I'm here to make you money in fantasy football

[AlphaOmega]

The RB position is so key to success in fantasy football you can have a decent qb but if you have no good RB then you are a fish out of water

[ttwarrior1]

sanchez so your gonna take your chances on being that 1 or 2 teams in the draft that picks that studd rb in round 4 or 5?????????

Thats what Im saying kid.

If you want to go wr wr qb and lose then so be it. Good luck finding that p hillis in free agency this season and being that one guy that picks him up first.

[freeVICK]

got a draft today and it involves IDP. 2 dl, 2 LB, 2 DB... have no clue about defensive players. where can i find a solid cheat sheet for IDPs???

[freeVICK]

anyone?

[ttwarrior1]

http://www.fftoday.com/rankings/index.html

[ttwarrior1]

http://www.fantasyrundown.com/2011_Fantasy_Football.html

[freeVICK]

i need ONE and only one PPR cheat sheet to follow for my draft today. if you had to pick 1, which would it be

[ochenta y cinco]

I need opinions on this 10-team mock draft experiment I just tried. I had the 10th pick. I went WR-WR-RB-WR which I usually never do. Think I messed it up pretty bad, but wanted to hear advice anyway.

Round 1 - Pick 10: Andre Johnson WR
Round 2 - Pick 1: Roddy White WR
Round 3 - Pick 10: LeGarrette Blount RB
Round 4 - Pick 1: Mike Wallace WR
Round 5 - Pick 10: Knowshon Moreno RB
Round 6 - Pick 1: Santonio Holmes WR
Round 7 - Pick 10: Felix Jones RB
Round 8 - Pick 1: Marshawn Lynch RB
Round 9 - Pick 10: Josh Freeman QB
Round 10 - Pick 1: Joseph Addai RB
Round 11 - Pick 10: Mike Thomas WR
Round 12 - Pick 1: Donovan McNabb QB (Bradford, Stafford and Kolb all gone in the previous 5 picks, so it came down to McNabb vs Orton)
Round 13 - Pick 10: Brandon Pettigrew TE
Round 14 - Pick 1: NYG D/ST
Round 15 - Pick 10: Nick Folk K

Does my RB depth account for the absence of an elite tailback? How bad is it to have both Freemand and Blount on my roster?

[ttwarrior1]

ten team league is different then a 12 teamer, but you have great wr. You have s holmes sitting on your bench with this mock . Id go wr rb or rb wr next time

Not a bad team and blount could do well, but id rather have a better rb

I would never go wr wr ever unless a ppr and would have to go rb rb after that if i knew i could get a bradshaw, r mathews, etc

[onlooker]

The RB position is so key to success in fantasy football you can have a decent qb but if you have no good RB then you are a fish out of water

Well all I got to say is I pieced together RB's last year and finished 3rd. I wasn't far off of the Championship game either. I went RB.RB last year, and the guy that ended up being my best back was picked up in round 8 I think, that was McFadden. Rivers and McFadden carried me. Had R.Rice, R.Grant (Gone after 45 yards in week 1), Welker also helped (Late pick because people were scared of his injury), and Percy "Head Ache" Harvin. VD at TE. I did some smart FA pick ups, and finished strong. Some week to week defense swapping helped out a lot.

I need to start up mocking again, did that one and got lazy.

[seaborneq]

Why is Calvin Johnson not listed in your top 20 players this year?

[ttwarrior1]

? calvin is in my top 12

[sanchez]

sanchez so your gonna take your chances on being that 1 or 2 teams in the draft that picks that studd rb in round 4 or 5?????????

Thats what Im saying kid.

If you want to go wr wr qb and lose then so be it. Good luck finding that p hillis in free agency this season and being that one guy that picks him up first.

If you followed what I am saying and the evidence you would see there are MANY stud RBs that are drafted in round 4 and much later. People like you just get nervous because in the beginning of the season it looks as if there are only a few "stud" rbs, yet every year many emerge from the later rounds. RBs I'd rather have quantity and value picks over 2 high picks, 1 of which will bust statistically.

Statistically RB's have the highest bust percentage of any position in fantasy football, QBs and WRs are much more likely to live up to a high draft position.



So would you rather draft RB in the first two rounds, and one of them will bust statistically

Or

Draft 4-5 RBs through the later rounds, only 1 or 2 has to be successful, and you have flexibility as the season goes on with bye weeks, injuries, schedule/opponents week to week.




