So hard to stop teams anymore, bad coaching , poor decisions
You cannot stop the pass anymore
Running is still very hard so everyone is fukkin passing
You cannot stop the pass anymore
Running is still very hard so everyone is fukkin passing
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Link Not Working - Removed-)Comment -
Yeh...interference calls are hurting gameComment -
Books are losing lots of money on squares betting overs right now.Comment -
would love to watch an ugly 13-9 game.Comment -
It's all these pussy rules that protect the QBs and offenses.Comment -
Add-in the roughing the QB rules too. QBs holding the ball longer as there is less risk of injury. Also drive extending roughing the passer calls.Comment -
just saw an ugly defensive game by steelers,but use to seeing ugly defensive games by steelersComment -
Defense is a thing of the past in the SEC as well!!Comment -
All about $ coach
People wanna see Tom Brady, not some fat fuk lineman.Comment -
Overs won't cash forever. Look for unders to cash more often from week 5 on.Comment -
Yep all the rule changes over the past few years to protect QB's and offensive players have changed the game into an offense first league.Comment -
i was going to make a thread telling people to not make a thread about this but i guess that would defeat the purpose.
the books see whats happening, they will adjust the numbers if nothing else. let this sh#t thread die.
but the corrections probably coming soon anyway.Comment -
I said bet the overs on the board for the first month. I dont see any reason to change that now. As of right now theyre 24-7. So a definite an obvious advantage to the over.
Now how will it change? Books add to their totals? Defenses get better? A little bit of both? Still smart to press on betting overs? Or is it a good to take what you have and run? +16 units is pretty impressive after 2 weeks just betting a hunch.
Even if books do adjust can they adjust enough? I mean will they really post O/U of 60 or more? Not likely. They still have to approach it realistically. They cant just post ridiculous numbers and hope theyre close, just to 'even' out the results. They dont really care about short term results or even if there seems to be an advantage. Unless everyone was betting those overs they arent getting beat up too bad. But the common train of thought is 'the public' bets overs. Which may or may not be true. But even if it is there are enough of the 'play against the public' mentality guys who will help the books out a lot by betting the unders because the public bets the overs.
I am going to keep betting the overs for tip money like I have the first two weeks, and also in college where overs are doing a pretty high percentage above "break even" as well.
Until I see marked improvement in the defenses I dont see a change, and nothing yesterday showed me any really consistent improvement in any defenses. The only team that has looked 'good' on defense is Houston, bit then again they have played Indy and Miami so what can be garnered from that?
But I figure this week we se some better efforts, and by week 4 it will be getting back to 'normal'. Then after that I am thinking defenses will have it togther. and maybe then if books have over adjusted (I doubt it) then betting the unders accross the board might be worth a look.Comment -
doesnt have to be 60 or more want. they'll make it 47 now instead of 41 and that will make the difference.Comment -
Not when teams are scoring 50 or more a game. It might make a few people take the under, but it doesnt mean the result will be under. Results are indicative of reality. Unless youre a square like me who bets stuff on the blind then the fact that overs are 24-7 doesnt mean anything. All it does is gives touts a nice catch phrase for the wek and a reason why they like the over "ALL GAMES ARE GOING OVER NOW BECAUSE DEFENSES SUCK", or the under "GAMES HAVE BEEN GOING OVER FOR WEEKS VEGAS IS SMART THEY WILL ADJUST, TIME TO TAKE THE UNDER HUGE IN THIS GAME". So it cuts both ways. Short term things have reasons. And sooner or later they swap back and forth, but it isnt because of a single thing effecting them. Defenses will get better, guys will get hurt, books may adjust, or people will just move the line too much on enough games to make it seem like it is regressing.
Thats why I dont like blanket stats, blanket ATS datamining, or even complex math to explain why things may or may not happen. these games and results happen regardless of the pointspreads and bets placed on them. The only reason people notice the results is because they are a seeming anomaly. If the results were 15-16 no one would even care. Everything else could be exactly the same. The only reason they would be 'balanced' is because the lines would have been 'bad' (at least before the game started). So vegas can either gamble and post numbers so high they cant hope to come close to balanced action and get a nice 'even' ATS result split, or they can post the realistic ones and hope they keep the action balanced.
Like I said just because the results are what they are doesnt mean everyone is cashing in. It just means that is how the results have shaken out. It is hard to grasp sometimes and a lot of people get caught up in the meaningless stuff trying to make something out of nothing. Results only matter if you took advantage of them before they became results. Looking at them after the fact doesnt mean shit.Comment -
Books are slow to respond.
A 49 for the Eagles vs. Falcons? Come on.Comment -
Passing league....if you sack the QB its a personal foul....if a WR goes over the middle you cant tackle him or its a personal foul...all the rules are aimed at offenseComment -
Lions defense seems to be doing well.Comment -
I cannot believe overs are 24-7 or so right now
I do not think lines makers adjust too much either in nfl
maybe weather brings down some of scoring as we get in cooler monthsComment -
It is a good thing to meComment
