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wow
1) the cubs weren't expected to be this bad before the season started, so when exactly would you start taking the phillies -300 against them? once it was a proven fact or would you just have a crystal ball?
2) the cubs this year are an awful 2-5 against the phillies but that's still around 29%
3) the cubs last year (2010) were pretty awful too and were 4-2 against the phillies
i DO understand the game and i know that no 65% team is going to beat a 40% team 75% of the time over the course of 162 games. that would be 122-40 and sorry but the odds of that happening would be about zero no matter how much you try to spin it.
AND NOW YOU'RE SAYING YOU WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE CUBS COULDN'T WIN 30 GAMES HEADS UP!
THAT WOULD BE 133-29 FOR THE PHILLIES OR 82%!!!!
when's the last time, even with a huge pitching advantage, you saw a line of -450 on the phillies vs the cubs? it would have to be that line EVERY time, even in chicago.
crazy stuff happens in baseball - that's why even the best teams in history don't go anything close to 75%. only one team in history ever did that, the 1906 cubs.
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wow 1) the cubs weren't expected to be this bad before the season started, so when exactly would you start taking the phillies -300 against them? once it was a proven fact or would you just have a crystal ball? 2) the cubs this year are an awful 2-5 against the phillies but that's still around 29% 3) the cubs last year (2010) were pretty awful too and were 4-2 against the phillies i DO understand the game and i know that no 65% team is going to beat a 40% team 75% of the time over the course of 162 games. that would be 122-40 and sorry but the odds of that happening would be about zero no matter how much you try to spin it. AND NOW YOU'RE SAYING YOU WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE CUBS COULDN'T WIN 30 GAMES HEADS UP! THAT WOULD BE 133-29 FOR THE PHILLIES OR 82%!!!! when's the last time, even with a huge pitching advantage, you saw a line of -450 on the phillies vs the cubs? it would have to be that line EVERY time, even in chicago. crazy stuff happens in baseball - that's why even the best teams in history don't go anything close to 75%. only one team in history ever did that, the 1906 cubs.
the phillies have about a 73- 77% winning percentage this year against teams with losing records
pretty sure if they played the cubs a 100 times, they would likely win about 75 of those gamesComment -
Brahma y dont u just not bother posting plays here anymore...I mean look at the grief u gotta deal with day in day out? If that were me id have stopped ages ago. Ur making the $$$ and thats all that matters...Dont listen to these stupid overopinionated fukks who r too scared to pick a winner.
But if u enjoy the bickering and bs slander then all the more power to yaComment -
The thing with Brahma is that he actually has pretty good reasoning and does some decent research on his picks but he is so far off-base on his model or lack-of. The reason why he has so much opposition on his picks (besides the fact he like big FAVs) is that he is the single most annoying personality on the forum. The guy will surface with these made up numbers as w/l and always credit his loses solely on "bad luck".
He refuses advice and then comes up with these generic insults about people not being carrying his jock or sperm.
He does everything he can to throw his plays in your face and truly feels like he is proving something to people by showing how much $ he has (not the mention the 100K sales job he claims). The dude is a proven liar and full of s**t. He has a wrestler in his avatar.Comment -
these types of responses show why people lose at betting sports.wow
1) the cubs weren't expected to be this bad before the season started, so when exactly would you start taking the phillies -300 against them? once it was a proven fact or would you just have a crystal ball?
2) the cubs this year are an awful 2-5 against the phillies but that's still around 29%
3) the cubs last year (2010) were pretty awful too and were 4-2 against the phillies
i DO understand the game and i know that no 65% team is going to beat a 40% team 75% of the time over the course of 162 games. that would be 122-40 and sorry but the odds of that happening would be about zero no matter how much you try to spin it.
AND NOW YOU'RE SAYING YOU WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE CUBS COULDN'T WIN 30 GAMES HEADS UP!
THAT WOULD BE 133-29 FOR THE PHILLIES OR 82%!!!!
when's the last time, even with a huge pitching advantage, you saw a line of -450 on the phillies vs the cubs? it would have to be that line EVERY time, even in chicago.
crazy stuff happens in baseball - that's why even the best teams in history don't go anything close to 75%. only one team in history ever did that, the 1906 cubs.
A line isnt a prediction. Nor does it give you the probability of a result. It is there to make people bet one side or the other.