Worked pretty well for me last year, 12 team draft for $1,000
got
Charles in 3rd
Bradshaw 5th
Felix Jones 6th
McFadden 8th
Fred Jackson later

[ttwarrior1]

i wont be drafting 2 rb, Ill have 5 or 6 on my team by the end of a draft.

Ill go rb rb wr wr wr rb, te, qb qb, rb rb wr wr rb d k as an example

done plenty of drafts so far where i couldnt even get r mathews or a bradshaw after going wr wr, that showed me alot. This is 2011. of course there will be some studd rb in a later round, but only because of some injury to a starter

[dj_destroyer]

Picking 11th out of 12,

1. Rivers
2. Mendenhall
3. Fitzegerald
4. S. Greene
5. J. Graham
6. Colston
7. Ochocinco
8. Kolb
9. Hightower
10. Burress

Others: M. Thomas, Bears D, J. Brown, Tebow, J. Cooke

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF/SPT

How did I do? All the guys were pretty sharp. Only a few weaker guys. Never really got into the fantasy thing but I dipped in this year for $100.

[paco]

DJ, I'm sure u coulda did way better than Rivers as ur 1st pick.

[RITZ]

thanks TWarrior for the suggestions on rbi/wr2/rb/te/qb/qb may look at qb one or two spots earlier.
I am in keeper league ppr 12 team league and from last year's draft I have Rodgers 1st round /Forte 4th (looks like the way to go with him) /Santonio Holmes 8th round. From this info you provided need to keep Forte, correct?\

I have 5th pick and keeper in front of me will be Foster who was picked in a later round last year/so it looks like it will go 1st AP/2nd CJ/ 3 or 4 Ray Rice 3 or 4 Jamaal Charles/then me at #5 Lesean Mccoy/Andre Johnson/and Roddy White will be out there.
Who do i pick?

[onlooker]

Picking 11th out of 12,

1. Rivers
2. Mendenhall
3. Fitzegerald
4. S. Greene
5. J. Graham
6. Colston
7. Ochocinco
8. Kolb
9. Hightower
10. Burress

Others: M. Thomas, Bears D, J. Brown, Tebow, J. Cooke

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF/SPT

How did I do? All the guys were pretty sharp. Only a few weaker guys. Never really got into the fantasy thing but I dipped in this year for $100.

I'm with Paco on this, Rivers isn't a number one pick. You could of probably got him in the 3rd to 5th round.

[paco]

DJ, I'm sure u coulda did way better than Rivers as ur 1st pick.

I'm with Paco on this, Rivers isn't a number one pick. You could of probably got him in the 3rd to 5th round.

Actually, this whole team looks pretty bad DJ. U have no recievers at all besides Larry. (Ocho, uhhh maybe Brady might help him. Burress just coming out the joint and has Sanchez throwing to him. Colston is hurt if im not mistaken.) No #1 stud RB. Ur 1st pick Rivers (which makes no sense). I think Kolb (which is ur #8 will have a better fantasy year than Rivers) And Graham, ur 5th pick? Hope u do well, u did say this is ur 1st year, it takes a while to get the hang of it

[dj_destroyer]

Peterson, Vick, Rice, Rodger, Charles, Brady, Jones-Drew, A. Johnson, Foster, C. Johnson

It was either Rivers or:... Manning, Brees, or a WR like Nicks or White.

[ttwarrior1]

colston that late, huh
plenty of qb, rivers is a round 3 player, i got him round 4 last mock

[paco]

Peterson, Vick, Rice, Rodger, Charles, Brady, Jones-Drew, A. Johnson, Foster, C. Johnson It was either Rivers or:... Manning, Brees, or a WR like Nicks or White.

I prolly woulda went with McCoy, McFadden, White, or Brees

[onlooker]

Peterson, Vick, Rice, Rodger, Charles, Brady, Jones-Drew, A. Johnson, Foster, C. Johnson

It was either Rivers or:... Manning, Brees, or a WR like Nicks or White.

Wow! Vick #2, Rodgers #4, and Brady #6.

I wish my league would pick that way, if I have to pick in the 10 to 12 range. Leaving it open for a good RB, then getting a good WR. Shit, maybe even getting McCoy and then McFadden on the wrap around.

[sanchez]

Peterson, Vick, Rice, Rodger, Charles, Brady, Jones-Drew, A. Johnson, Foster, C. Johnson

It was either Rivers or:... Manning, Brees, or a WR like Nicks or White.

why wouldn't you take mccoy at 12??

