Is a Major Economic Downfall Coming Soon?

[ritehook]

I'd put the odds at -100.

Of a 1930's type crash to the skids.

Among cognizant Americans, there is a deep sense of impending disaster. They don't have to read a line online or in a magazine. They can smell it coming.

I'm thinking most on these boards have seen only the Good Times, and think the party is never-ending.

Severe "morning after" stuff very likely in the offing, gents.

[ritehook]

If you bought gold or other precious metals a few years ago you may have made a wise decision.

Gold, etc, is not a dynamic "investment." It's static - gold doesn't do anything, it just sits there.

But it never loses value. It keeps pace with inflation, even with hyperflation. Nowaday, the same amount of gold that will buy you a nice tailored-made suit or two-week Riviera vacation would have bought you exactly the same thing in 1933.

Gold is thus golden in chaotic times. While your paper money, stock certificate, MMs, CDs etc lose real value, the gold retains it's value. Ditto silver, platinum, etc to a lesser extent

[Iwinyourmoney]

major.......major fall comin mid summer. Gas hits $4+ a gallon and china gives up on our dollar, sells off its holdings in the dollar......then we collapse huge. China is a bigger investor in the dollar then the USA is. China controls our future. when they sell off our dollar, we are done for.

[ritehook]

What has brought the most productive nation the world has ever known to this piteous and perilous state?

Everyone has their own views. Corporate control of America is one reasonable answer - a corporation looks only at short-term profit and loss sheets. A nation must plan long-term if it is to responsibly serve its citizens.

The ongoing ThirdWorldization of America could be a contributing factor. I personally know and appreiciate the culture and people of Mexico, but that does not mean I want to see this country become a second Mexico.

As it will do if the illegal flood is not halted, and at least partialy reversed. For one, children of illegal immigrants should not get automatic citizenship if born here.

But mostly, tho, I think our economic Waterloo is due to two things: the extraordinary costly Iraq adventure, and the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve.

Many think the latter practice, the phony creation of money from nothing, was the prime cause of the 1929 stock market crash, and the subsequent history-changing depression.

And the major reason, IMO, for the meltdown?

Four letters: I - R - A - Q

The neocon bullshitt-ers who got us into this imbroglio told us it would cost no more than a mere 50 billion.

Well, so far it has cost about 3 trillion. This is according to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist.

That's not counting the hidden costs, the ones concealed in other parts of the budget.

Nor the future billions that caring for many years for wounded, maimed and otherwise damaged veterans of this misadventure will cost.

The '30s were called The Great Depression. We can call ours
The Baghdad Blowout.

[rugbybdyb]

I dont ever see anything like the 1930's ever happening again, since the run on banks etc was the major cause of the great depression however if you look at the years leading up to the 1930' (ie the "roaring 20's") it was it big time in the US economy where everyone was buying everything which is kind of similar to the buying of interent stuff and the real estate boom era that we just saw....So I do forsee a big depression on the horizon, in fact I think we are all already seeing the effects with the large increase in fuel prices and the large amount of forclosures etc....I just think that as dumb as people think americans are, the goverment and financial sectors have put so many stop gaps in place to keep the ecomony from hitting an all time low like we saw during the great depression(with the FDIC) Even if we see a run on banks the FDIC and federal requirements that state the banks have to keep a large percentage of the money on reserve will help curtail the large damage that this caused in the 30's ...... I think this will get worse before it gets better. We also have a much larger middle class that we did in the 30's and the money is dispearsed a lot more evenly across the classes which will also help curtail the damage that the depression will cause.....I think it will be bad, and people will struggle but again I dont think we will ever see anything like we did in the 30's, but who really knows....never say never right....

[rugbybdyb]

What has brought the most productive nation the world has ever known to this piteous and perilous state?

Everyone has their own views. Corporate control of America is one reasonable answer - a corporation looks only at short-term profit and loss sheets. A nation must plan long-term if it is to responsibly serve its citizens.

The ongoing ThirdWorldization of America could be a contributing factor. I personally know and appreiciate the culture and people of Mexico, but that does not mean I want to see this country become a second Mexico.

As it will do if the illegal flood is not halted, and at least partialy reversed. For one, children of illegal immigrants should not get automatic citizenship if born here.

But mostly, tho, I think our economic Waterloo is due to two things: the extraordinary costly Iraq adventure, and the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve.

Many think the latter practice, the phony creation of money from nothing, was the prime cause of the 1929 stock market crash, and the subsequent history-changing depression.

And the major reason, IMO, for the meltdown?

Four letters: I - R - A - Q

The neocon bullshitt-ers who got us into this imbroglio told us it would cost no more than a mere 50 billion.

