Regulation or OT Included??? What Is Better In Hockey??

**flyingillini** · 10-11-11, 11:12 PM

I always take OT included.... Baruch HaShem

**lakerboy** · 10-11-11, 11:12 PM

ot included

**King Mayan** · 10-11-11, 11:12 PM

Take OT, and save your ass!

**4getaboutit** · 10-11-11, 11:14 PM

Who bets a tie? How do u cap that?

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-11, 11:18 PM

Always take OT, guy.

If u dont know that, bet other sports.

Learn hockey betting then come back later, son.

**OTL** · 10-11-11, 11:32 PM

OT included. Too many pushes if you bet regulation only.

**will2survive** · 10-12-11, 06:38 AM

keep it basic. I like regulation. I also hate shootouts.

**sweethook** · 10-12-11, 06:58 AM

ot , ml

**rfr3sh** · 10-12-11, 07:00 AM

Ot included, regulation is a sucker bet, guy goes no way Washington loses tonight but -280 is too much juice, so he takes them like -150 regulation and loses cuz they win in OT

**Inkwell77** · 10-12-11, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by rfr3sh

Ot included, regulation is a sucker bet, guy goes no way Washington loses tonight but -280 is too much juice, so he takes them like -150 regulation and loses cuz they win in OT

Depends on the situation. If you are betting on a team who is statistically weak in shootouts and or 4 on 4 play more value in taking that team to win in regulation.

**jjgold** · 10-12-11, 07:16 AM

Ok thanks men

**rfr3sh** · 10-12-11, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by Inkwell77

Depends on the situation. If you are betting on a team who is statistically weak in shootouts and or 4 on 4 play more value in taking that team to win in regulation.

Do you know the shoot out lineup before the game ? if they are doing bad in shootouts (tiny irrelevant sample size anyways) , dont you think the coach will change the shooters ? So then the stats wont matter anyways

**ebbearsfb1** · 10-12-11, 07:37 AM

What percent of games go to ot? It seems like every game I bet does

**Glitch** · 10-12-11, 07:39 AM

regulation seems more wise and less greedy.

you can lose in reg and then ot included loses too.
you can push in reg and then ot included can still win.

**xraygord** · 10-12-11, 07:58 AM

When picking a fav to win, I will take OT included for sure. But if taking the underdog, then in Regulation at +.5 is the bet.

**lolguy999** · 10-12-11, 08:50 AM

LOL if i can get a 130cents cut from washington -280 to -150 because i believe they have a strong chance of winning i will, Regulations bets are a steal in my opinion and shouldn't be overlooked by ppl who actually speculate hockey rather than just blind tailing trying to make a profit

**watertight** · 10-12-11, 09:29 AM

What xraygord said. Just stay away from -1.5 it will have you in the red fast.

**floridagolfer** · 10-12-11, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

What percent of games go to ot? It seems like every game I bet does

Historically, roughly 25 percent of games go to OT.

**DennisGreen** · 10-12-11, 09:34 AM

-130 or less I take ML. Anything higher I take regulation. You should never be playing anything over -175 in hockey. Come on mannnn!

Ex : COL vs BOS. BOS was -230 ML and lost. I was on them in regulation at -130. You save a lot of chalk long term betting regulation.

You'll lose the occasional regulation bet
and the pricks will win in OT from time to time but over the full year regulation is the way to go on large faves.

**Inkwell77** · 10-12-11, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by rfr3sh

Do you know the shoot out lineup before the game ? if they are doing bad in shootouts (tiny irrelevant sample size anyways) , dont you think the coach will change the shooters ? So then the stats wont matter anyways

You know the goalies before the game so you can look into those stats. And if you are betting against a team with strong shootout scorers who have a consistent shootout lineup it is likely that the team you are betting on possibly "changing the shooters" is probably going to lose the shootout more often then they win. Taking a quality penalty shot is a unique skill, and the goalies save more penalty shots than they don't so if you have a player or a couple of players that score at a high percentage that is a huge advantage.

**OnTheRise23** · 10-12-11, 09:48 AM

i like to bet regulation if i wanna play a huge favorite but dont want to lay huge juice. and im convienced they should win big.

**yisman** · 10-12-11, 09:50 AM

regulation

Originally posted by Inkwell77

You know the goalies before the game so you can look into those stats. And if you are betting against a team with strong shootout scorers who have a consistent shootout lineup it is likely that the team you are betting on possibly "changing the shooters" is probably going to lose the shootout more often then they win. Taking a quality penalty shot is a unique skill, and the goalies save more penalty shots than they don't so if you have a player or a couple of players that score at a high percentage that is a huge advantage.

Few are consistently good at shootouts. Shootouts are pretty damn random.

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CRITICS OF THE NHL SHOOTOUT say it lets a narrow set of skills decide hockey games. It's as if the NBA used a free throw competition to choose winners. But that view is wrong. Skill, in fact, has nothing to do with the NHL's system of breaking overtime ties, according to a new study. That means shootout critics are even more right than they realize. Allow me to explain.

Statistician Michael Schuckers analyzed all 5,711 NHL shootout shots from the tiebreaker's debut in 2005-06 through last season. Of 571 different shooters, not one converted at a significantly higher rate than the NHL average. Meanwhile, only one of 112 goalies outperformed the league save average: the not-exactly-immortal Marc Denis, who is now retired. Just 10 shooters were significantly worse than average, roughly what you'd expect if the results of shootouts were driven purely by chance. "Based on this analysis," Schuckers told me, "I conclude that the NHL shootout is a crapshoot."