[sanchez]

Picking 11th out of 12,

1. Rivers
2. Mendenhall
3. Fitzegerald
4. S. Greene
5. J. Graham
6. Colston
7. Ochocinco
8. Kolb
9. Hightower
10. Burress

Others: M. Thomas, Bears D, J. Brown, Tebow, J. Cooke

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF/SPT

How did I do? All the guys were pretty sharp. Only a few weaker guys. Never really got into the fantasy thing but I dipped in this year for $100.

so your team is....

QB
Rivers (Elite QB, good pick)
Kolb (bad pick)
Tebow (bad pick)

RB
Mendenhall (decent pick, I would pick up Isaac Redman in case something happens to Mendenhall)
Greene (Good sleeper this year)
Hightower (Decent sleeper)

WR
Fitzgerald (Good pick, he will be elite)
Colston (Risky pick, you may want to pick up Lance Moore or Meachem, or at least keep an eye on them)
Ochocinco (Potential, decent pick)
Mike Thomas (Solid pick, he will be solid)
Burress (I have low expectations but we'll see..)

TE
Jimmy Graham (Great pick, he will be an elite TE)
Jared Cooke (wasted pick, plenty of TEs on the waiver wire don't hold 2)

D/K Bears/Brown (whatever, all the same, just pick them last 2 picks always)

Advice
#1 - I am assuming this is standard scoring. You don't need 3 QBs. You should have added more WRs and RBs. Maybe you take a late QB as a backup, but with only 15 spots on your roster I would only hold Rivers, if something happens to him or bye week comes, there are plenty of QBs on the waiver wire. You wasted an early pick on Kolb, who you won't start unless Rivers gets hurt (unlikely) or for 1 bye week

#2 - You only need 1 TE in a 15 roster spot league. Instead of Cooke you should have another RB or WR. There are PLENTY of TEs on the waiver wire if something happens to Graham or for his bye week.

#3 - You need more RBs. They get hurt. They have the highest bust potential in Fantasy Football. You only have 3 for 2/3 spots, that's crazy.

#4 - Never draft a defense and kicker until your last 2 picks of a draft. They are unpredictable and you can play matchups every week if needed just fine. Get quality depth at WR and RB.



If you give me some names of who's available as far as WRs and RBs on your waiver wire, I'll give you some advice on who to pick up.

15 spots x 12 teams = 180 players

Players outside about the top 180 you should look at
Rashad Jennings
Jason Snelling
Shane Vereen
Bernard Scott
Emmanuel Sanders
Jason Hill
Denarius Moore
Louis Murphy
Javon Ringer
Anthony Armstrong
Delone Carter
Greg Little
Isaac Redman
Arrelious Benn
Donnie Avery

[malmstrom89]

Lol @ Phillip Rivers being a elite QB, more like a elite Choker!

[ttwarrior1]

not a choker in fantasy

We all must realize that in some of our leagues,, some do no preperation and not do a single mock and even show up with a draft sheet from last year.

[onlooker]

Lol @ Phillip Rivers being a elite QB, more like a elite Choker!

All I know is, Rivers helped carry my team last year. He might be in for a better year with VJax playing the whole season, baring injury. Last year he had a crop of patched together WR's, and still did great.

But still, not a #1 pick in any means.

[yisman]

Rivers is an elite QB.

[ttwarrior1]

Which TE owned in less than half of Yahoo! leagues has the highest upside? 1. Jared Cook: “Upside” is Cook’s middle name. Ok, it’s actually Alan, but it should be “Upside” considering that he has posted a 40 time under 4.5 and a vertical leap of 41 inches. Throw in soft hands and a 6-foot-5, 250 pound frame and you have the perfect beast for the TE position. New QB Matt Hasselbeck and OC Chris Palmer have gushed about Cook’s talents. And Cook likes what he sees from the new offense. “It’s kind of like a totally new offense, kind of time for tight ends and everybody else to shine. New quarterback, new system … Who wouldn’t look forward to that? It’s kind of setting you up for success.” I kind of agree.
2. Jermaine Gresham: Physical specimen could be very important for QB Dalton
3. Brent Celek: A season removed from a 76/971/8 line
4. Benjamin Watson: One of six TEs in ’10 with at least 100 targets

[ttwarrior1]

