So you think Torain will start? Torain was good last year but so are most playing for Shanahan. Hightower ran for 4.8 a carry on a team with no passing game could have a big year. I think the other guys are non factors except Williams might still be the third down back or could be Hightower.
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Back in early May, I gave you an in-depth look at rookies for the upcoming NFL season who were selected on Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 of the NFL draft. And now I'll tell you why you probably shouldn't draft any of them.
Jerry Lai/US PresswireRookie running backs used to better fantasy options, but the rise of committees makes guys like the Saints' Mark Ingram shakier options now.
I think most experienced fantasy football players know that it's rare for a rookie NFL player to live up to his pre-draft hype in his first season. After all, in redraft leagues, you aren't drafting a potential-laden prospect's entire career. As high as you think his ceiling might be, that ceiling probably won't come in Year 1. Ah, but then your fantasy draft arrives and you see those bright and shiny new names and something happens in your stomach. The butterflies tell you about "upside" and "opportunity," and you begin to dream big. What if you get the biggest steal of your life! So you hear yourself say the name "Ryan Mathews" circa 2010. Or "Donald Brown" circa 2009. Or "Darren McFadden" circa 2008. And you take your fantasy team's life into your hands.
Six quarterbacks were selected in the first 36 picks of this April's draft, which in a way is good news, because rookie passers rarely fool us these days. As laudable as Sam Bradford's rookie campaign was in '10 (he set the record for pass attempts and completions by a first-year player), he still only finished as fantasy's No. 20 quarterback. In the past five seasons, Bradford ('10), Matt Ryan ('08) and Vince Young ('06) were clearly the best-performing rookie fantasy signal-callers but were barely worth owning -- and certainly weren't worth starting -- in 10-team leagues. None of them finished higher than 12th among fantasy quarterbacks. (Young was 12th in '06, while Ryan was 15th in '08.) So while you might believe in the fantasy futures of Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick, you shouldn't be planning on drafting them this summer.
But there are other temptations. A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Jonathan Baldwin are all first-round wideouts. Mark Ingram is a first-round runner. Ryan Williams, Kyle Rudolph, Titus Young, Lance Kendricks, Shane Vereen, Mikel Leshoure, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, Daniel Thomas and Randall Cobb are all skill-position players taken in the second round. These 14 men have basically unlimited talent. Some of them will eventually be stars. But I'll be entering my drafts in August planning on not owning any of them. Here's why.
First- and second-round disappointments
By season's end last year, exactly six rookies wound up with positive values in terms of value-based drafting. (Note that throughout this column, when I refer to "VBD points," I'm referring to standard 10-team ESPN.com leagues.) An examination of those players hints at an overall performance problem for the most highly drafted NFL rookies in recent years:
Notable 2010 rookies
Player Pos Round Selected Pick Selected Fantasy Points Position Rank VBD Points
Mike Williams (TB) WR 4 101 151 12 48
Jahvid Best RB 1 30 127 23 42
LeGarrette Blount RB undrafted undrafted 126 25 41
Ryan Mathews RB 1 12 107 32 22
Rob Gronkowski TE 2 42 107 5 17
Chris Ivory RB undrafted undrafted 91 35 6
Notice anything odd? Two of these skill-position players were drafted in the first round of the '10 NFL draft. One was drafted in the second. But last year's best rookie was a fourth-rounder, and two others were completely undrafted. Meanwhile, as a group the skill players who were taken in the first round of last year's NFL draft performed, shall we say, inconsistently:
2010 first-round skill-position players
Player Pos Pick Selected Fantasy Points Position Rank VBD Points
Sam Bradford QB 1 180 20 -
C.J. Spiller RB 9 41 62 -
Ryan Mathews RB 12 107 32 22
Jermaine Gresham TE 21 64 21 -
Demaryius Thomas WR 22 32 99 -
Dez Bryant WR 24 98 39 -
Tim Tebow QB 25 95 30 -
Jahvid Best RB 30 127 23 42
Zoinks. Injuries, depth-chart issues and flat-out bad play zapped six out of last year's eight skill-position first-rounders. Plus, Mathews and Best owners can attest that watching those two guys hobble around during their rookie seasons wasn't always much fun. Look over the past five years, and you see a woeful record of first- and second-round picks striking it rich for their fantasy owners in their first campaigns:
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
1st Round Skill Position Draftees 8 13 8 11 10
# with VBD > 0 2 4 3 3 4
2nd Round Skill Position Draftees 8 5 16 11 10
# with VBD > 0 1 0 4 0 1
That is a mournful and bedraggled 32 percent hit rate on first-round rookies and a 12 percent hit rate on second-rounders. Even if we remove quarterbacks and tight ends from the equation out of pure charity (based on the notion that they rarely strike it big right away), the remaining running backs and wide receivers hit only 44 percent in the first round and 14 percent in the second.
