It's been a fun run...

[opie1988]

Why 3% ROI per bet is not the same as a 3% annual return.

If you have an ROI of 3%, and make 1600 plays, you more quadruple your money with 1600 plays (if you risk 3% of your bank per play). Over 3 years, that is an annual yield of about 62% on your capital. If you have
bonuses, even better. I haven't found any CDs that do that, that will actually
pay.

I was simply using 3% ROI as a numerical example. Even at this figure,
it's a better number than just about any 12 month return available. Clearly yours is not without risk, but a good number regardless. Anything + is a good number nowadays.

Even is the new up.

[azimm11]

boooom goes the dynamite!

[Extra Innings]

Why 3% ROI per bet is not the same as a 3% annual return.

If you have an ROI of 3%, and make 1600 plays, you more quadruple your money with 1600 plays (if you risk 3% of your bank per play). Over 3 years, that is an annual yield of about 62% on your capital. If you have bonuses, even better. I haven't found any CDs that do that, that will actually pay.

Well then you need to state it differently. You stated, "After almost 1600 plays, it has shown an ROI of over 3%, which I consider a success." No way can the average poster ascertain a 62% annual return of investment from that information. Moreover, there are a lot of other issues to consider if we were to compare the two, again time invested as well as tax implications. You have to be very organized to get $3,000 to $5.000 down, especially considering the current state of affairs in the industry. I assume that would be the level for someone with a JD who could easily make 150 to 200 k processing bankruptcy claims or engaging in real estate law. You are more than likely a credit player, no way in hell am I going to leave 100k offshore. I just don't want people thinking they are going to make a living off this stuff...what you are purportedly doing requires twice the work of a 9-5 job. It requires a special breed of person IMO.

[Fishhead]

MATHDOTCOM stated it perfectly.........anyone working 9-5 not sharp..............unless they are.............


1. Making at least six figures, OR.......

2. Really love their job

3. Have time to kill

[jjgold]

post never said 3% ROI on each play

[nosniboR11]

For 3 years, I put a lot of my vanilla plays in the SBR spreadsheet. Mainly sides and totals where the market allowed at least 1k for a single click. My goal in doing this was to show that anyone could beat these mid-sized markets who 1. handicapped, and 2. did a minimal amount of line shopping. After almost 1600 plays, it has shown an ROI of over 3%, which I consider a success. If you focused on props, futures, derivatives, you can do much better than 3% (but with smaller limits). In 3 years, I'd guess I've also answered perhaps a thousand questions on sports betting via pm or email, which I have always tried to do promptly. I am no longer putting plays in the spreadsheet. In the past, chasers were likely to win going forward, even at slightly worse numbers. Changes in my betting arrangements mean that anyone chasing these numbers is no longer likely to win going forward. This makes the picks useless to followers. My time commitments have gone up also.. I'll still answer questions, but not provoke as many with posted plays. Best of luck.

shut up, nobody cares what you do

[BigDaddy]

your plays will be missed

[NYER5680]

Don't blame you justin, thanks for all of the great reading material you recommended.

[wantitall4moi]

its semantics really.

Depends on what you define ROI as, and what you define the investment part as.

1600 plays in 3 years is actually a very small number. And 3% RoI (at least how I determine it) is pretty aggressive.

How I approached it was to make as many bets as I could with the least amount of exposure and win enough of them as to outweigh losses, hedges, and buy backs. obviously scalping and arbitraging are the most simple examples of this, but in this day and age nearly impossible to do, at least at the amounts needed to outweigh simply betting the team you give the advantage to.

But in reality if youre going to do this for a living you are looking to put 5 million or so through the windows a year, and are looking to get back 2-2.5%, which is 100K to 125K a year. Obviously you arent really investing 5 million, you start out with a bankroll of around 100K and you roll over the winnings back into it and adjust your bet sizes as needed. But you also have to factor in how you 'pay' yourself as well. And how strict you will be to holding your bet size as it pertains to your bankroll. because if you start out with 100K, and are betting 3% of it per play (which IMO is AWAY too high) and you go 40-60 over 100 bets,which isnt unheard of, youre sitting on a bank roll (assuming you refused to lower bet size before then) of 29K. So over just 100 plays you've lost 71% of your bankroll.

This isnt the crux of the debate to be sure, but goes to how people have to look at RoI and expectations and how REALITY doesnt always jive with math or make believe expectations.