Seriously how many times have I read "looks like a trap' or 'line is too low" this week alone? People are just dumb. If a line is 'supposed' to be -300 and it is posted -200 people might not take so much notice. But if it 'supposed to be -200 and is posted -150 they will. Or if a dog is +135 instead of +120, people get scared because it looks 'too good to be true'. That is why people lose. They cant pick winners in the first place,then when books gift wrap something they get scared because it is either too big or looks like a 'trap'. And enough of them lose to keep that fairy tale going in their minds.
But by your line of thinking because Phillies have won 65% of their games this year to date they should never be more than -185 in any game they play. Because that is how you process stuff, whatever the line is is what chance they have of winning. When that isnt the case at all.
Cubs suck, them losing to the Phillies 130 times in a season if they just played each other wouldnt be a shock. Assuming both teams played their best ball every game. Never going to happen obviously but I was saying it mor to make apoint than anything else. You just dont have the logic to figure that out.Comment -
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wantitall4moi
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he's far and away one of the smartest posters on this site
everything he says is pretty much exactly how I feelComment -
holy shit someone is actually posting real bets with real money!!
AH fuk that guy1!
instead lets praise up the guy who plays with monopoly money and makes threads for his predictions, the majority of which never come true. And when one of his stinkers finally floats you all act like girls in highschool.
hmm who could I be talking about??Comment -
This is almost EXACTLY how it was with Landers when he was on his hot streak. Guy wins a few games and thinks hes a genius, suckering in all the people who dont know any better based on the well-proven capping method of "this guy sucks, he should be +1200 no way they win this game." Then he wins a few and everyone thinks "wow it really is that easy, sports betting is free money!" after which regression toward the mean collapses his record and his bankroll.
Guess what? You are not smarter than Vegas based on reading ESPN previews for games. These numbers will not keep up at this rate, and that is not "hating" it's understanding basic statistics and experience.
And seriously, anyone who's cocky about sports betting while playing 20 cent baseball lines aint playin with a full deck.Originally posted by Dark HorseComment -
just let the man make his picks ,
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some of us aren't too scared to pick a winner
i have been on a huge roll lately on my picks here too but some of us don't go spouting off about how great we are and how all the haters suck on a daily basis...
here's my posted plays lately and they weren't all monster chalk to make me look good at 16-4:
8/19 brewers -136 WIN
8/17 detroit -1 1/2 -120 WIN
8/11 seahawks/chargers over 35 WIN
8/4 yankees -1 1/2 +145 WIN
8/3 grand salami over -110 WIN
7/29 milwaukee -1 1/2 -120/stlouis -170/cleveland -155 ROUND ROBIN/THREE TEAM PARLAY WINNER
I HAVE WON MY LAST 8 PICKS HERE, THAT'S 8-0 AND NONE OF THEM WERE MORE THAN -170 BUT I HAVEN'T BEEN AN ARROGANT PRICK ABOUT IT - NEVER MENTIONED IT BEFORE RIGHT NOW.
so please, some of you rookies just keep your mouths shut about who might or might not be making money/winning picks around here if you don't know what you're talking about.
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Brahma, don't take no shit off this twink Rod. He recently bet on a -560 and lost big. Funniest fail I've seen here in quite some timeComment -
some of us aren't too scared to pick a winner i have been on a huge roll lately on my picks here too but some of us don't go spouting off about how great we are and how all the haters suck on a daily basis... here's my posted plays lately and they weren't all monster chalk to make me look good at 16-4: 8/19 brewers -136 WIN 8/17 detroit -1 1/2 -120 WIN 8/11 seahawks/chargers over 35 WIN 8/4 yankees -1 1/2 +145 WIN 8/3 grand salami over -110 WIN 7/29 milwaukee -1 1/2 -120/stlouis -170/cleveland -155 ROUND ROBIN/THREE TEAM PARLAY WINNER I HAVE WON MY LAST 8 PICKS HERE, THAT'S 8-0 AND NONE OF THEM WERE MORE THAN -170 BUT I HAVEN'T BEEN AN ARROGANT PRICK ABOUT IT - NEVER MENTIONED IT BEFORE RIGHT NOW. so please, some of you rookies just keep your mouths shut about who might or might not be making money/winning picks around here if you don't know what you're talking about. 
Couldnt agree with u more Mikey...Keep on building that BR bro and fukk the h8ers 
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I bet a lot of favorites.....I mix in underdogs and very slight favs alot too but I have also been doing well picking winners on bigger favorites.........To me every game can have an edge with the lines given and it can be an underdog just as well as a big favorite with a line not even as high as it should be. So to me, it's all about picking winners (duh) when it comes down to it. There will always be a lot of big favorites that will win any given night as well as some dogs. If you can spot and pick out the right plays more often than not (and even more often than not when betting on big favorites) than isn't that the whole point of this gambling thing in the first place?
