Ryan Bader Theory

[v1y]

Also, I think this result is great for MMA bettors in general. It purpatuates the notion that "anything can happen in MMA." IMHO, large favorites are still habitually undervalued in this sport. Look at the lines compared to boxing, where you consistently see -800 and up. While MMA generally has less mismatches, I still find that there are many lines at -300 to -400 that should be -800 imo.

Do you have evidence for this? If you can show me the numbers, I'd love to see them.

I mean, let's look at this year alone.

grispi lost at -350ish to poirier and roop, gsot loses at -380 to siver, story loses at -500 to brenneman, bader loses at -500 to tito, rosholt "lost" at -700 to ott, sylvia lost to wagner at -400, fedor loses at -400 to silva.

How many big favourites in the -400 range won this year to offset that?

[keyboarding]

I don't think the strike hurt him, it stunned him, plus Ortiz was pushing into him. Once it went to the ground Bader fukked up leaving his head out like that. In fact, Ortiz let it go the first time and Bader still left his head out there so Ortiz locked it in on his second opportunity.

Ortiz had everything to lose, literally, so Bader should have expected him to come out swinging. Poor planning, plain and simple. Than again, Bader's last two fights are about as unimpressive as you're going to see, so I'm not sure why we're discussing him as if he was a legitimate fighter.

[dochall2u]

it was a shocking result for sure.Now after this I hope Chuck does not start thinking;maybe i can come back.

[bradnowell]

ufc nowadays sucks.. bellator is way better

[v1y]

ufc nowadays sucks.. bellator is way better

So I guess if the UFC put on more non-title fights and had less top 10 fighters you'd be happier?

The UFC holds the vast majority of the best fighters in the world, and has consistently solid matchmaking. They put on free shows all the time, and are now airing all the prelims for free (and usually half the prelims on a UFC show are bigger fights than most of what you see in Bellator).

[timmyboy34243]

Bellator - v - UFC, no contest for me, give me the UFC lineup day in and day out.........

[Jabstab]

Variance.

[Vaughany]

ufc nowadays sucks.. bellator is way better

[horsiehung]

makes sense to me... i would double check

[The HOFF]

90% of UFC Fighters are overrated.....

68% of statistics are made up.

[Chairib]

It was nothing like the Serra-GSP TKO. The strike that knocked Bader down didn't look powerful at all. If Bader was hurt it was likely more from the earlier strike. It looked to me that the knock down was more due Bader's poor foot positioning. Tito did a great job of staying composed and locking up the submission instead of trying to finish up with ground and pound.

You really can't figure out why the poster was citing the Serra/GSP I as an example here?

[bogbat]

You really can't figure out why the poster was citing the Serra/GSP I as an example here?

It was a big upset like Serra/GSP. Maybe I read into it the wrong way at the time. So go fuk yourself you condescending dangleberry.

[keyboarding]

Tito held that choke for a lot longer than he needed to.

[kmdubya]

Tito held that choke for a lot longer than he needed to.

It was less than 2 seconds too long. There have been way worse offenses than that.

I think it was the G-Sot fight where Dos was still dropping bombs on him with the ref between them.

[GoGoGadget]

You don't lay -500 on a fight or even a parlay unless its gsp vs hardy or Silva vs a can.

Bader free monies!!!

[Vaughany]

If not Bader vs Hamill then I'd like to see a Kingsbu rematch. KIngsbury has evolved a lot more than Bader since TUF

[sirchadwick1]

If not Bader vs Hamill then I'd like to see a Kingsbu rematch. KIngsbury has evolved a lot more than Bader since TUF

Yes... but his gas tank apparently hasn't. I bet on Kyle in his last fight... but will be hesitant next time b/c of this.

[koscheckbaby]

I suscribe to the theory that Bader just isn't that good, although others will disagree. The guy looked like a scared pussy against Bones Jones and fought like a scared pussy against Rogerio Noguiera. Just because you have wrestling credentials doesn't automatically mean you're a good fighter.

[cheeese]

Yes... but his gas tank apparently hasn't. I bet on Kyle in his last fight... but will be hesitant next time b/c of this.

He took a ton of hard body shots in that fight though. That and the pace of the fight could be a big reason he slowed down so much.

[Dirty Sanchez]

IMO it looked like Ryan Bader took a dive to save Tito's career and legacy.....did you see the guys Ortiz trained with? He didn't train with a legit camp....it stinks to high heaven. No way Bader comes out of a title fight and loses to Tito Ortiz...not buying it

[Marigold HD]

I'm still fuming from this guy cause of the weekend.....lol

[v1y]

IMO it looked like Ryan Bader took a dive to save Tito's career and legacy.....did you see the guys Ortiz trained with? He didn't train with a legit camp....it stinks to high heaven. No way Bader comes out of a title fight and loses to Tito Ortiz...not buying it

Well then, guess it all makes sense because Bader didn't come out of a title fight.

Have you actually follow Bader's and Ortiz' careers? In retrospect, this result wasn't that unlikely, even though it still arguably was a fluke.

[Vaughany]

IMO it looked like Ryan Bader took a dive to save Tito's career and legacy.....did you see the guys Ortiz trained with? He didn't train with a legit camp....it stinks to high heaven. No way Bader comes out of a title fight and loses to Tito Ortiz...not buying it

"One of SBR's Top 150"....retards?

[Kaladarus]

Tito's adding to his clothing brand. He is going to replace Osama with Bader on his weigh in shirt and continue to add to his clothing brand every fight.

[stefan084]

For all of those saying the punch 'wasnt strong enough' to knock him down, you clearly have never been hit in the head/face before
If it's on the button, youre going down

exactly--it seems like a lot of the mma posters on here have never actually been hit before. if you've done some boxing you know that tito's shot was plenty "strong enough" to drop someone

[Vrakas]

bader entered the cage as a loser and left the fight as a loser.useless tito got 450000 for the fight.plus sub of the night.

[sportsfanatic]

what were the odds for tito by sub?

[ufcmma36]

Tito won me a nice chunck of cash!!!!!!!

[Vaughany]

what were the odds for tito by sub?

Like 18/1 to 22/1 range

[sportsfanatic]

Like 18/1 to 22/1 range

wow

[suicidekings]

I suscribe to the theory that Bader just isn't that good, although others will disagree. The guy looked like a scared pussy against Bones Jones and fought like a scared pussy against Rogerio Noguiera. Just because you have wrestling credentials doesn't automatically mean you're a good fighter.

^^ This. People can discuss what might have been all they like as they attempt to justify laying -400 or more on a completely unproven commodity, but it really comes down to this point. Bader will never be a real contender in the UFC.