What does this bet mean to you??

VegasInsider · 10-19-11, 10:27 AM

If Holliday, Hamilton and Berkman combine for OVER 5.5 hits in Game 1 of the World Series (whether starting or not) then you're a +700 winner.

boneheaded1 · 10-19-11, 10:30 AM

Yeah that's what it implies. But that's certainly not how it reads. That's why I only bet $10 on it. Figured if it is as it reads, it's a free $70. If not, then I'm only out $10 (with a chance of hitting it).

VegasInsider · 10-19-11, 10:55 AM

It's def. for Game 1..

"Any cancellation of the game all bets have action."

boneheaded1 · 10-19-11, 01:06 PM

I need to learn to read better. Not used to prop bets and NEVER bet baseball.

Regul8er · 10-19-11, 01:08 PM

WOW...certainly worth a shot.
Hopefully one these guys can pop out 3 hits alone.

milwaukee mike · 10-19-11, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

WOW...certainly worth a shot.
Hopefully one these guys can pop out 3 hits alone.

do you guys just make bets like this willy nilly? USE MATH people!!

here is a binomial calculator, assuming those guys are all .300 hitters and the total #of at bats (not including walks/hit by pitch) is expected to be 12 (see below how this is inflated), then the odds are 11.78% of getting 6 hits or more. that would be +750 true odds.
but especially with postseason play/double switches/etc cleanup hitters get an average of 3.7 at bats/game i would put an expectation around 11 at bats so the chances are .0782% and true odds should be +1200.

so to take +700 is ridiculous, especially since these guys aren't .300 hitters against carpenter and wilson.

Binomial Calculator

http://onlinestatbook.com/calculators/binomialProb.html

stikymess · 10-19-11, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by boneheaded1

I need to learn to read better. Not used to prop bets and NEVER bet baseball.

Bone these are your main problems, why start now? Stick to what you know and what you win at!

As for the reading comprehension, come on man pick up a book every now and then.

Good luck tonight.

Regul8er · 10-19-11, 03:26 PM

I wasnt planning on playing this bet, or didnt take the time to use a binomial calculator.
I didnt realize the percentage of hitting was that low.

milwaukee mike · 10-19-11, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

I wasnt planning on playing this bet, or didnt take the time to use a binomial calculator.
I didnt realize the percentage of hitting was that low.

hey no problem, most of these props are overvalued based on the number of times they would cash. and i was being conservative, there's quite a good chance one of those guys only gets a couple of at bats in which case the odds of cashing would go down to almost zero.

milwaukee mike · 10-19-11, 03:32 PM

and just to be clear, could the bet cash? of course. but i would much rather be on the -700 side of that action every time.

boneheaded1 · 10-19-11, 03:35 PM

I agree. They suckered me in with the unclear betting title. I got retarded thinking it was for the whole series (I was like HELL YEAH) but I only bet $10 because I just figured I HAD to be reading it wrong (which was the case). Had I not misread it, I never make this bet.

Regul8er · 10-19-11, 03:59 PM

Thanks Milwaukee Mike.......I never play prop bets for exactly that reason. I very very rarely do parlays or teasers...generally just straight wagers for me.

MichaelWaters · 10-19-11, 04:01 PM

none of them get walked and all total they bat 6-12 (.500)

boneheaded1 · 10-19-11, 05:51 PM

Or better yet the game goes 15 innings and they all go 2-5.

Yeah, stupid bet. Learned my lesson here. Read the small print!!!!

But hey, it ain't a loser yet. Wasn't going to watch the game but will now.