Well, so far it has cost about 3 trillion. This is according to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist.

That's not counting the hidden costs, the ones concealed in other parts of the budget.

Nor the future billions that caring for many years for wounded, maimed and otherwise damaged veterans of this misadventure will cost.

The '30s were called The Great Depression. We can call ours
The Baghdad Blowout.

I agree that everyone has there own views etc...but if you look at history and the ecomony, wars actually help and boost the economy....We did not see a dip in the ecomomy from Vietnam or any other war in history that I can think of, Was the Great depression caused from a war? I think not, The great depression was not caused by the phoney creation of money(please study your economic history).....This is more of a political comment on the fact that you do not agree with the war rather than it actually effecting the economy in a negative fashion...You can quote cost of wars all you want but you must also counter that with the positive effects that is has on the economy to make it a valid argument

[ritehook]

major.......major fall comin mid summer. Gas hits $4+ a gallon and china gives up on our dollar, sells off its holdings in the dollar......then we collapse huge. China is a bigger investor in the dollar then the USA is. China controls our future. when they sell off our dollar, we are done for.

I agree. China owns a great part of the American debt.

But I doubt that China will call in its markers. Why would it want to destroy the major consumer of the shit it produces in its uncontrolled and filthy holes in the wall that it calls plants and factories?

(But let no one think corporate-controlled America is going to seriously crack down on dangerous and unbelievably shoddy goods flooding here from China. Do you kick your banker in the balls?)

The real immediate danger is that the oil producing nations will begin to call for payment in Euros, not in dollars. If that happens, and if you are not heavy into precious metals,or at least have your home paid for, locate a good source of wholesale apples.

That's what sucessful businessmen in the 1920s were doing in the early '30s, after they went belly-up in the Crash of '29. Selling apples on the streets from pushcarts.

Better yet, fortify that little vacation cottage you own in the mountains. And to see what's coming as you're holed up there, read a chapter a day of Gibbons' DECLINE AND FALL OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE.

Yes, Virginia, old Rome spent itself into bankruptcy. And "imperial" as they were, they were amateurs compared to the USA, with hundreds of military bases worldwide.

[ritehook]

I dont ever see anything like the 1930's ever happening again, since the run on banks etc was the major cause of the great depression however if you look at the years leading up to the 1930' (ie the "roaring 20's") it was it big time in the US economy where everyone was buying everything which is kind of similar to the buying of interent stuff and the real estate boom era that we just saw....So I do forsee a big depression on the horizon, in fact I think we are all already seeing the effects with the large increase in fuel prices and the large amount of forclosures etc....I just think that as dumb as people think americans are, the goverment and financial sectors have put so many stop gaps in place to keep the ecomony from hitting an all time low like we saw during the great depression(with the FDIC) Even if we see a run on banks the FDIC and federal requirements that state the banks have to keep a large percentage of the money on reserve will help curtail the large damage that this caused in the 30's ...... I think this will get worse before it gets better. We also have a much larger middle class that we did in the 30's and the money is dispearsed a lot more evenly across the classes which will also help curtail the damage that the depression will cause.....I think it will be bad, and people will struggle but again I dont think we will ever see anything like we did in the 30's, but who really knows....never say never right....

You make some points tht are worth considering. I would disagree with your opener that the run on the banks caused the '30s Depression.

Tht was merely a result. The cause seemed to be the over-inflation of the money-supply that resulted from the "easy money" policy of the Fed. (Amazingly, the Fed was created in 1912 precisely to avert bank panics - or at least that's what we were told.)

Once confidence in the soundness of the dollar had evaporated, there was a flight away from paper and into precious metals.

While I understand the point that there are more "safeguards" in the economy today, there are also greater dangers in many other areas.

One, the safeguards don't seem to be working. The Fed is again showing it has but one answer to recession: create money out of thin air, inflate the money supply. They should just let recession run its course, rather than to administer these quack "cures."

And while, yes, the fed insured bank accounts won't likely fail, they will not have anywhere near as much buying power as the savers had counted on. If you have a true rate of inflation of over 10% (which I personally belive is the true rate, not the govts massaged figures) and you're getting, say, 5.5% on a one year CD, you're slowing going bankrupt.

And mostly: the biggest safegaurd America had 70 years ago is that it was still a majority-dominted society, with a discipline and work ethic that evaporated a long time ago.

Now, we have many clashing cultures, many dissendent voices hollering to be heard, demanding bigger pieces of what is called "the pie." (The pie that was created by the ingenuity of the mostly dominant Anglo culture.)

These voices were muted in the 1930s. The population, tho angry, was still very disciplined.

No more.

Red lights flashing just arouind the bend.

