Need some advice about staking please

[Wally Balls]

My friend fancies himself a sharp. Due to being a degenerate blackjack player and escort connoisseur and generally just sucking really bad at bankroll management, he often finds himself without a decent sized roll to bet games, which I feel reasonably confident he could do profitably were somebody else to manage his bankroll for him.

So we came up with an agreement:

I'm going to loan him $2k, I'm going to put in $8k and we'll have a $10k roll. If we go bust he will owe me $2k. He will get 20% of all profits with half of that going to repay the $2k I loaned him until it is paid off and the other half going to him. Eventually he'll get the full 20%.

I'd like general thoughts on all of that. Whether that is a particularly good or bad deal for either of us and why.

--

Given the $10k roll how much would you suggest we bet per game? I've been tracking his bets for a month or two and I can already see that he varies his bet sizes in somewhat irrational ways. Betting more when losing and on his favorite team, for instance. He's also not a big fan of the Kelley Criterion and is unwilling to even entertain discussions about the actual probability his team will win, saying there is no way to know that blah blah.

So for all of these reasons I have decided it would be best to stick with a fixed unit size. He has suggested always betting to win $500. Today he has given me three games to bet and we'd be risking more than 25% of the bankroll just on those three games if I were to agree to betting to win $500 per game. I'm fairly confident it will be just a matter of time before the entire $10k is wiped out on a bad run if we do that.

Thoughts?

Can anybody suggest a better bet size that will provide a nice balance between risk of ruin and maximizing our profits? Or am I wrong and $500 is good?

FWIW he almost always bets favorites, often big favorites. So the lines are like -200+ quite often.

Thanks

[Extra Innings]

Welcome aboard Chi_Archie

[McCarthyFam]

never bet more that 2%-3% of bankroll. So therefore bet between $200 and $300 per bet

[Extra Innings]

Welcome aboard Cougar Bait

[McCarthyFam]

and big favorites aren't profitable. in the long run its not going to win. you could win 3 in a row and then lose 1 and youre pretty much back to where youre started

[warriorfan707]

and big favorites aren't profitable for me imo. in the long run. I havent been able to win. I was only able to win 3 in a row and then I lost 1 and I was back to where I started. Also I am a really big donkey for hitting 3 in a row then losing a -300. I am quite a donkey to be honest.

FYP

[Marigold HD]

A sharp capper doesn't bet -200 plus on most games.

[tony_come]

Just pound the whole 10k on one hand in bj

[Dirty Sanchez]

Never fukkin heard of ya pal

[Wally Balls]

never bet more that 2%-3% of bankroll. So therefore bet between $200 and $300 per bet

Thanks. What if the line is -200 does that mean betting $400-600?

[excel]

ROI isn't great enough...run...run fast(if he was good he wouldn't need you to stake him)

[Wally Balls]

if he was good he wouldn't need you to stake him

I don't agree with that. It is certainly possible for somebody to be good at capping but bad at managing their bankroll and as a result going bust quite often.

[iceminers26]

make $500 "to risk" as opposed to "to win" on favorites and "to win" $500 when playing underdogs

[Wally Balls]

Oh ya whats a good sample size to know if he can win or not?

Is 50 or 100 games anywhere close to enough or do you need 500-1,000+ or...?

[McCarthyFam]

follow jj gold's plays. solid capper

[kmarinouofm]

anyone laying -200 in baseball day in and day out .. is walking a fine line.. and eventually will get eaten alive.

[warriorfan707]

anyone laying -200 in baseball day in and day out .. is walking a fine line.. and eventually will get eaten alive.

Its definitely not for everyone

You gotta know when to lay the juice and when not to

Anyone who dismisses a game simply because the line is -200 or more is declaring themself a loser and will be way worse off than the people who know when to pick their spots and and lay the juice

[Tech N9ne]

Its definitely not for everyone

You gotta know when to lay the juice and when not to

Anyone who dismisses a game simply because the line is -200 or more is declaring themself a loser and will be way worse off than the people who know when to pick their spots and and lay the juice

[Cougar Bait]

Welcome aboard Cougar Bait

WTF? It's not me at the name though

Wally Balls is for sure someone from gamelive

[warriorfan707]

I'll let my posted record speak for itself

When you are done gathering aluminum and have accumulated 200$ dollars worth and can become an SBR Pro let us know

[dj_destroyer]

If you're serious about sports investing, I'd say 1/2 Kelly is the only way. I'm going to make the move to Kelly after baseball.

[Wally Balls]

WTF? It's not me at the name though

Wally Balls is for sure someone from gamelive

I don't know who you are or what gamelive is I'm just a huge huge Entourage fan

[Powderguy]

Just pound the whole 10k on one hand in bj

this

[Wally Balls]

Ok so we are probably going to risk $500 per game on favorites and to win $500 on dogs.

Is that sound bankroll management w/ a $10k roll? Or should we risk less?

[jkilla990]

why not just take your 8k, and bet yourself, im sure you would do as good or even better than your friend who bets "his team" and -200 favs and is broke.

[Wally Balls]

why not just take your 8k, and bet yourself, im sure you would do as good or even better than your friend who bets "his team" and -200 favs and is broke.

No way I would do better than him. I'm a huge sports betting noob.

[Wally Balls]

Guess the deal is off.

He was letting me bet his picks for free to prove he was a winner. We started negotiating this and while talking he gave me that days picks. I told him since we didn't have the details worked out it wouldn't start that day.

He went 4-0, but hasn't talked to me since

[Wally Balls]