50 Points to the fist person to answer this question

[Rich Boy]

Today, the LA Dodgers scored in 6 straight innings against Minnesota.

They also scored more than 1 run in 5 straight innings.

1. What is the probability of scoring at least 1 run in 6 straight innings?

also

2. What is the probability of scoring at least 2 runs in 5 straight innings?

[chemicalbrother]

there's a couple more variables that need to be addressed...i suppose there's historical data out there somewhere that could tell you how often it's happened.

[tatommack]

i have no damm clue

[Rich Boy]

Any answer that is close to my own will get the points

[tatommack]

im reply must be worth 1 point ?

[dynamite140]

1. 1.1%

2. 0.53%

[oiler]

million to one

[EmpireMaker]

.5%
.005%

[Cuse0323]

My guess

1. .167%
2. .083% forgot you said 5 innings so .095%

[onlooker]

Not even going to try.

[Justin7]

Today, the LA Dodgers scored in 6 straight innings against Minnesota.

They also scored more than 1 run in 5 straight innings.

1. What is the probability of scoring at least 1 run in 6 straight innings?

also

2. What is the probability of scoring at least 2 runs in 5 straight innings?

It depends on the game total and moneyline. If it were 8 and Pick, the dodgers would have a projected runs of 4 (ignoring 9th inning weirdness). You would them to score at least 1 in 24% of all innings, and 2 or more in 6% of all innings. Scoring 1+ in each of a 6-inning sample would be about 0.24 ^6, or 0.019% of the time (or 1 50th of 1 percent). Scoring 2+ in each of a 5-inning sample would be 0.06 ^ 5, or 0.000078%.

If you project LAD to score 5 runs (e.g. with a game at Pick and a total of 10), the numbers go up:
Scoring in 1+ in each inning is about 30%, and 2+ is 7.5%. Scoring 1+ in each of 6 innings is about 0.3 ^ 6, or 0.073%. Scoring 2+ in each of 5 innings is about 0.075 ^ 5, or 0.00024%.

If you are considering a game longer than the sample, the numbers get somewhat more complicated. In a 9-inning game, a 6-inning streak could start in the 1-4th innings. There are some goofy combinatorics involved (i.e. a run scored in the first inning, with no run scored in the second inning precludes counting a second-inning streak). but if you multiply those numbers by 5 and 6 respectively, you'll at least get a ceiling.

[Rich Boy]

Only 1 person is close so far.

[ThaWoj]

give justin the points

[rem sleep]

My calculations came to

1.) 0.0156%
2.) 0.00731%

[in2thethickofit]

That it will happen 667 more times before the Cubs win another World Series.

[tofuman]

Los Angeles Dodgers filed for bankruptcy protection today

[Rich Boy]

It depends on the game total and moneyline. If it were 8 and Pick, the dodgers would have a projected runs of 4 (ignoring 9th inning weirdness). You would them to score at least 1 in 24% of all innings, and 2 or more in 6% of all innings. Scoring 1+ in each of a 6-inning sample would be about 0.24 ^6, or 0.019% of the time (or 1 50th of 1 percent). Scoring 2+ in each of a 5-inning sample would be 0.06 ^ 5, or 0.000078%.

If you project LAD to score 5 runs (e.g. with a game at Pick and a total of 10), the numbers go up:
Scoring in 1+ in each inning is about 30%, and 2+ is 7.5%. Scoring 1+ in each of 6 innings is about 0.3 ^ 6, or 0.073%. Scoring 2+ in each of 5 innings is about 0.075 ^ 5, or 0.00024%.

If you are considering a game longer than the sample, the numbers get somewhat more complicated. In a 9-inning game, a 6-inning streak could start in the 1-4th innings. There are some goofy combinatorics involved (i.e. a run scored in the first inning, with no run scored in the second inning precludes counting a second-inning streak). but if you multiply those numbers by 5 and 6 respectively, you'll at least get a ceiling.

Doesnt have to occur in a game situation, just any consecutive inning scenario.

[housecloud]

think this will be close...

1. 0.61%

2. 0.12 %

[Justin7]

Doesnt have to occur in a game situation, just any consecutive inning scenario.

Is your question: will this happen in a 6-inning sample? Or will it happen in a 9+ inning game? And do you want to account for the possibility of rain cancellations? Or the chance of a 15-inning game where both teams scored 6 innings in a row? If you ignore some scenarios, it becomes much more manageable... For example, I ignored bullpen vs starter ratings, and home-run rates vs a total. And that example i gave you was just for one team. But you can get close enough to price a prop with some juice.

[Rich Boy]

Is your question: will this happen in a 6-inning sample? Or will it happen in a 9+ inning game? And do you want to account for the possibility of rain cancellations? Or the chance of a 15-inning game where both teams scored 6 innings in a row? If you ignore some scenarios, it becomes much more manageable... For example, I ignored bullpen vs starter ratings, and home-run rates vs a total. And that example i gave you was just for one team. But you can get close enough to price a prop with some juice.

