The Decision: NBA Finals Prop Shop

[EaglesPhan36]

After carefully weighing my options, I will be leaving my prop guarantees in this thread for the Finals. If you haven't seen my past prop guarantees, they are guarantees. If certain criteria are met, the bet is a winner. If the criteria are not bet, you lose. Every time, all the time. These are my talents, here my whine ... err, roar.

SERIES PROP: Jason Terry Points Average OVER 15 [-110] (SBR Book)
The JET has been solid in the playoffs and he's playing to keep his tattoo of the Larry O'Brien Trophy. At worse, this should push. JET has one solid game against Miami with 19 and still got 12 the other game in the regular season on a poor shooting night. Your guarantee for this prop is that if the Mavericks win at least three games in this series, Terry is going to have been a solid factor in doing so. If the Mavs lose this series with two wins or less, this bet loses. Guaranteed.

GAME 1 PROP: Chris Bosh Total Points OVER 18.5 [+100] (5Dimes)
Bosh in my mind is a tough match-up for Dallas and an X-factor in this series. If the Mavs guard him with Dirk, Bosh has the skill set to work him in the post and/or off the dribble to score. If they try to shut him down with Tyson Chandler, Dallas loses their shot blocking presence in the middle as Bosh will try and draw Chandler onto the perimeter. Bosh scored 41 points combined in the two regular season meetings and really came on last round against Chicago. Bosh needs 16 FG attempts and about six FT attempts and he's a go for beating this number. If he gets less in either category, he'll be hard pressed to score this many and your bet will lose. Guaranteed.

[EaglesPhan36]

Guarantee comes true. 19 points. Should have had 25 or more. F-ing horrible shooting. 5/18, bad finishing near the bucket. I'll take the lucky finish with the FT. 18 FGs. 12 FTs.

Terry did shit in the 2nd half and ended with 12. Okay start, but should have been much better.

[ephi408]

tailed on both... THANKS***

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 2 Prop: Tyson Chandler Total Rebounds Over 8.5 [-110]
Dallas is making one of their keys tonight to even up the battle on the glass. They allowed too many offensive rebounds & Chandler has all but said, it's his fault. "I need to control the paint. I've got to go out there tonight and make sure we get every rebound." Zone defense. Man-2-man, whatever. I think Chandler is indeed going to take it upon himself to go after every rebound. He had two solid games in the regular season vs. Miami with 9 & 17 rebounds respectively. Dallas was +4 & +3 in the regular season meetings, no coincidence that both were wins. Give you the guarantee tonight. Chandler plays 34 minutes without it being chopped up due to foul trouble and this wins. If he plays less than 34 minutes, your wager will lose.

[goofyre]

Sucks there is a 100 pt limit on these in sbr book. Was tryin to go all in on Lebron over 1.5 3pt made.

[VegasInsider]

Goodluck EP36! I'm on this prob as well, also on LeBron O6.5 FTM. I think he gets to the line more tonight than in Game 1. Can't see him launching as many threes tonight.

[Wiggums5]

I'm liking Dirk U10.5 AST+REB (+100) and possibly Lebron PTS +1 over Dirk PTS (-120) tonight

[EaglesPhan36]

Steering clear of Dirk props until we see how he plays with that splint personally. GL guys!

[Wiggums5]

yeah, I'm banking on him still being banged up tonight, good luck tonight though

[Goat Milk]

I like the Chandler prop. Only thing with Chandler is one of the keys to this series is getting him in foul trouble early. He's guarding Chris Bosh for this series so he has his hands full doing that and trying to protect the paint.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well, Chandler wasn't exclusively on Bosh when both were in the game. I think we'll see a little less of Chandler on Bosh. Think Dallas wants to keep TC as close to the bucket as possible for rebounding. When a match-up presents itself for him to stay down low, I think we see more of it in Game 2.

[The_Kid]

I'm going with Jason Terry OVER 18 Points + Assists tonight. I feel he shoots much better and somebody will have to step up with Dirk's finger injury.

[Dad]

Good luck EaglesPhan

[spargament]

yeah the rebounding effort, not even technique was the real issue outside of the incredibly obvious poor shooting from Dallas. Miami was outhustling, out working, out toughing the supposedly veteran mavs, so expect TC and Brenda to get big tonight. Marion needs to throw himself into the mix, and really bring the energy defensively against lebron even if it detracts from his offensive game..marion isn't gonna give you 25+ every night, but the triple J's in Dallas (Terry, Kidd, Barea) won't shoot as poorly every night.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm going with Jason Terry OVER 18 Points + Assists tonight. I feel he shoots much better and somebody will have to step up with Dirk's finger injury.

