Daniel Cabrera early against Lester...

[mofome]

Amazingly, Cabrera has had a lot of success this year and hes thrown a fastball almost 86% of the time. That its ridiculous for a starter. With that, his LD% against is only 11.8% which is better than even the great Joba who comes in for only an inning at a time.

I think im leaning towards the Os this afternoon.

[mofome]

lets dig into the game a bit more:

D Cab:
5.74 K/9
4.05 BB/9
HR/9 1.01
average against .210
BABIP .226
LOB% 78.6
LD% 11.8
GB% 56.5
FB% 31.7
IFFB% 11.8
HR/FB 11.8%
Fastball 85.9%
Slider 11.2%
Change 2.8%

Game logs - Strikes/Balls
4/2 Rays: 51/43
4/7 Mariners: 58/44
4/12 @Rays: 63/44
4/18 Yankees: 64/44
4/23 @Mariners: 65/30
4/28 @WSox: 55/47
5/3 @Angels: 64/38
5/8 @Royals: 76/40


D Cabs splits vs lefty/righty:

[mofome]

Lester:

5.12 K/9
4.76 BB/9
1.06 HR/9
.258 BA against
.277 BABIP
75.8% LOB%
19% LD
48.5% GB
32.5% FB
13.0% IFFB
9.6% HR/9
62.3% Fastball
19.6% Cutter
13.3% Curve
4.3% Change
337 balls
523 strikes
2 infield hits allowed

Lester has shown to give about about the same average to right handers and lefties.

[mofome]

Brian Roberts:

GB 45
FB 48
LD 27
BB% 11.9
K% 18.9
pitches seen 667
0-swing% 15.49%
Z-swing% 61.47%
Swing% 40.03%
O-contact% 71.74%
Z-Contact% 91.87%
Contat% 88.24%
Zone% 53.38%

[The HG]

Amazingly, Cabrera has had a lot of success this year and hes thrown a fastball almost 86% of the time. That its ridiculous for a starter. With that, his LD% against is only 11.8% which is better than even the great Joba who comes in for only an inning at a time.

I think im leaning towards the Os this afternoon.

Yeah Cabrera has been doing great. His fastball though has more movement than most, which is why it's ok if he throws it every time. In fact, it's been intentional for him to do that. It was his breaking stuff that got him into such enormous trouble in the past, he couldn't control it. The fact that he's not throwing breaking stuff anymore is why he is doing so well.

I agree, I'm high on Cabrera in general right now, not sure what I'll do for this game though, but I'll post my bets when I've fully vetted it.

[ryanXL977]

this is a tough tough game to call.

[mofome]

Yeah Cabrera has been doing great. His fastball though has more movement than most, which is why it's ok if he throws it every time. In fact, it's been intentional for him to do that. It was his breaking stuff that got him into such enormous trouble in the past, he couldn't control it. The fact that he's not throwing breaking stuff anymore is why he is doing so well.

I agree, I'm high on Cabrera in general right now, not sure what I'll do for this game though, but I'll post my bets when I've fully vetted it.

Yeah, Cabs movement is ridiculous, he also reached back for 100 in the 9th in his last outing. he's always had that, but they've tried to do so many different things with him that havent worked. last year they tried to get him throwing 92-94 with better location and that resulted in a ton of walks and getting his ass kicked in. the fb%:ld% ratio is amazing. his breaking ball is as good as there is, its sharp and cant be hit well if its on....but as you alluded to, he cant control it. when he tries to spot it, the thing turns into a HS breaking ball that gets hammered. Cab is 69, hes growing into himself and hopefully hes matured a bit on the mound. things seem to be clicking for him now, but i dont want to get over confident with him.

[willyback]

I originally had Baltimore to win this game outright until I saw the game's starting time. Early games are tircky. The manager might bench key players for rest. The pitchers' mechanics might be off. Too many unpredictable varibles to factor into the pick.

I'm not taking either side.

[mofome]

I originally had Baltimore to win this game outright until I saw the game's starting time. Early games are tircky. The manager might bench key players for rest. The pitchers' mechanics might be off. Too many unpredictable varibles to factor into the pick.

I'm not taking either side.

Advantage - Os. They have no key players.

[ryanXL977]

i think i will take the bosox
full ineup today

[pico]

on the O's as well.

[The HG]

I'm taking Baltimore for a little, also the 5-inning under 5.

If Cabrera is off, both are down the drain, but that's ok.

[mofome]

im on the os and under

balt allows an early run off an infield single

[mofome]

2 inf singles for ells.

[rjt721]

2 inf singles for ells.

It's almost unfair how fast this kid is. 23/23 SBs in his career, with only one I can recall (last week against the Tigers and Pudge) that the play has been even relatively close.

The comparison most often made is Grady Sizemore. I'm not sure I wouldn't take Ellsbury over Sizemore right now.

[ryanXL977]

but grady has 25 hr power
jacoby does not.
yet

[rjt721]

but grady has 25 hr power
jacoby does not.
yet

This is true. I think Sizemore would be best served as a No. 3 hitter in the future, while Ellsbury's more of a protypical leadoff guy.

[ryanXL977]

agreed.
kinda like crawford has done.
i love that guy

[mofome]

It's almost unfair how fast this kid is. 23/23 SBs in his career, with only one I can recall (last week against the Tigers and Pudge) that the play has been even relatively close.

The comparison most often made is Grady Sizemore. I'm not sure I wouldn't take Ellsbury over Sizemore right now.

hes a special talent, but he needs some more pop to be with sizemore, imo, unless hes going to be the next ichiro.

[madmaxx]

took over 9, didnt know lester would be cy young's clone today

[ryanXL977]

hahah
well no melvin more playing today

without that brooks robinson close, the orioles offense is nothing!!!

MORA RULES

[mofome]

took over 9, didnt know lester would be cy young's clone today

i could shut out the Os if i kept Markakis in the yard.

[madmaxx]

Varitek HR 2-0 BoSox

[mofome]

Varitek HR 2-0 BoSox

only the 2nd ball they've gotten off the ground today. cab is having some poor luck out there.

[treece]

Manny made a great catch. He catches the ball, bounces of the wall, gives a high five to the fan then throws the guy out at first for the double play. #1 web gem for sure.

[5 star bomb]

only the 2nd ball they've gotten off the ground today. cab is having some poor luck out there.

Boston has 8 hits in 5 innings. I wouldnt say bad luck but as always im cheerin for yur writeup.... WOW nice catch Markakis as im typing this

[mofome]

Boston has 8 hits in 5 innings. I wouldnt say bad luck but as always im cheerin for yur writeup.... WOW nice catch Markakis as im typing this

eh this wasnt really a write up, just getting some talks going. im on pace for a 1-1 which is better than my 0-2 last night. before that hr, boston had 5 hits and 2 were of the inf variety...since then they got to daniel a bit more.

[mofome]

3-0 this one is over. os cant score.

[5 star bomb]

damn 3-0 Lowell just went yard... shit

[5 star bomb]

Youk with a double.... I think its time to take out Cabrera.

[madmaxx]

7 run bottom 6th here we come!

[5 star bomb]

Here come the O's

[madmaxx]

3-2 lets keep it rollingggggggggggg

[mofome]

need the os to score here. cab got us through 7. nice effort from the big guy.

[Sportsgirl]

need the os to score here. cab got us through 7. nice effort from the big guy.

They better score or I'm punching you in the mouf.