Which TE, given his draft cost, carries the most risk? 1. Dallas Clark: As much as it pains me to criticize any Hawkeye (except maybe Ricky Davis and Ronnie Harmon), I can’t sign off on Clark’s current Yahoo! ADP (46.9). He’s still wearing a brace on that injured wrist and may do so all season. The man has only played all 16 games once in his eight-year career.
2. Marcedes Lewis: Poor bet to repeat TD total. Great real-life TE, though
3. Zach Miller: It’s a transitional year and he’s tied to Tarvaris. Ugly setup
4. Heath Miller: He’s a bye-week option at best, but drafted top-12
5. Jeremy Shockey: Greg Olsen starred for Carolina in the preseason opener





Check out the historical record below: <table border="0" width="350"> <tbody><tr align="center"><td>YEAR</td><td>TE7</td><td>TE10</td><td>DIF</td></tr> <tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFCC"><td>2000</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>-7.2</td></tr> <tr align="center"><td>2001</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>-3.5</td></tr> <tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFCC"><td>2002</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>-3.3</td></tr> <tr align="center"><td>2003</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>-5.5</td></tr> <tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFCC"><td>2004</td><td>4</td><td>2</td><td>-6.8</td></tr> <tr align="center"><td>2005</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>-6.2</td></tr> <tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFCC"><td>2006</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>-4.1</td></tr> <tr align="center"><td>2007</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>-4.1</td></tr> <tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFCC"><td>2008</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>-4.9</td></tr> <tr align="center"><td>2009</td><td>11</td><td>4</td><td>-4.2</td></tr> <tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFCC"><td>2010</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>-7.4</td></tr> </tbody></table>
*TE7 = tight ends that averaged at least 7.0 ppg in standard-scoring formats
*TE10 = tight ends that averaged at least 10.0 ppg in standard-scoring formats
*DIF = ppg difference between No. 1 and No. 12 ranked tight ends (8-game minimum)

[rm18]

tt where is Tim Hightower going in drafts? I think he could be a top 5 running back this year

[ttwarrior1]

Adam Sparks : i agree 100 percent with Adam



Detroit Lions running back Jahvid best is on my list of potential breakout stars in 2011.
He was there before the season-ending injury to Detroit rookie Mikel Leshoure ensured that Best would, indeed, be getting the lion's share of the carries this season.
The knock on Best has been that he's injury prone, and I won't disagree there. He had a couple of surgeries while at Cal, but he's best known for that spectacular touchdown against Oregon State on November 6, 2009, when Best vaulted over Beavers safety Cameron Collins and landed on the back of his head from about 5 feet in the air.



The end result was a concussion that would sideline Best for the remainder of his junior season, his final year in college.
Last year, as a Lions rookie, Best battled nagging turf toe issues that severely limited his production and maddened fantasy football managers, particularly after the way Best started out his NFL career.
It's that start that I want to focus on and has me thinking Best has solid breakout potential in 2011.
I've got Best as an upper-tier RB2 option heading into the season, and I think he's got a decent chance to develop into an every-week starter by the end of the season. Here's why:
According to Best and the Lions, the second-year running back is 100 percent healthy heading into the 2011 season. Detroit offensive coordinator Scott Linehan raved about Best during training camp.
"Every rep he's taking now—at 100 percent healthy—he's taking it to another level," Linehan said.
Best has said he feels great, adding that there's "no way" the turf toe injuries from his rookie season would be an issue this year.
So all indications are that we're looking at a healthy Best. And when healthy, this guy can really play.
He scored five touchdowns over the first two weeks of 2010, breaking out in Week 2 against the Eagles with 78 rushing yards and two TDs on 17 carries, plus nine receptions for 154 yards and another TD.
The yardage totals weren't nearly as spectacular in week 1—14 carries, 20 yards; five receptions, 16 yards—but Best did find the end zone twice.
After that Week 2 explosion that had many fantasy managers scheming to acquire Best, the rookie didn't score another touchdown until December 26 at Miami, on a 53-yard reception.
He finished the season with 555 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 171 carries (3.2 yards per carry), and 58 receptions for 487 yards (8.4 yards per catch) and two TDs.
Best showed flashes of impressive play after those first two weeks, but it was mostly limited production and lots of day-to-day status reports that had fantasy managers frustrated.
So I understand the hesitation with Best heading into this season. But don't be afraid to give this guy a chance, because he's in a great position to have a breakthrough year.
Best is the leader of a Pac-10-heavy backfield in Detroit, which also has jerome harrison (Washington State Cougars), Maurice Morris (Oregon Ducks) and Mike Bell (Arizona Wildcats). He was expected to split carries with Leshoure this season, but the rookie from Illinois tore his Achilles' tendon in practice and will sit out the entire season.
That pushes Best into the spotlight, where I think he'll thrive. He's already proven himself adept in the passing game, giving fantasy managers that rushing-receiving combination that can produce big points.
And best of all, he's healthy. If he stays that way, he could end up being a big-time producer for your team in 2011.

