think tank line movement threads

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  • CHUBNUT
    SBR Sharp
    • 06-30-09
    • 321

    #1
    think tank line movement threads
    all these threads debating line movement and the merits of opening and closing lines. Its all interesting stuff but I feel like the posters view is always set in an exact time period which is beneficial to his/hers opinion. The problem is that betting markets are dynamic and besides betting at slow books its complete randomness knowing where and how far a line will move. Its a basic human brain function to forget when your wrong and remember when you were right so maybe some are deluding themselves into believing they can predict the market.

    Everyone on the net now has a sports betting model which they guard at all costs the more sophisticated the more confusing the better. Pages and pages of mathematics and wording which would suggest a rocket launch to Mars rather than a sports event played by mostly under educated people. How do any of these models take into account the dynamics or circumstances? Surely if the model is some way adrift of the actual line then its redundant on recent knowledge terms and if it spits out the same number as the books then theres no apparent edge. I dont understand the lengths people go to to prove that the line thats set is wrong rather than accepting the books view and finding material reasons for betting one side or the other rather than leaving it all down to some number crunching exercise.

    No model has the capacity to beat the line on a regular basis better than your own brain. Conquer its bias of human nature and hereditary instincts and you have the tools to win at sports betting.
  • durito
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-03-06
    • 13173

    #2
    Go away.
    Comment
    • CHUBNUT
      SBR Sharp
      • 06-30-09
      • 321

      #3
      Originally posted by durito
      Go away.
      give me enough points to buy austin 7s book and i will.
      Comment
      • Peeig
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 02-06-08
        • 567

        #4
        Austin 7......that's gonna be my ghost account on 2+2
        Comment
        • CHUBNUT
          SBR Sharp
          • 06-30-09
          • 321

          #5
          Originally posted by CHUBNUT
          give me enough points to buy austin 7s book and i will.
          Thank you. markets are so tight any edge is good and now i have enough to get the book which will be the gateway to my dreams. as a man of my word i will go once the valued tome has been delivered and i wish you durito the best of betting in 2011.
          Comment
          • subs
            SBR MVP
            • 04-30-10
            • 1412

            #6
            this is too funny
            ad nauseum
            Comment
            • Pokerjoe
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 04-17-09
              • 704

              #7
              Durito just got "points given" post of the century.
              Comment
              • IrishTim
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 07-23-09
                • 983

                #8
                Originally posted by Pokerjoe
                Durito just got "points given" post of the century.
                durito was serious about wanting him to go away.
                Comment
                • hustla
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-20-09
                  • 1235

                  #9
                  Austin7
                  Comment
                  • CHUBNUT
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 06-30-09
                    • 321

                    #10
                    Originally posted by IrishTim
                    durito was serious about wanting him to go away.
                    hi tim, i'm sure i read somewhere that you think pre-season in mlb is more signifcant than last year. could you expand on that and throw a morsel to a man about to be cast into the desert if not a few SBR points wouldnt go amiss
                    Comment
                    • Extra Innings
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-26-10
                      • 15058

                      #11
                      Originally posted by CHUBNUT

                      Thank you. markets are so tight any edge is good and now i have enough to get the book which will be the gateway to my dreams. as a man of my word i will go once the valued tome has been delivered and i wish you durito the best of betting in 2011.
                      Good Luck with Austin's book.
                      Comment
                      • King Mayan
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 09-22-10
                        • 21326

                        #12
                        Something is very fishy around here!!
                        Comment
                        • wtf
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-22-08
                          • 12983

                          #13
                          op has a point

                          durito should consider suicide and make the world a little bit nicer
                          Comment
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