Translation: Even if you stick to selecting only super highly drafted rushers and receivers, you're likelier to draft a guy who won't help you at all.
Rookie studs ain't what they used to be
Maybe it would be easier to take this risk -- to select a highly touted rookie running back or wideout early in your fantasy draft -- if the reward were higher. But '09 and '10 were fairly terrible seasons for top-end rookie production. Here are the top 10 VBD rookie seasons of the past five years; note that only one hails from '09 or '10:
Top 10 Rookie VBD seasons, 2006-10
Player Pos Year Drafted Round Selected Pick Selected Fantasy Points Position Rank VBD Points
Adrian Peterson RB 2007 1 7 228 3 134
Maurice Jones-Drew RB 2006 2 60 219 8 123
Matt Forte RB 2008 2 44 227 5 121
Steve Slaton RB 2008 3 89 214 6 108
Chris Johnson RB 2008 1 24 194 11 88
Joseph Addai RB 2006 1 30 176 11 80
Marshawn Lynch RB 2007 1 12 169 12 75
Reggie Bush RB 2006 1 2 169 14 73
Kevin Smith RB 2008 3 64 163 18 57
Mike Williams (TB) WR 2010 4 101 151 12 48
I find it fairly amazing that not a single rookie rusher over the past two seasons has finished higher than 18th in fantasy points, especially when guys like Peterson and Forte recently submitted such landscape-altering first campaigns.
Is this a trend? I don't think we can say for sure. On the one hand, it's a small sample size. High-profile first-year busts like C.J. Spiller and Donald Brown skew the results in a major way. By the same token, the continued rise of committees may be taking the steam out of potential rookie breakouts. Were the Chargers really willing to give Ryan Mathews their lead role last year, or was Mike Tolbert always going to be a fantasy drain? (The point became moot when Mathews hurt an ankle early in the season.) When the Bills drafted Spiller, it was fairly obvious they had a committee in mind at least at first, considering both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch were still on the roster. No question, potential committees have to be taken on a case-by-case basis, but they're an obvious factor.
A couple of other points about rookie studs. First, as the above list illustrates, wideouts rarely make a huge fantasy difference in their first seasons. Yes, it's possible for a rookie wideout to notch positive-VBD seasons (nine have done so in the past five years: Mike Williams (TB), Marques Colston, Percy Harvin, Eddie Royal, Dwayne Bowe, DeSean Jackson, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace and Austin Collie), but even then the rewards are middling: Only three of these guys finished among the top 20 WRs overall (Williams, Colston and Royal). This is sobering news. When ESPN Fantasy did its rankings summit in early May, we held a corresponding chat event, and perhaps the most asked-about player that entire day was Falcons rookie WR Julio Jones. The man has backers galore among the public. They're almost certainly going to be disappointed.
