Wednesday Afternoon Soccer Plays

**blackbeSSt** · 02-16-11, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by DroidHAM

im sunk!

then you bet too much

**Giroux** · 02-16-11, 04:10 PM

So many missed chances

**BIGDAY** · 02-16-11, 04:12 PM

**boondoggle** · 02-16-11, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

I like the under for Arsenal v Barcelona.
The line is inflated because of the attacking style of both teams but it is the 1st leg and I can see it being quite a tight game.

Fwiw, 57% of first leg games in the Champions League knockout stages go under 2.5 goals.

Thanks for posting. You saved me a lot of money. Keep up the good work.

**VegasInsider** · 02-16-11, 04:15 PM

FUKING LOSS!

Damnit!

Not looking like a very good afternoon

**VegasInsider** · 02-16-11, 04:16 PM

Barca totally dominating the last 20 minutes of play.

**VegasInsider** · 02-16-11, 04:19 PM

Gooooooal!

**DroidHAM** · 02-16-11, 04:19 PM

YES = Money saved! Now lets get another one Barcelona!

**BIGDAY** · 02-16-11, 04:19 PM

Losing days are no fun, but that makes a winning day that much better!

**Giroux** · 02-16-11, 04:19 PM

Gooooooaaaaalllll!!!!

**DroidHAM** · 02-16-11, 04:20 PM

Time to get greedy

**DroidHAM** · 02-16-11, 04:22 PM

1 more goal regardless of who it is would be huge

**BettingGeek** · 02-16-11, 04:23 PM

83rd minute
1-1

**DroidHAM** · 02-16-11, 04:24 PM

There we go, now a goal from Barcelona to win ALL 3 BETS?

**Giroux** · 02-16-11, 04:24 PM

GOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLL!!!! Yes!!!

**VegasInsider** · 02-16-11, 04:24 PM

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOAL

I mean...shit, Barca losing

**blackbeSSt** · 02-16-11, 04:26 PM

HOLY SHIT! i'll take a push in the 83rd minute!

**BIGDAY** · 02-16-11, 04:27 PM

WOW!!!!!!!!!

**DroidHAM** · 02-16-11, 04:28 PM

1 more goal plzzz barcelona

**DroidHAM** · 02-16-11, 04:31 PM

I knew I shoulda paid the -145 for O 2.5 instead of 3, lol

**blackbeSSt** · 02-16-11, 04:32 PM

paver i hope you played the arsenal +185

**Roadtrip635** · 02-16-11, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Roadtrip635

I parlayed the Barca/Arsenal O 2.5 (-142) with Inter/Fiorentina O2.5 (+109)
Inter/Fiorentina over was a winner, just need Barcelona/Arsenal to go over

WooHoo! Cash the parlay!

**VegasInsider** · 02-16-11, 04:33 PM

I'll take it considering how complacent Barca was when up 1-0

**Giroux** · 02-16-11, 04:34 PM

So close to getting that 4th, well earned push at least.

**VegasInsider** · 02-16-11, 04:37 PM

^^^^

**pavyracer** · 02-16-11, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by blackbeSSt

paver i hope you played the arsenal +185

I play all the plays I post. VegasInsider's reasoning was correct but he shouldn't have played the over since the Arsenal pk was at a much better odds. Sometimes you need to pick the value bet. Over 3 bets on first legs are not very common.

**VegasInsider** · 02-16-11, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I play all the plays I post. VegasInsider's reasoning was correct but he shouldn't have played the over since the Arsenal pk was at a much better odds. Sometimes you need to pick the value bet. Over 3 bets on first legs are not very common.

If my reasoning was correct, how was it not the proper play on the total? Correct reasoning and +EV usually equates to a play. I'll take a PUSH any day of the week, regardless if it's a bad beat or getting lucky. You wouldn't be back in the thread if Arsenal had lost, but I'd be back if this game stayed Under.

**FourLengthsClear** · 02-16-11, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

I like the under for Arsenal v Barcelona.
The line is inflated because of the attacking style of both teams but it is the 1st leg and I can see it being quite a tight game.

Fwiw, 57% of first leg games in the Champions League knockout stages go under 2.5 goals.

I only had 1 unit on the under so am kinda glad all you guys on the over got a push (i.e. didn't lose) out of the game.

**VegasInsider** · 02-16-11, 04:55 PM

Pavy, another thing...

Was the correct play laying -150ish for O2.5??

**Gemoka** · 02-16-11, 04:57 PM

Arsenal were 70s on betfair which was no bargain how they were playing 1-0 down

**pavyracer** · 02-16-11, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by VegasInsider

If my reasoning was correct, how was it not the proper play on the total? Correct reasoning and +EV usually equates to a play. I'll take a PUSH any day of the week, regardless if it's a bad beat or getting lucky. You wouldn't be back in the thread if Arsenal had lost, but I'd be back if this game stayed Under.

Originally Posted by VegasInsider
Yessir, I'm well aware of the first leg statistics. Arsenal will be forced to attack more than they'd like because they know they won't beat Barca on the road. Arsenal better plan on scoring 2 to win, because 1-1 draw isn't going to advance

Read your own post. You said Arsenal will be forced to attack and they need to score 2 goals to win because the draw 1-1 doesn't suit them. This means 2-1 which pushes the over 3 but cashes the Arsenal pk. So you have determined Arsenal will not lose but you liked the over meaning either a 2-2 or a 3-1 Arsenal victory would cash it.

Originally posted by VegasInsider

Pavy, another thing...

Was the correct play laying -150ish for O2.5??

No the correct play wasn't the over 2.5. The correct play was Arsenal pk +185 because of the massive odds for a home dog that doesn't lose home. Also Barcelona hasn't won on the road in CL with Guardiola as coach.

**VegasInsider** · 02-16-11, 05:04 PM

Pavy,

When I stated that I thought Arsenal would need to score 2 goals at home, I didn't think they were going to complete this task. I was merely stating what I thought they needed to do to win the first leg and put them in position to move forward. My feelings on the contest was a 3-1 Barcelona win, which I was wrong. Had I thought Arsenal would have walked away with a victory, I would have played them at +185ish.

I honestly didn't think Barcelona would only score one goal.

**Jonah** · 02-16-11, 05:04 PM

Glad they came back. Your reasoning did suggest going over with Arsenal tho, maybe. Others pointed it out earlier before game on and I thought they were spot on, was already on +3 tho.

**Jonah** · 02-16-11, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by VegasInsider

Pavy,

When I stated that I thought Arsenal would need to score 2 goals at home, I didn't think they were going to complete this task. I was merely stating what I thought they needed to do to win the first leg and put them in position to move forward. My feelings on the contest was a 3-1 Barcelona win, which I was wrong. Had I thought Arsenal would have walked away with a victory, I would have played them at +185ish.

I honestly didn't think Barcelona would only score one goal.

That makes perfect sense then.

**jjgold** · 02-16-11, 05:31 PM

Man you guys are soccer nuts

seeing almost as much posting action on soccer games as hoops

good stuff