[ttwarrior1]

rm in most drafts he is not even being drafted, last mock he went round 14 of 15

If its not a ppr league i wouldn't touch hightower. they simply have too many running backs on that team and hightower won't even be named starter. He started one pre season game and they have
ryan toraine , roy helu, keiland williams also

Just wouldn't trust shanahan from week to week but if you can get him late and want him then go for it.

[ttwarrior1]

The Vick factor: risk vs reward

There's something Shakespearean about Michael Vick.

He may not be the Chosen One (and heavy hangs the head who wears that crown, eh, LeBron?), but for a long time in the late 1990s and early 2000s Vick certainly seemed like a Chosen One. He was raised in hardscrabble Newport News, Va., in a crime-riddled public housing project, and dreamed of athletics as a way out. He threw for more than 400 yards in one game as a high school freshman, and later had a nine-TD high school game. In his first game as a redshirt frosh at Virginia Tech, Vick ran for three TDs in slightly more than a single quarter, and later led the Hokies to an 11-0 record and the national title game. Two years later, he was the first pick in the NFL draft, and by '03, he'd led the Falcons to the NFC title game.

Then came an almost unbelievable fall from grace. He spent 21 months in prison on dogfighting charges, the most serious of a long list of alleged legal issues. For years, Vick became a pariah and a punch line.

Now, apparently, he's back. His '10 season was a rousing success and the stuff of fantasy legend. He set career highs in passing yards, passing TDs, completion percentage, yards per attempt and rushing TDs. He wasn't even the Eagles' starting QB when the season began, but he wound up leading all QBs in fantasy points despite playing only 12 games. One glorious Monday night against the Redskins, Vick scored an unbelievable 49 fantasy points. This rags-to-riches-to-rags-to-riches storyline would make "Twelfth Night" blush.

But is the story over, here among the riches? Can Michael Vick stand success?
Year of the Quarterback

ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.
Year of the QB »

I have to admit I'm skeptical, and perhaps substantially more skeptical than my ESPN fantasy football brethren. As a group, we ranked Vick as the No. 2 fantasy QB for 2011, and as the No. 10 player overall. My own instinct is to rate him nowhere near that high. There's no question Vick has incredible athletic ability. But there are reasons to worry that he won't repeat his '10 production. It isn't enough to broadly proclaim, "He did it before, and he'll do it again!" or "The Eagles' offense is so much better than that Falcons', and that explains the difference!" If you're considering drafting Vick instead of a stud running back or wide receiver, you need nuanced reasons for doing so.

I must say that I don't totally dismiss the possibility Vick could recapture his '10 magic and validate anyone who drafts him super-early. I enter this analysis with an open mind, and will try to give Vick and his fantasy supporters their due when the numbers look positive. I'll also try to acknowledge where my opinion shades my conclusions. Overall, though, I think you'll wind up agreeing that if Michael Vick is to justify a first-round fantasy selection in '11, he has much history to overcome.

Vick As A Rushing Machine: The Play's The Thing

Vick brings "escapability" to new levels. It's not hard to argue he's the most dangerous running QB in NFL history, and he makes defensive coordinators' lives miserable. In terms of rushing yards by a QB, Vick owns four of the top six seasons in league history, including his 676 yards last year, which came in at No. 6. He's the only QB to ever run for 1,000-plus yards in a season.

Compare Vick's '10 season to those of other top fantasy QBs, and it's obvious how much Vick's legs matter to his fantasy value. Even in a year when he posted the best passing numbers of his NFL life, a vastly higher percentage of his fantasy points came from running than the other usual-suspect QBs:
2010 Fantasy QB top scorers
Quarterback Fantasy Points from rushing Total Fantasy Points %
Michael Vick 113 300 38%
Aaron Rodgers 53 292 18%
Tom Brady 5 289 2%
Peyton Manning 0 279 0%
Philip Rivers -5 270 -2%
Drew Brees -4 263 -2%
Josh Freeman 26 246 11%

Vick's rush-points output was and is, simply put, his primary advantage. Remove those 113 fantasy points that came from rushing, and he'd have finished 13th in fantasy points among QBs.