I meant for 1 team to score in 6 straight innings, doesnt have to be in the same game. So if the dodgers scored in the 7th, 8th and 9th of a game, then the next day scored in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd inning, it would qualify. Look at it from an inning to inning basis, forget they are even playing a game.

Also assume that the batter ability and pitcher ability are MLB averages

[Rich Boy]

Also Justin, where are you getting that the odds of scoring 2+ runs in an inning is roughly 6.5-7%

My database has it occurring much more often than that.

[Justin7]

I meant for 1 team to score in 6 straight innings, doesnt have to be in the same game. So if the dodgers scored in the 7th, 8th and 9th of a game, then the next day scored in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd inning, it would qualify. Look at it from an inning to inning basis, forget they are even playing a game.

Also assume that the batter ability and pitcher ability are MLB averages

Ok. Batter/pitcher for NL, or AL? ALs have higher totals... but the answer I gave you pretty much tells you the chances of 6 consecutive innings, starting on a given inning that you pick.

[Justin7]

Also Justin, where are you getting that the odds of scoring 2+ runs in an inning is roughly 6.5-7%

My database has it occurring much more often than that.

A live betting spreadsheet, derived from "The Book" (Tango/Lichtman/Dolphin)

[Rich Boy]

Your answer for 6 straight innings with a run is roughly close to mine, but for 2+ runs for 5 straight innings is off.

My database, which I have tracked by hand for the past 2 seasons gives me this probability.

Over 1.5 runs 14.4%
Under 1.5 runs 85.6%

Not sure where you are getting 7%

[ddesmara]

1 .0098%
2 .00049%

[Justin7]

Your answer for 6 straight innings with a run is roughly close to mine, but for 2+ runs for 5 straight innings is off.

My database, which I have tracked by hand for the past 2 seasons gives me this probability.

Over 1.5 runs 14.4%
Under 1.5 runs 85.6%

Not sure where you are getting 7%

Ok, I'm retarded. I misread my spreadsheet. 7.5 is the odds of exactly 2 runs. It's about 14.3% for 2+ with a team projected runs of 5.

.143 ^ 5 is 0.0060%.

[GOIRISH]

Over 1.5 runs 14.4%
Under 1.5 runs 85.6%

do i win?

[Cuse0323]

No fair, Justin knows math. I should get points for having to think, I hate thinking.

[Rich Boy]

Justin is the only one with a relatively close answer to mine

Empire maker is close, I suspect he missed a decimal point.

Anyways for your information my answers are as follows

1) 0.04606% or 1 in 2171

2) 0.005672% or 1 in 17628

[rake922]

The answer is infinity to both questions

I want the points....

There can be 0, 1, 2, 3,10000, 10000000, or a gazillion runs scored in an inning so with that understood your question is impossible to answer.. The players don't know how many runs are going to be scored and neither do you...

[valaub04]

Today, the LA Dodgers scored in 6 straight innings against Minnesota.

They also scored more than 1 run in 5 straight innings.

1. What is the probability of scoring at least 1 run in 6 straight innings?

also

2. What is the probability of scoring at least 2 runs in 5 straight innings?

100%. I'll take the whole 50 now or you can do 12 points for the next 5 days.

[BettingGeek]

altright, I'mma try

0.0000012%
0.0000005%

[Justin7]

Justin is the only one with a relatively close answer to mine

Empire maker is close, I suspect he missed a decimal point.

Anyways for your information my answers are as follows

1) 0.04606% or 1 in 2171

2) 0.005672% or 1 in 17628

50 points back at you for asking an interesting question, and doing your own work to call me out when I'm wrong.

[rake922]

Justin is the only one with a relatively close answer to mine

Empire maker is close, I suspect he missed a decimal point.

Anyways for your information my answers are as follows

1) 0.04606% or 1 in 2171

2) 0.005672% or 1 in 17628

where the hell did you get 2171 .. this is such a lie

Did you take every MLB game in the history of humanity? I don't think you did and even if you did that's still wrong since you would be comparing Ty cobb to Matt Kemp and they arent the same person playing against the same people


I want to know what the probability of scoring a run in an inning is. I want to see the math

[Rich Boy]

Rake, obviously I did not intend for this question to consider games played back in the early 1900's, where the odds of scoring 1 run was probably much higher than it is today. Justin and I came up with our respective answers by using historical databases, obviously his database is different than mine, but we both came up with answers that were relatively close. Thats all I was looking for.

Honestly I was just amazed to see the Dodgers score that many runs in consecutive innings, wanted to know the relative probability of that occuring and thought I would share it with the math oriented guys at SBR

I dont understand why you are upset.