originally posted by paco
                        Rangers ALL IN.
                        Evn though they have that fat fukk Napoli that you think is a chump and should not be able to hit home runs off MLB pitchers? how much is all in for you paco?

                        It is funny listening to the experts now who was talking about how this was going to be a World Series with a ton of scoring. Alot of people thought Garcia was going to get bombed last night. If Pujols did not make that error than maybe Texas only scores 1 run or may be none last night

                        I do not trust Jackson enough to bet Cards but Holland is not to hot right now either. May be the over is the best bet for game three.
                        Comment
                        • Adm. Cowpollock
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 10-05-11
                          • 159

                          #47
                          I got StL at +177 for Game 3 at 5d, but that's with Harrison and Lohse listed. Won't be surprised if LaRussa trots Jackson, not Lohse, out into the Texas night.
                          Comment
                          • DDT
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-22-09
                            • 3757

                            #48
                            Rangers take game 3...book it
                            Comment
                            • pavyracer
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 04-12-07
                              • 82839

                              #49
                              Wait for line movement lakerboy. You have been 0-10 on your last 10 bets where you beat the line movement.
                              Comment
                              • lakerboy
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 04-02-09
                                • 94379

                                #50
                                Originally posted by pavyracer
                                Wait for line movement lakerboy. You have been 0-10 on your last 10 bets where you beat the line movement.

                                you are truly a dummy. i made 3 bets on the rangers last night on the ml -107/-107/-109.

                                it closed at -113.
                                Comment
                                • deadstare
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-02-11
                                  • 661

                                  #51
                                  in on texas ML
                                  Comment
                                  • SportBettingSpot
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 09-29-11
                                    • 7

                                    #52
                                    Comment
                                    • dfberger23
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 11-08-10
                                      • 5069

                                      #53
                                      I am pretty surprised by this line. Probably going to be a no play for me.
                                      Comment
                                      • onetrickpony
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 08-23-10
                                        • 9434

                                        #54
                                        another toss up game

                                        lohse has only seen 3 guys from the rangers and owns them

                                        harrison has only seen berkman once

                                        and the cards are +162
                                        Comment
                                        • cadillac pete
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-15-06
                                          • 1675

                                          #55
                                          Your asking for trouble if you think Kyle Lohse is going to shut down the Texas offense in their own park.
                                          Comment
                                          • wyldbill
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 11-17-10
                                            • 61

                                            #56


                                            Sometimes the stupidest bets turn out to be the best ones...
                                            Comment
                                            • lakerboy
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 04-02-09
                                              • 94379

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by cadillac pete
                                              Your asking for trouble if you think Kyle Lohse is going to shut down the Texas offense in their own park.
                                              That's why I took tex rl +120. I think it cashes.
                                              Comment
                                              • lunchbawks
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-31-10
                                                • 12873

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by cadillac pete
                                                Your asking for trouble if you think Kyle Lohse is going to shut down the Texas offense in their own park.
                                                Rangers have done nothing offensively against starting pitchers lately.

                                                NOTHING

                                                My boy Lohse will get it done

                                                Cards FF +0.5 is the play
                                                Comment
                                                • JR007
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-21-10
                                                  • 5279

                                                  #59
                                                  Good luck with this play
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Avenger
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-15-11
                                                    • 2119

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by onetrickpony
                                                    another toss up game lohse has only seen 3 guys from the rangers and owns them harrison has only seen berkman once and the cards are +162


                                                    Yep, but I can't believe the value on the Cards.

                                                    I got the Rangers for the series at +110. I put a penny on it (which is a big bet for me).

                                                    I'm probably going to play Cards for the next 3 games for $20, especially if the line is as outrageous as tomorrow's game. I doubt Rangers win next 3 in a row.

                                                    Guaranteed Money!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Avenger
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-15-11
                                                      • 2119

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by lunchbawks
                                                      Rangers have done nothing offensively against starting pitchers lately. NOTHING My boy Lohse will get it done Cards FF +0.5 is the play
                                                      The better question is, what kind of pitcher is Lohse? I should look it up, but I'm too lazy, and I'm playing my guaranteed $ angle.

                                                      If Lohse is a fly-ball pitcher, that's bad news. Harrison sucks, but he's a good ground ball pitcher. That's important for the next three games.

                                                      Actually, if anyone does a detail writeup, with stats for all the Card's pitcher and the bullpen, I'll give them 2 pts. But looking at the lines, I'm guessing bookmakers already know this and are expecting Rangers to roll and win at least 2 of the next 3 games.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ParlayJunkie
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 08-06-10
                                                        • 689

                                                        #62
                                                        Rangers RL for me.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • DigBick86
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-06-10
                                                          • 1930

                                                          #63
                                                          Im pretty sure texas wins but RL in the postseason and hometeam is tooo scary took -1 at pinny -130.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • anthonyc023
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-25-09
                                                            • 2733

                                                            #64
                                                            craig baby here we go
                                                            Comment
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