Of course, we have no desire to remove those rushing points. They're why you draft Vick. And this very high percentage of QB fantasy points gained from rushing is repeatable for him. Look at his entire NFL career:
Michael Vick: Career fantasy points by season
Season Games Started Fantasy Points from rushing Total Fantasy Points %
2010 11 113 300 38%
2009 1 18 24 75%
2006 16 102 248 41%
2005 15 78 200 39%
2004 15 86 197 44%
2003 4 27 58 47%
2002 15 109 266 41%

Amazingly, last year saw Vick accrue the smallest percentage of his fantasy points from rushing in his entire career! So clearly, this dude can repeat such a high ratio. But let's break down how Vick accrues those fantasy points from rushing. He's averaged 47.2 rush yards per game over his career, and that number was 56.3 in '10. So right off the top, it's fair to assume that in '11, you're getting between four and five extra fantasy points per game out of Vick's legs, which is nice, indeed. But it's still not enough to make him elite. Even if we add five extra fantasy points per game to Vick's passing-only fantasy totals in '10, he winds up fantasy's No. 7 QB last year.

No, the true difference last season was rushing touchdowns: Vick had nine in his breakout season (in only 12 games!), which contributed another 54 fantasy points and vaulted him above the rest of the pack. But how repeatable is that? Even in his run-heavy heyday in Atlanta, you couldn't count on a consistent season-to-season number of rushing TDs from Vick:

Season: Rush TDs
2010: 9
2009: 2
2006: 2
2005: 6
2004: 3
2003: 1
2002: 8
2001: 1

Let's throw out '09, '03 and '01, when Vick wasn't a full-time starter, and we still get an average of "only" 5.6 rush TDs per year. Give Vick six rushing TDs instead of nine last season, and he's fantasy's No. 3 QB. Give him five rushing TDs, and he's No. 4. But is that fair? After all, Vick is with a new offense in Philly, with lots of juicy weapons to distract defenses. Maybe Vick can set new consistent standards for rushing TDs by a quarterback?

Maybe. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Since the 16-game schedule came into effect in 1978, there have been only two seasons (other than Vick's '10 campaign) when a QB ran for nine TDs or more: Kordell Stewart ran for 11 in '97, and Daunte Culpepper ran for 10 in '02. In their respective follow-up seasons, they ran for two and four TDs, respectively. Let's cast a wider net. Before '10, there had been 22 seasons (since '78) when a QB rushed for six TDs or more. Here's how those TD-heavy seasons were followed up:
Most single-season rushing TDs by QBs, Since 1978
Season/Team Player Rush TDs Next Year Rush TDs
1997 Pit Kordell Stewart 11 2
2002 Min Daunte Culpepper 10 4
1980 Chi Vince Evans 8 3
1997 Ten Steve McNair 8 4
1999 Ten Steve McNair 8 0
2002 Atl Michael Vick 8 1
2000 Min Daunte Culpepper 7 5
2003 SF Jeff Garcia 7 2
1981 Det Eric Hipple 7 0
2000 Pit Kordell Stewart 7 5
1994 SF Steve Young 7 3
2006 Ten Vince Young 7 3
1988 Pit Bubby Brister 6 0
1988 Phi Randall Cunningham 6 4
1991 Den John Elway 6 2
2000 Phi Donovan McNabb 6 2
2002 Phi Donovan McNabb 6 3
1990 Det Rodney Peete 6 2
2005 Atl Michael Vick 6 2
2001 Car Chris Weinke 6 0
1998 SF Steve Young 6 0
1978 Sea Jim Zorn 6 2
Source: Stats, Inc.

No matter how you slice this data, it's alarming for Vick. Those QBs who had six TDs or more averaged 2.2 TDs in their follow-up campaigns. Those QBs who had seven TDs or more averaged 2.7. Those who had eight TDs or more averaged 2.3. Perhaps most damning of all: No QB who rushed for six TDs or more has ever followed up with more than five. If Vick rushes for "only" five TDs in '11, there's a strong chance he won't be the top QB in fantasy.
Vick As An Improved Passer: A Palpable Hit

Vick's obvious difference in '10 was his passing performance. As I mentioned earlier, in a season when he scored a (probably unrepeatable) nine TDs on the ground, he still set a personal best for percentage of fantasy points gained via the passing game. A 21-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio is excellent, as is an 8.1 yards-per-attempt average, the fourth-highest such mark in the NFL last year. Heck, Vick completed 62.6 percent of his throws; while that's not an elite number in general, Vick had never been better than 56.4 percent accurate in any single season of his career.