Also, while we all love stories about Tom Brady getting drafted in the sixth round or Ahmad Bradshaw getting drafted in the seventh, those future fantasy stars didn't do much in their first seasons, and lightly-drafted (or undrafted) NFL rookies rarely do. Here's the sum total of rookies from '06 to '10 who were taken outside the first two rounds of the NFL draft and posted a positive VBD total:
Top lower-drafted rookies, 2006-10
Player Pos Year Drafted Round Selected Fantasy Points Position Rank VBD Points
Steve Slaton RB 2008 3 214 6 108
Kevin Smith RB 2008 3 163 18 57
Mike Williams (TB) WR 2010 4 151 12 48
LeGarrette Blount RB 2010 undrafted 126 25 41
Marques Colston WR 2006 7 145 14 37
Mike Wallace WR 2009 3 106 28 7
Tim Hightower RB 2008 5 112 35 6
Chris Ivory RB 2010 undrafted 91 35 6
Austin Collie WR 2009 4 101 30 2
Translation: The returns on reaching for rookies have been exceptionally meager the past two years. If you must reach, don't do it for QBs, WRs or TEs. And forget about dipping out of the first round or two. Let those guys come to you as fantasy free agents.
Rookies often lose platoons
Finally, a word about a "crutch argument" you often hear when it comes to rookies: "He's going to play. They wouldn't have drafted him that high if they weren't going to use him." Sometimes this is true, but absolutely not always. If you're falling prey to this argument on a generic basis, you're simply looking for reasons to draft a player higher than you probably should.
We already know quarterbacks don't subscribe to this logic. Only three rookie QBs the past five years have played 16 games (Bradford, Ryan and Flacco), while two others have played 15 (Sanchez and Young). For WRs it's a bit less clear; you sometimes see players like Mike Williams, Royal or Colston, who number among the league leaders in targets right away, but then you get guys like Calvin Johnson (rookie stats: 15 games, 48 catches, 4 TDs), Kenny Britt (16 games, 42 catches, 2 TDs) or -- heaven forfend! -- Darrius Heyward-Bey (11 games, 9 catches, 1 TD), who have a hard time breaking into the rotation.
However, this crutch argument is most frequently used to address running backs. These days, it seems it's no longer taboo for NFL teams who already have quasi-serviceable rushers to draft another man at the same position, and it's for these rookie RBs we often reach. "Well, if they liked the incumbent so much," we reason, "they wouldn't have spent a first-round pick on his potential replacement!" That logic probably is true if you imagine a two- or three-year window. But when you're considering only a rusher's rookie year, it's often not. Here are 13 situations over the past five years where an incoming first-round running back had to battle at least one veteran for touches:
First-round RBs with real competition, 2006-10
Player Yr Incumbent G Total Touches Total Yards Total TDs VBD Points
Reggie Bush 2006 Deuce McAllister 16 243 1307 8 73
Darren McFadden 2008 Justin Fargas 13 142 784 4 -
Adrian Peterson 2007 Chester Taylor 14 257 1609 13 134
C.J. Spiller 2010 Fred Jackson / Marshawn Lynch 14 98 440 1 -
Jonathan Stewart 2008 DeAngelo Williams 16 192 883 10 33
Laurence Maroney 2006 Corey Dillon 14 197 939 7 31
Felix Jones 2008 Marion Barber 6 32 276 3 -
Rashard Mendenhall 2008 Willie Parker 4 21 75 0 -
Chris Johnson 2008 LenDale White 15 294 1488 10 88
DeAngelo Williams 2006 DeShaun Foster 13 154 814 2 -
Donald Brown 2009 Joseph Addai 11 89 450 3 -
Jahvid Best 2010 Kevin Smith 16 229 1042 6 42
Beanie Wells 2009 Tim Hightower 16 188 936 7 18
Peterson and Johnson did exceedingly well here, which is unsurprising considering what we know about them now. Bush basically lost his rushing battle to McAllister but caught 88 passes and thus submitted a strong first season. Best won his battle by default, as Kevin Smith was injured. Jones and Mendenhall got hurt early. But boy, there sure are some mediocre seasons mixed in here, aren't there? And some shockingly low usage. Even removing Jones and Mendenhall, this group averaged 189 total touches in its first campaign. Last season, 189 touches would've ranked 31st among NFL RBs. Truly, that's not a recipe for fantasy studhood.