Would love JET to break out with a 20 point plus game tonight. Need him to get at least 16 or so to get the Series Prop back on track. Got my Shiner Blonde ready to ingest this evening for Game 2. CU boys later tonight.

[Pick'nParlays]

EP, I think the Tyson bet is contingent on Bosh's play. I like the bet but see limited value brotha. BOL

[goofyre]

Cashed that Lebron 3 Pters over 1.5 in the 1st quarter...

[EaglesPhan36]

Well JET got back on track and has his average up to 14 ppg now. Chandler missed out. Very frustrating as he mishandled at least three rebounds and was not as aggressive as I thought he would be. Oh well, 1-1 on Props and the Series Prop at least feeling okay as they go home now.

[The_Kid]

Well JET got back on track and has his average up to 14 ppg now. Chandler missed out. Very frustrating as he mishandled at least three rebounds and was not as aggressive as I thought he would be. Oh well, 1-1 on Props and the Series Prop at least feeling okay as they go home now.

I agree. With three games at home, that series prop looks good. Terry and the rest of the shooters should shoot a lot better than they did the first two games of this series.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 3 Prop: Total Three Pointers Made Over 14 [-125]
Miami continues to pace the attempts per game in this series and they've actually found some good rhythm to this point. Dallas should find the shooting at home a little more to their liking. Peja needs to start contributing here to this total. The guarantee for this one, 45 three point attempts and this should have a legit shot to hit. Anything less than 45 and this prop probably loses, guaranteed.

[EaglesPhan36]

16 threes. Cash that shit. Jason Terry sucked.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 4 Prop: Jason Terry Total Points Over 15.5 [-120]
It's put up or shut up time for JET. He's missing a lot of open looks and still managing to get close to 15 per game. Dirk pretty much said you got to step the F up JET. The guarantee for this one is another either/or proposition. If Terry makes two threes OR gets 16 shots, this will cash. If neither happens, your wager loses. Guaranteed.

[man_of_steel]

On this

[man_of_steel]

What else do you like? What do you think about lebron and Dirk? And boshs rebounding, 8.5?

[EaglesPhan36]

LeBron IMO is too hard to predict in this series. I'd side mostly for the under point total as Wade is probably going to continue to get the most looks and dominate Kidd or Stevenson or whomever. LeBron's rebound and assists fluctuate too much to figure out which way to go. Dirk Over Points obviously is always worth a shot because he has to score. Bosh is tough to call. He only had three last game. Don't see a huge edge to over/under on him as he seems to wind up around 8 or 9 a lot.

[man_of_steel]

Thanks for your opinion. Is there anything else that stand out to u?

[yisman]

Game 3 Prop: Total Three Pointers Made Over 14 [-125]
Miami continues to pace the attempts per game in this series and they've actually found some good rhythm to this point. Dallas should find the shooting at home a little more to their liking. Peja needs to start contributing here to this total. The guarantee for this one, 45 three point attempts and this should have a legit shot to hit. Anything less than 45 and this prop probably loses, guaranteed.

It probably loses, guaranteed?

[EaglesPhan36]

Unless they make 16 threes and don't need 45 shots to do it.


Wade Over 25.5 would be my 2nd choice if I played another one. Mavs have not figured out how to effectively defend him from getting to the rim.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 4 Prop #2: J.J. Barea Total Points + Assists Over 11 [-110]
Heard it through the grapevine here in DFW. Barea is starting over Stevenson tonight. Increased opportunities. Of course, he has to actually finish to help this ... but worth a play for sure.

[ANGRYBLACK]

Nice one. If he starts, he should get more than 8 Points and 4 assists...

[EaglesPhan36]

Barea prop is home in the 3rd Q. Terry needs seven.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gonna be a brutal beat on the Terry prop tonight. 15 pts. Missed three open Js here in the 4th that would have canned it. 15 FG attempts. 1 three made. Guarantee stands. Didn't meet the criteria, loser loser F-ing boozer.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dollars Bills yo. FTs at the end. Cash that mother fukker. Also gets JET to 15 ppg through four games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Finals Prop Shop: 4-1 [+2.90]

Game 5 pretty much thinking the Wade Pts Prop Over if it's anything less than 26 would be super. Maybe his rebounds prop too. See ya Thursday.

[EasyHustlin]

Nice work EaglesPhan! Cashed on Terry