To what can we attribute these improvements? First and most obviously, in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy, Vick has better athletes supporting him with the Eagles than he ever had with the Falcons. That's reflected in the yards after the catch (YAC) numbers for Vick's receivers last year:
Player YAC/Rec
1 Jason Campbell 7.0
2 Jon Kitna 6.7
3 Philip Rivers 6.6
4 Alex Smith 6.5
5 Michael Vick 6.3
6 Donovan McNabb 6.2
7 Brett Favre 6.2
8 Tom Brady 6.2
9 Matt Cassel 6.1
10 Aaron Rodgers 6.0
Source: Stats, Inc.

In his entire Atlanta career, Vick never averaged higher than 5.5 YAC/Rec in a single season. But lest you think this was a case of a dink-and-dunk Philly attack that artificially boosted Vick's completion percentage by having him throw mostly short stuff, check out the NFL leaders in yards at the catch (Y@C) last year:
Player Y@C/Rec
1 Derek Anderson 7.8
2 Kerry Collins 7.6
3 Ben Roethlisberger 7.4
4 Kyle Orton 7.1
5 Eli Manning 7.0
6 Mark Sanchez 6.8
7 Jay Cutler 6.7
8 Michael Vick 6.7
9 Philip Rivers 6.6
10 Aaron Rodgers 6.6
Source: Stats, Inc.

No, on average Vick didn't fling it as far down the field in '10 as he did with the Falcons (his Y@C/Rec in Atlanta was routinely 7.5 or higher), but it would be a mistake to say all he did last year was dump off short passes. The truth is that when you look at the Eagles' passing offense compared to the league-average passing offense over the past several seasons, the Eagles usually come out significantly ahead. Since Vick is therefore ensconced in a dynamic passing system, it doesn't seem wise to automatically predict a drop-off for his passing efficiency.

But let's look closer at last year. It was a tale of two seasons for Vick. (That's Dickens, not Shakespeare, but you get the point.) His first five-plus games -- he was injured in the first quarter of Week 4 and didn't return until Week 9 -- were utterly spectacular. His final six games? Less so:
Michael Vick, 2010 season
Games Played Pass TD Rush TD INT FumL Yds/Pass Att Yds/Rush Att Comp %
Weeks
1-10 6 11 4 0 0 8.8 7.8 62.7%
Weeks 11-17 6 10 5 6 3 7.6 6.0 62.6%

The good news is that Vick's completion percentage didn't change. The bad news is his turnovers skyrocketed, and he was significantly less efficient on a per-play basis. What happened? Well, as they became believers in the Vick resurgence, opposing defenses changed their approach against the Eagles. Specifically, they started stacking the line of scrimmage with more defenders, and they blitzed more frequently:
Opposing Defenses, 2010
Weeks 1-10 % of attempts Weeks 11-17 % of attempts
Pass Attempts: 6 on D-line 10 7% 22 10%
Pass Attempts: 5 on D-line 38 25% 70 32%
Pass Attempts: 4 on D-line 93 61% 118 54%
Pass Attempts: < 4 on D-line 9 6% 5 2%
Pass Attempts: Other 3 2% 4 2%
Pass Attempts: Blitz 47 31% 80 37%
Source: Stats, Inc.

Anecdotally, one need only look at the snow-postponed, Tuesday-night game Philly hosted against the Vikings in Week 16, a meaningless game for Minnesota, but one which could've secured a playoff bye for the Eagles. In that contest, the Vikings blitzed on 18 of Vick's 43 attempts, sacked him six times and forced him to commit three turnovers. That Vick amassed 20 fantasy points that night is to his credit, and his boosters will claim if the man can submit his worst performance of the year and still get you 20-plus points, he's a no-brainer. But again, take away his rushing TD that night (and I submit that's going to happen a bunch in '11), and suddenly his fantasy output looks below average.

The fact of the matter is that when defenses blitzed Vick on plays when he threw the ball, his completion rate was 55.1 percent, 27th-best among qualifying QBs last year. When blitzed, he threw for only seven TDs and three INTs, though he did run it 30 times for 300 yards and four scores. This is my opinion creeping in, but I look at this data and think to myself: How in the world could any observer believe Vick's passing efficiency is going to be better this year? Defenses will have gone to school on Vick all summer. They're going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at him. I see a passing downturn here.
Vick As An Injury Risk: There's The Rub

To some extent, many of my earlier statistical arguments about Vick were a bit disingenuous. Sure, take away four or five rushing scores from his '10 stats and you're looking at the No. 4 fantasy QB, a player absolutely not worth selecting in the first round of fantasy drafts. But that presupposed Vick playing in only 12 games. If he'd played the full 16, and kept up his per-attempt averages, Vick would've crushed the QB field even without benefit of his fluky number of rushing TDs