Translation: No rookie is guaranteed playing time just because he gets drafted early.Comment -
i think it will be a week by week thing with shanahan just like it always has been since terrell davis.
Hightower wont be starting on any team of mine. He just won't be sitting toraine,williams and helu so hightower can run the ball the whole game.
He gets drafted in 1 league out of 8 in the last 2 rounds. If you want him get him. Good bye week replacement is all.
Nothing wrong with taking him late.Comment -
Bookmarked. ThanksComment -
Looks like warrior learned how to copy and paste.
[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
I would downgrade Dallas Clark slightly since Jacob Tamme developed pretty well last year and will steal some of his catches. Jermichael Finley is the guy I'm targeting.....the guy is a freak if he can stay healthy! RB Blount flies under the radar somewhat in Tampa and will probably be available in the 3rd round in most leagues.Comment -
you want finley who is not even 100 percent yet and a rodgers spreads it out too much. He goes too early in drafts . Never take a tight end of a starting wr or rb you can have. good luck with that and join my leagues. finley will just have too many games where he doesn't get enough fantasy points.Comment -
That enlightening update on Jeremy Maclin's health we were "definitely" going to get on Tuesday never came. So everyone in the media is still left to speculate about what is wrong with the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver.
According to ProFootballTalk.com, "[T]he word in the locker room is that Maclin suffers from mononucleosis and/or the lingering effects of it. Maclin disclosed in April that he lost 15 pounds in February with a 'mono-like' illness."
However, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman echoed Tuesday a lot of the statements we've heard from team coaches and personnel when he said, "We anticipate him being back here shortly."
This may be a whole lot of nothing. Or for some of you, this could be the beginning of the Madden Curse working its black magic.
Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis suffered a hamstring injury near the end of practice Wednesday. Head coach Pat Shurmur said Hillis felt his hamstring nag "just a little bit" and wouldn't classify it as a true injury just yet.
"This is the time of year when you start to get some soft-tissue injuries," Shurmur said.Comment -
Chris Harris from ESPN is a fucken hamburgerComment -
post some of your mocks or drafts so we can grade them pacoComment -
On ESPN: SportsCenter Fantasy Draft Special, 7 p.m. ETComment -
ppr league. would you rather have hines ward or emmanual sanders? and what kind of stats do you expect from both?Comment -
This advice would have been awesome before my draft
Like I said, it's my first EVER fantasy draft of any sport so I think I did alright taking that into account. I wanted a running back first round but the pool was too diluted by the time it got to me so I had to go for overall talent. I willingly took Rivers over Brees, Manning, or any receiver and I stand by that decision. The guy is the team and he puts them on his back.
With that being said, here's some plays available:
Fred Jackson, Terrell Owens, Thomas Jones, Brandon Jackson, Ryan Torain, Nate Washington, Hines Ward, Rashad Jennings, Cadillac Williams, Mike Williams, Darren Sproles, etc.
Who should I drop for one of these pickups?Comment -
ward or sanders? neither unless forced too. Don't expect much from either. If you need one of these guys on your team then your really hurting.
Ward gets drafted a little too early so Id rather have sanders that goes late in drafts
Watch tonights game and see if either look good. Ward is on his last leg but can have some good gamesComment -
Delone carter,
jennings
Comment -
Not picking up Carter... Who do I drop for Jennings? Burress?Comment -
Picked up Fred Jackson for Burress. Burress has some ankle problems early on here in preseason and Fred Jackson is for all-intensive purposes a starting RB who will likely probably get about 70% of the carries unless Spiller explodes.Comment -
Great Post!
TT - read the first few pages and last two pages so sorry if I missed any of what I'm about to ask. I had a few questions for you and wanted to see what you thought about some of my undervalued sleepers:
A) Who would you take number 1 overall today in non ppr league?