Why would a few shooters rate as below-average while none is above-average? Imagine you and I are teammates in a coin-flipping contest, and we share the delusional belief that we have the skill to cause the coin to land on heads. Now, if I throw tails a few times in a row, our coach will probably bench me quickly. But if you toss a few heads, you'll stay in the lineup. Of course, over time, you won't be able to do much better than 50-50, because coin flips, like shootouts, are random. So in the long run, I'll end up below-average, you'll be average, and nobody will rate above-average. That's precisely the pattern that Schuckers found NHL shootout percentages take: Marian Gaborik was at 11.1 percent (2-for-18), Alex Ovechkin was at 27.7 percent (13-for-47), the league was at 32.9 percent, and nobody was at 60 percent. Clearly, teams believe some players are better than others, but the numbers don't back them up.

This revelation comes at a time when ties are increasingly common in the NHL, which makes shootouts increasingly important. There are several reasons for this trend. Thanks to a 1999 rule change, the NHL counts OT wins the same as regulation wins -- two points each. But it gives OT losers one point, as opposed to zero points for a regulation loss. That bonus point gives teams an incentive to play to reach OT rather than fight for wins at the risk of suffering a loss. Another factor: Parity is on the rise. Since the 2004-05 lockout, the league has had a salary floor, as well as a cap. According to Forbes, 26 of 30 clubs had payrolls between $46 million and $60 million last season. That relatively narrow band results in lots of teams having similar talent levels, which in turn results in ties. In 2009-10, the number of OT games hit a postlockout high of 301; the number of shootouts soared to an all-time record of 184. And, of course, the final Eastern Conference playoff spot last year was determined by a shootout between the Flyers and the Rangers.

Big deal, you say? Well, if we don't know with confidence from their stats that Sidney Crosby or Roberto Luongo is better or worse on shootouts than Ilya Kovalchuk or Ryan Miller -- and we don't -- then this flood of shootouts is merely introducing more randomness into the season. And the more randomness, the less meaningful the games become. In fact, for the average NHL team, more than a dozen games a year are essentially decided by a roll of dice.

The league itself must feel that's reaching the limits of acceptability. Starting this season, if two teams are tied at the end of the regular season and a playoff spot is on the line, only regulation and OT wins, not shootout victories, will count in breaking the tie. That's a start. But ultimately, there's only one way to fully curb the impact of the shootout's randomness: Kill it altogether.

**Inkwell77** · 10-12-11, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by yisman

regulation

Few are consistently good at shootouts. Shootouts are pretty damn random.

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Thanks! I guess I was a bit off with my conclusion, but at the same time, you look at Pittsburgh last year, with Fleury in net they were 9-2 in shootouts. You can say irrelevant sample size and it's just one team, but I would claim these little stats are can help you make a little extra.

**k13** · 10-12-11, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by Inkwell77

Thanks! I guess I was a bit off with my conclusion, but at the same time, you look at Pittsburgh last year, with Fleury in net they were 9-2 in shootouts. You can say irrelevant sample size and it's just one team, but I would claim these little stats are can help you make a little extra.

Fleury is sick in shootouts. Probably one of the best in the league.

Watch him in practice when they do the shootout drill/game.

**rfr3sh** · 10-12-11, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by Glitch

regulation seems more wise and less greedy.

you can lose in reg and then ot included loses too.
you can push in reg and then ot included can still win.

I think regulation is more greedy

**k13** · 10-12-11, 10:48 AM

Anyone have any O/U stats from last year?

**yisman** · 10-12-11, 10:49 AM

I think with goalies there's more variance. I do believe that some goalies are significantly better than others in shootout situations.

What that article was referring to was skaters. There are no skaters significantly better than the league average (statistically significant). Sure, one year a guy may get 60%, but it doesn't last.

For example, most consider Ovechkin to be the most talented goal scorer in the League. He's been average to below average with shootouts.

**rfr3sh** · 10-12-11, 10:51 AM

Unless you took the dog I think your bet turns -ev when the shootout starts

**yisman** · 10-12-11, 10:52 AM

^ agreed. If you bet -200 chalk and it goes to shootout (or even OT), I would not be feeling good just due to the randomness.

**k13** · 10-12-11, 11:54 AM

Does the the "shootout" goal count towards the "team" goal? I know it obviously counts for the o/u

I had a prop that neither team scores 4 goals yesterday and the final was 4-3 and the prop still won.

**OTL** · 10-12-11, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by k13

Does the the "shootout" goal count towards the "team" goal? I know it obviously counts for the o/u

I had a prop that neither team scores 4 goals yesterday and the final was 4-3 and the prop still won.

No, they don't count. The goals aren't recorded on the players' stat sheet either for shootouts.

**chachi** · 10-12-11, 12:25 PM

i had this argument on here I think two seasons ago ... I laid it out in concrete that it was madness and had no place in the game, and got slammed

**yisman** · 10-12-11, 12:28 PM

Shootouts are madness, agreed. I prefer ties.

**hels** · 10-12-11, 12:33 PM

Let's take the Pens for example. Last year in reg season they won their last 7 shootouts. They had Malkin shooting and Fleury in net (as well, this could have gone back to when Crosby was still in the lineup and shooting as well). Against Edmonton they were missing 3/4 of their typical shootout lineup and lost. Teams like Toronto perennially suck in shootouts too. Look at the lineups and how consistent the team is in OT and shootouts.