[ritehook]

I agree that everyone has there own views etc...but if you look at history and the ecomony, wars actually help and boost the economy....We did not see a dip in the ecomomy from Vietnam or any other war in history that I can think of, Was the Great depression caused from a war? I think not, The great depression was not caused by the phoney creation of money(please study your economic history).....This is more of a political comment on the fact that you do not agree with the war rather than it actually effecting the economy in a negative fashion...You can quote cost of wars all you want but you must also counter that with the positive effects that is has on the economy to make it a valid argument

As noted, I did agree that depressions are caused by the "phoney creation of money."

And that during and after WWI and WW II there was a brightening of the general economy.

But if the creation of easy credit is a leading cause of severe economic fallout, what do you suppose has caused that?

The Fed has been merrily creating money for years now, to finance the disaster in Iraq, a branch office of Imperial America,Inc.

Those economic chickens are now coming home to roost.

But yes, if you are a very productive person, say one who owns your own sucessful business, and if you run into a temrpory and embarrassing financial situation, you can indeed kite a few checks or get some loans to get over the bad times.

And, yes, "pump-priming" the economy (make famous by ecomomist John Maynard Keynes) does seem to create jobs and prosperityl

BUT -- only if it is relatively short run, olnly if the nation has great human and natural resources. And only for a relatively short run.

We were in WWII for about 3 1/2 years. And, as noted, the working populaiton was still largely "native-born." And we still had the world's biggest and most dynamic industrial base. And we were nowhere near as dependent on foreign oil as we are now.

Much the same applied during and after Vietnam, tho in the early '70s the phrase "Nixon recession" was commonplace.

Now, our industrial base has been dramatically reduced; it's offshore. Our working population is increasingly Third World, with a emotional center of gravity outside this country.

And, the pump has been primed to the point where it is running dry.

The easy money policy of the Fed is largely to give the war-lovers the funds to continue with this five-years-and-still-ongoing war against the true national interest.

Three trillion dollars . . . let it roll off your tongue.

The pump is being drained dry. The water that's left is the paper savings of the thrifty. And that will likely go soon.

The great Christian mystic, Jacob Boehme, said that suffering was "the fleetest beast to bear one to perfection."

I have a feeling that within the lifetimes of most of us, America - what's left of it - will be the most Perfect Place on Earth.

Don't know if, disney-style, it will be the happiest.

[ritehook]

WWI and it's aftermath - the German hyper-inflation and the burdemson reparations the victors imposed upon the country, saw millions of hard working Germans wiped out and the subsequent rise of the Nazis.

I can see a military coup in America before 1920. Please do not tell me that the US has no tradtion of military rule. Earth-shaking and cataclysmic events have a way of breaking rhe most sacrosanct traditons. (Read any history of Rome.)

The Soviet Union collapsed due mainly to its imperial over-extension. Now in a mandatory shrink-wrap, and having jailed or exiled the thieving corporate raiders (called oligarchs) it is enjoying prosperous times.

The period of relative peace that the US enjoyed from the end of the Civil War to our entry into WWI, witnessed the greatest expansion of general prosperity in the history of the known world.

Wars without end are nation-killers. This is not an argument from any sentimental pacifism, but from a hard-headed "nationalism."

Even if short wars can be said to be "good" for the economy, long imperial wars, or being on an eternal war footing, have very negative results.

[rugbybdyb]

Rite hook.

I like reading your stuff man, although I don’t agree with all of it you are very intelligent and very well studied.....

I have a question you may know the answer to that I have thought about it my head many times......With betting being illegal in a majority of the United States, how do we base or decision on how the US economy is doing based on a system which is essentially a gamble in the stock market. I know there are a ton more economic indicators that tell us how our economy is doing but this is really just a gamble when you boil it down to its lowest level...Just always wondered that.

[Dark Horse]

We've been through a rough stretch since July, and given the circumstances are hanging in there fairly well. With 1929 tools, today's type of pressure would have caused a crash already.

I'll take a positive angle and mark mid-May as a point of economic upswing. Still, gasoline prices will reach $4.50 in California this year.

In a larger context I see the past years as centuries old darkness coming to the surface, like a disease that we're in the process of casting out. The ongoing crusades (waged under the flag of 'terrorism'), religious dogma and extremism, families of bankers in charge of our economies, fossil fuel and global warming, etc. This is one reason why I invested in solar stocks. We have to outspend the old order of motherf*ckers. Because they're filthy rich and aren't going to go quietly.

[ritehook]

Rite hook.

I like reading your stuff man, although I don’t agree with all of it you are very intelligent and very well studied.....