B) I have Jennings and Fitzgerald underrated from where they are being drafted. I would take them over Nicks, Wayne, etc. I think Fitz will benefit from a decent passing schedule and a porous defense and weak running game. I have seen Jennings rated 8-10 overall for wr's and I think he is Rodgers number one option and will continue to be with FInley's return only helping hiim. Do you agree or disagree?
C) I think that Blount is this years sleeper rb. Being taken at an ADP of mid 3rd round in non ppr leagues, he's a steal and I project 1500 yards and 10-12 tds. I plan to take him and lock him up as my 2nd rb as I pick first in a non ppr 10 team league. Do you agree? Of course I would take a forte over him if avail, but i plan on s jax, s green, hillis, blount to be avail thru my research.
D) Is there an arian foster this year? I had him last year as well as rice and mccoy as sleepers the previous year.Comment -
If you are picking 11th out of 12 in a fantasy draft, does that change your strategy or do you still draft a qb or the best available player? I just found out I have the 11th pick, and there for the 2nd pick in the second round. So I will get 2 of the 14 players. Who should I hope falls. I suspect that peyton will fall. I have to believe that Arodg, Brees, Brady, AJohnson, APeterson, Fitz, CJohnson, Vick, PRivers, RayRice, RoddyWhite, and Charles Johnson will be gone. Sheesh, I need to get out of that league immediately. What's/Who's left to pick at 11th and 13th. Thanks.Comment -
ded i agee with fitz, like fitz alot
#1 pick , tough one right now and i dont think you can go wrong with any of the top guys like foster, ap, cj and ive even seen some take charles . I still like foster better at 1.
Love blount in a non ppr also, like him over s green also
I see no arian fosters unless someone gets injured. Perhaps an uninjured ryan mathews
Lynch with them starting 2 tight ends which helps blockingComment -
you need to get busy with the mocks, if your league starts 2 rb 2 wr, flex instead of 2 rb, 3 wr flex
then qb's will go earlier. If not they go later.
Brady averages 1st pick in round 3, rivers and manning in mid round 3. fitz should be there for sure at 11 easily.
Most 1st round drafts are
AP, foster, cj, j charles, r rice, l mccoy, vick, andre johnson, mendenhall, calvin johnson, roddy white, a rodgers.
I would wait on a qb, plenty to go around and if you don't like a schaub in round six, you can always get a backup later. Id go wr rb or rb wr at 11 and after your 4 picks have 2 rb and 2 wr unless rivers makes it back to you in round 3 or 4 or manningComment -
You are on it. Of the "most 1st round drafts", I see 4 players I wouldn't even pick in round 1. McCoy, Mendy, Foster, and Ray Rice. I would pick any of those guys first. Roddy helped me win last year, but that's because I thought he would have a breakout year. My first two picks last year were ARodg and Roddy, I never had any doubt I wouldn't win last year. This year, I am scared as hell because the two guys I thought were under the radar are first picks this year.Comment -
Drop Tebow, Plax, and Cook... Don't need two TEs, damn sure don't need 3 QBs, and Plax isn't worth a spot right now... Get FJackson, RJennings, and if that is Mike Williams of Tampa Bay grab him, if it's the Seattle bum don't bother and go for maybe Torain or Hines Ward
This advice would have been awesome before my draft Like I said, it's my first EVER fantasy draft of any sport so I think I did alright taking that into account. I wanted a running back first round but the pool was too diluted by the time it got to me so I had to go for overall talent. I willingly took Rivers over Brees, Manning, or any receiver and I stand by that decision. The guy is the team and he puts them on his back.
With that being said, here's some plays available:
Fred Jackson, Terrell Owens, Thomas Jones, Brandon Jackson, Ryan Torain, Nate Washington, Hines Ward, Rashad Jennings, Cadillac Williams, Mike Williams, Darren Sproles, etc.
Who should I drop for one of these pickups?Comment -
fred jackson had to of been draftedComment -
I don't think he was the only playing/drafting for their first time...