[cloudagh]

ROI from a gambling standpoint can be different than a yearly return on an investment.

[pavyracer]

Thank you Justin. Between tailing your spreadsheet and fading jjgold's spreadsheet I have made enough to retire in Guadeloupe.

[30K Millionaire]

Coming soon...Justin7.com

[sideloaded]

Looks like I was right Judie leaving too.

[Bluehorseshoe]

I think I've seen this before....




"I'm taking my spreadsheet...."

[playersonly69]

Not sure that it matters since I didnt know that you posted plays anyway.


There are PLENTY of other posters on this site to follow that are just as successful

[BeatTheJerk]

Justin is one of the few guys who actually make a steady profit doing this here thing.

[playersonly69]

Justin is one of the few guys who actually make a steady profit doing this here thing.

Including live poker tournaments and cash games, I have been making my living sportsbetting for the past 10 years. I support a family of 4.

It isnt Rocket Science

[Wrigley]

Good luck in your future endeavors

[dice]

Justin, you have provided valuable insight to the forum. Good luck!

[bettilimbroke999]

For 3 years, I put a lot of my vanilla plays in the SBR spreadsheet. Mainly sides and totals where the market allowed at least 1k for a single click. My goal in doing this was to show that anyone could beat these mid-sized markets who 1. handicapped, and 2. did a minimal amount of line shopping. After almost 1600 plays, it has shown an ROI of over 3%, which I consider a success. If you focused on props, futures, derivatives, you can do much better than 3% (but with smaller limits). In 3 years, I'd guess I've also answered perhaps a thousand questions on sports betting via pm or email, which I have always tried to do promptly.

I am no longer putting plays in the spreadsheet. In the past, chasers were likely to win going forward, even at slightly worse numbers. Changes in my betting arrangements mean that anyone chasing these numbers is no longer likely to win going forward. This makes the picks useless to followers. My time commitments have gone up also.. I'll still answer questions, but not provoke as many with posted plays.

Best of luck.

3 years with a 3% ROI is a success? That's not even a 1% interest rate, I mean true its better than 99% do but still less than 1% APR after an enormous amount of work handicapping and line shopping is a very minimal success

[Justin7]

3 years with a 3% ROI is a success? That's not even a 1% interest rate, I mean true its better than 99% do but still less than 1% APR after an enormous amount of work handicapping and line shopping is a very minimal success

With 8k posts, I thought you could perhaps read and do some simple math. Reread post 35.

[BigDaddy]

hahaha

good one justin

with some of these replies i can't blame you for not posting your plays anymore

some ungrateful people around here.

[30K Millionaire]

With a name like "Bet til I'm broke" you can't expect him to understand success

[pavyracer]

How about that multi-million dollar Mansion you built in South Bend Justin from the humongous amount of money you cashed out from these clueless books the last 5 years?

[Rod1010]

How about that multi-million dollar Mansion you built in South Bend Justin from the humongous amount of money you cashed out from these clueless books the last 5 years?

You sure like blowing Justinp

[bettilimbroke999]

With 8k posts, I thought you could perhaps read and do some simple math. Reread post 35.

I would've thought with 7k posts you'd know how to write. You should have said return per bet rather than return on investment, if I start with a 10k roll that's my investment, a 3% ROI would be 300 bucks, the investment is not a half a million dollars or whatever the bets add up to at the end of 3 years. Not my fault your wording was poor

[robertg]

with 8k posts, i thought you could perhaps read and do some simple math. Reread post 35.

i would actually think just the opposite, the more posts a person has the less likely they are to be able to read and do simple math.

[evo34]

"Changes in my betting arrangements mean that anyone chasing these numbers is no longer likely to win going forward."

What does this mean? You're moving the odds by more than 3% in every game you bet?

[durito]

it means whoever was giving him his plays stopped giving them to him

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Top 10 guy in forumville. My hat is off.

[dlew2k]

ok. sounds all good to me.

[Marigold HD]

I not aloud to gamble anymore. You left at a good time Justin.

[Inspirited]

I knew what justin7 meant by ROI. It's a common usage among sports-bettors. Also, notice that he said he put only his "vanilla" plays up on the SBR spreadsheet.

[evo34]

it means whoever was giving him his plays stopped giving them to him

Definitely not what he is implying. Not that I think he is actually moving the market 3% in men's sports...

[Inkwell77]

This dude seems good from all of his posts I have read.

Haters gonna hate