Too much hate and bickering against people that take a different approach.......There are many different ways to win in sports betting. Brahma keep up the good work bro
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Couldn't have said it any better. I am 20-6 in my last 26 picks but I don't go around proclaiming I'm the best capper on this site. If he would shut up and just post his picks there wouldn't be all this hate. He runs his mouth cuz it gets him attention and his threads get a lot of responses and views because of it. Anyone who has done this for longer than a month knows he will come crashing back to earth with the way he bets.some of us aren't too scared to pick a winner
i have been on a huge roll lately on my picks here too but some of us don't go spouting off about how great we are and how all the haters suck on a daily basis...
here's my posted plays lately and they weren't all monster chalk to make me look good at 16-4:
8/19 brewers -136 WIN
8/17 detroit -1 1/2 -120 WIN
8/11 seahawks/chargers over 35 WIN
8/4 yankees -1 1/2 +145 WIN
8/3 grand salami over -110 WIN
7/29 milwaukee -1 1/2 -120/stlouis -170/cleveland -155 ROUND ROBIN/THREE TEAM PARLAY WINNER
I HAVE WON MY LAST 8 PICKS HERE, THAT'S 8-0 AND NONE OF THEM WERE MORE THAN -170 BUT I HAVEN'T BEEN AN ARROGANT PRICK ABOUT IT - NEVER MENTIONED IT BEFORE RIGHT NOW.
so please, some of you rookies just keep your mouths shut about who might or might not be making money/winning picks around here if you don't know what you're talking about.
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very true boxer.
this pattern has repeated dozens of times, and without fail the cockiest guys here are the ones that see their fortunes turn (karma?)
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A few points about this guy.
1.- He is right about moneylines faves not being always a bad deal. If your model gives you a better win probability than the one implied on the odds, the bet has +EV. He said that, so looks like he understand value, although he later goes to the usual crap "a winner is a winner, no matter the odds". So, a bipolar guy...
2.- One problem is, he most possibly does not have a reliable model. He usually goes into small streaks, "hot" teams and such nosense. So, it is hard to evaluate the correct probabilities and the EV.
3.- Betting into large favorites has a mind trap. You are skewing the distribution, with a higher probability of being ahead on the short run, balanced by a deeper hole probability if things go wrong. So, you see the bankroll growing most of the days until a large loss day. And then once again the bankroll starts climbing. So, the mind tricks you into thinking that the system is a winner, as most days confirm it, and disregard the bad days as unlucky.
4.- As DrStale said, once the good streak kicks in, the guy thinks he is very smart and gets cocky. And that is the stuff that made Brock famous.
5.- Any real handicapper knows that the line is not easy to beat. There are seldom EV higher than 3%, especially on sides. So, this is a long run grind, and you must extract every cent if you want to be a long term winner. Brahmabull is giving back 1%+ value for not shopping the best line, so the chances to be a long run winner are diminished.
In the end, he is clearly not a sharp gambler. I wish him good, hopefully he continue winning, and learn and improve his betting. And better yet, he learns that being humble is the way to go in life.Comment -
People in this thread were supporting him
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This is absurd and sounds like something brahmabull would say.
The Phillies wouldn't beat the Cubs 75% of the time.
Great. Have fun hitting 60% on -200 bets.I dont give a shit what the odds are as long as I win more than I lose[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
What did I miss? Did he do an all in like kerrywood and lose?[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Phillies have won nine of their last ten, they are 90% to win their next match I bet at -200.Comment -
showing the lack of logic again, he lost with a -177 fav and an even money Rl bet. So 0-2 down 277. I would hardly call that laying a lot of 'juice' which by the way you dont have any understanding of in the first place. He has 3 plays in action with an over outlay of -377 which is right around a -125 number on average. I wouldnt call that overly taxing. Home RL play yeah maybe, but he isnt going crazy on odds.Comment -
where's brahma bull?
a lousy 0-3 day and that's it he packs up and goes after all that bullshit talk about how awesome he is?
and the tailer wantitall4moi who thinks the phillies should win 90% of their games against sub-.500 teams - how's that working out for you lately?
no need to comment, your comments about how bad the atlanta closers have been doing and how the top 3 atlanta starters have a whip "much better" than the brewers top 3 says it all
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