So I ran two mock 12 team drafts recently (both as the 5th pick), where Vick, Rice, D.Bryant, McCoy, MWallace, Nicks, Williams, Foster and Holmes were kept. Obviously, I couldn't mock a draft with those guys going where they were suppose to (we play you give up 2 rounds from where you got the player the year before, ex. Foster was drafted 4th last year, so that guy will get him as his 2nd round pick etc...), but I've taken them out of my list of players to draft... what do ya think?
5. A Johnson WR
17. D. McFadden RB
29. L. Blount RB
44. Romo QB
53. S. Johnson WR
68. D. Thomas RB
77. M. Thomas WR
92. J. Graham TE
101. J. Jones WR
116. R. Bush RB
125. H. Ward WR
140. B. Tate RB
149. T. Smith WR
164. Hasselback QB (couldn't believe he was still here)
173. A. Henry K
188. Chiefs D
QB - Romo/Hasselback
RB - McFadden/Blount/DThomas/RBush/Tate
WR - Johnson/SJohnson/MThomas/JJones/HWard/TSmith
TE - Graham
K/D
Not too thrilled about this squad... C+ RBs and B to B- WRs, if Romo is good then I could be ok, but that's iffyComment -
Second draft, still 12 teams; tried to go more of a best available approach (not necessarily who I want, but who between my ranking and the ESPN/Yahoo rankings was best available)
5. A Johnson WR
17. S. Jackson RB
29. P. Hillis RB
44. K. Britt WR
53. A. Boldin WR
68. P. Garcon WR
77. O. Daniels TE
92. R. Torain RB
101. M. Stafford QB
116. J. Jones WR
125. M. Hardesty RB
140. A. Dixon RB
149. M. Hasselback
164. A. Henry K
173. A. Roberts WR
188. Giants D
QB - Stafford/Hasselback
RB - SJackson/Hillis/Torain/Hardesty/Dixon
WR - Johnson/Britt/Boldin/Garcon/JJones/Roberts
TE - Daniels
K/D
Once again, not overly impressive, IMO... RBs: C+ to B-, WRs: B- to B+, QBs flip a coin, but should be serviceable...Comment -
in both drafts the best available RB was MJD, and at 5 I'd rather have Andre, though I could probably have gotten a Larry Fitzgerald or Greg Jennings 2ndComment -
i dont care for mjd myself, not worth the risk, im not a fan of torain as they have so many rb on that team. Was there another rb you could get there. I like the stafford pickComment -
2 mocks i did tonight vick fell to almost last pick in round 2 just from a pre season game tonight, wow
My team is too good not sure i should post it
Mendy, forte, blount, d bryant, s holmes,manningham,ohco cinco big ben,roy williams, r jennings, gronkowski, celek,
jordy nelson, mcnabb,
wouldnt of done rb rb if i knew blount would of came back. It was ppr but still couldn't pass on him since i can start 3 rb. I'll gladly take bryant holmes, manningham at wr if i get those 3 rb and don't even need ocho to startComment -
will be in a money league which starts QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, flex, flex, D, K
should I fill that 2 flex spot with WR or RB?
I am wondering WR or RB which one has a better late round depth.
thanks for any advice.Comment -
hey ttwarrior, how you like my team? anywhere you think i can improve?
QB- Freeman
HB- Charles
HB- Blount
WR- V. Jackson
WR- Marshall
WR- Steve Johnson
TE- Jimmy Graham
WR/RB- Mark Ingram
K- KAEDING
DEF- DALLAS
BENCH- HB JENNINGS
BENCH- WR JORDY NELSON
BENCH- WR STEVE BREASTON
BENCH- HB DELONE CARTER
BENCH- HB JAVON RINGER
BENCH- WR JEROME SIMPSONComment -
dallas
no cowboy will ever be on my team as punishment.
Hard to say how you can improve, it will contend. You have no backup qb? I like your 2 starting rb, 3 wr, flex, k
graham , just need to stay healthy.
Anyone on free agency better than ringer. I like j simpson as a sleeper wr . I assume on bye week ingram will be at rb and u would start nelson or another at flex there and that will work outComment