Ah, but there's the rub. Vick has made it through a full season once in his eight pro seasons. In the six seasons during which he was mostly his team's starter (discounting '01 and '09), he averaged 13 games. Yes, that number is weighed down by a five-game season he had in '03 because of a broken leg, but I'd argue a scrambler is a better bet for the kind of open-field hits that lead to things like broken legs. He's a 6-foot, 31-year-old running QB who, according to ProFootballReference.com, has never once in his NFL career been sacked at a rate below the league average. And last season, he was among the most-sacked QBs in the league, in terms of sacks per pass attempt:

Highest sack pct., 2010 season
Jay Cutler 10.7%
Jimmy Clausen: 9.9%
Jason Campbell 9.1%
Michael Vick 8.4%
David Garrard: 8.3%
Ben Roethlisberger 7.6%
Joe Flacco: 7.6%
Donovan McNabb 7.3%
Derek Anderson 7.1%
Alex Smith 6.8%

And it isn't just sacks. According to NFL.com, the Eagles allowed 95 QB hits last season, tied with the 49ers for third-most in the NFL (the Jaguars had 111 and the Redskins had 110); by my calculations, Vick and David Garrard were easily the NFL's "most-hit" signal-callers last year, getting drilled on about one of every 4.5 pass plays. (By comparison, the average QB was hit on roughly one of 7.3 pass plays.) Add the bone-jarring tackles on many of Vick's 100 rush attempts, and you're talking about a massive number of hits. The fact that he was able to finish 23rd in pass attempts getting hit this much in a season when he wasn't the Week 1 starter speaks volumes about Vick's toughness. But the fact that he missed three full games early in the year because of a rib injury -- then was hobbled late with a bad quad and an injured ankle -- isn't a bit surprising.

Yes, Philly's O-line was banged up last season. The Eagles should get C Jamaal Jackson back from his triceps injury, and the line's left side, T Jason Peters and G Todd Herremans, are solid. But remember, Vick is left-handed, so his blind side is actually on the right side. And that's where it looks like Philly could have continued problems. RT Winston Justice battled a knee issue last year, and maybe he'll improve, but that's a big question mark. And the right guard spot is a mess, though if first-round draft pick Danny Watkins could slide in as a rookie, it would help a lot. But even during a subpar '10 season, this line was able to keep Kevin Kolb far cleaner than Vick (Kolb was hit at a rate of one every 9.1 pass attempts). The bottom line is simply that it's hard to keep a mobile guy like Vick completely clean.
Conclusions: To Be Or Not To Be?

Could everything work out again for Vick in '11? Yes. His talent is undeniable, and his weapons are elite. It's absolutely possible that we could all wake up on Jan. 2, 2012, and discover that Vick has once again led all QBs in fantasy points. But that feels more like a wish than a likelihood. Three major things can go wrong in Vick's quest for a repeat:

• If history is any indication, while Vick's rushing yards are likely to remain stable, his rushing TDs will go down, and go down dramatically.

• Opposing defenses will pore over the game film from Weeks 11 through 16 last year (Vick sat out Week 17) and bring extreme heat on Vick, forcing him to turn the ball over and take smaller chunks of yards per play.

• Vick will continue to get hit at an alarming rate, potentially leading to the kind of missed time that can derail a first-round fantasy pick.

I have every expectation that owning Vick will be spectacular fun some weeks. He's a big play waiting to happen, and he can win you fantasy games by himself. And listen, I'm not saying Vick will suddenly find himself in Matt Hasselbeck territory. I think he'll be a top-five fantasy QB. But to be worthy of a first-round fantasy pick -- and to be worthy of the first overall fantasy pick, a notion I've heard floated by some this summer -- a player must boast an elite combination of steadiness, upside and safety. I don't think Vick is there.

Not only that, but drafting any QB so early is an extremely dicey strategy. If the principles of value based drafting tell us anything, it's that the close-together bunching of QB fantasy points make signal-callers relatively indistinguishable from one another, meaning you don't have to reach in your draft to get one. Even after his spectacular '10 season, Vick finished only 13th in my VBD rankings among players at all positions. Granted, that happened with Vick playing in only 12 games; if he'd played the full year, he'd have wound up much higher. Still, I add all this up, and I'm led to one conclusion: Let someone else in your league reach for Michael Vick.

Chris harris espn