I have a question you may know the answer to that I have thought about it my head many times......With betting being illegal in a majority of the United States, how do we base or decision on how the US economy is doing based on a system which is essentially a gamble in the stock market. I know there are a ton more economic indicators that tell us how our economy is doing but this is really just a gamble when you boil it down to its lowest level...Just always wondered that.

Not quite sure I understand your question, but that may be because Morpheus is becoming insistent, that I turn in.

Nor do i agree with all you state, but at least you're asking the questions. Even if we're in the same boat as the rest of the schlemiels when the shit hits the fan, at least we'll know it's not granola we're tasting .....

Sure, the market is gamble. I have nio prob with that - I do have a prob with the taxpayers bailing out a the super rich who were former "Masters of the Universe," in their Lamborghinis and $4000 tailored suits.

Let's let free enterprise work. Those who maide bad investment should go down.

[ritehook]

America was, in a sense, founded on gambling.

Lotteries financed the American Revolution.

Jefferson's purchase (from Napoleon) of what later became a huge part of the USA was ridiculed at the time as a foolish gamble. Jefferson now has been shown by history to have been one of the greatest "sharps" of all time.

The purchase of Alaska from Russia was decried in the halls of
Congress, a "frozen wasteland" they called it. (How much do you think the Russians would pay not to revoke the sale!)

I have no oppositioon to free enterprise gambling. I do object to the control of govt by global corporations. That's not free enterprise - it's welfare for the wealthy.

It's like betting all football and basketball season with a bookie who allows you to past post. Or one who pays you your winnings but forgives your losses.

Nice work if you can get it. And some have gotten it. Those of us who haven't will, of course, pay for their "good fortune."

[Iwinyourmoney]

Its all part of the plan for the North American Union. Its falling into place perfectly. Do the research. China will call in the markers very soon.

[BrentCrude]

Are standard of living has been getting worse in slow doses to a point of being bad.

I will leave out of this post my usual whipping boys like Woodrow Wilson,FDR,The Federal Reserve,LBJ and every president that has increasingly elevated the new world order and socialism into out life giving us a Keynesian economy.That said and done,here is what it has resulted in giving us a much worse real standard of living than any generations of past went through.I shouldn't even say it's getting worse by generations because it's getting worse by tiny stretches of time by two or 3 year periods.

Everyone is borrowed to the hilt.You can't open your e-mail or turn the tv on without seeing loan shark commercials,quick fix credit card crunch remedies,personal injury lawyers drumming up business,bogus vocational schools saying you can go to school getting government loans to become a poddy diaper pad changer at an entitlement home.etc.etc.etc.

Tell me the standard of living is good when even well off people have to fear for their lives that they are driving around even in the good part of town where their lives are at risk.

Tell me it's good when both the mom and dad both have to work to support a household to pay taxes,the inflated price of homes and to pay debt on toys that are a substitute in their lives for love and real financial security etc.Then these moron parents save and take loans out to put their kids through these liberal hell holes they call colleges where their once decent kids turn into freakazoids with worthless fluff degrees.What about the divorse rate.When you have tough financial times in marriages where you both are working and see each other for an hour a day,it's convenient to think there is a better and more fun screw toy around so the divorce rate is through the roof.

Then you have to pay close to $1000 a month to put your tykes in day care at 2 where you never know if some sex perv is mollesting them or some 3rd world illegal kid with TB is infecting them.

What about long term economic stability?There is none.You can own a Krispy Creme one day that's going gangbusters and the next day the government will tell people that they will die from eating carbs and there goes your business.Either that or else they will give a subsidy to a donut shop that sets up next to you and runs you out of business.

Where I live I know of two people that spent a lot of their savings on getting into the bar business just a couple years ago.They were doing good with the biz and then the state lowers the DUI limit to .08 and bans smoking and your business goes belly up overnight.

Then what about having cameras on every corner of your neighborhood.I live in a podunk town where everyone either knows everyone or is related in some fashion and there are two cameras right in the neighborhood.If you are a 70 year old that smokes and you buy your cigs at certain stores here in Minnesota,the feds have a test program where you have to scan your drivers license to buy them.

Then what about identity theft from people half a world away.Did your parents have to worry about that stuff?Hell no.

I can come up with 1000's of these things where life has gotten progressively worse and it's all because the democrats starting with Wilson gave us the new world order socialism and every president since then has had to give us more of the nanny state we demand.

When your economy can no longer produce any real goods,you have to pay people entitlements not to work or give them jobs directly for the government or indirectly in constructing public works projects,medicine or defense production.Look at how medical bills have skyrocketed due to the fact your socialist Hillary types have turned everyone into hypochondriacs.

[BrentCrude]

Yikes,was in a hurry and goofed on my post a number of times as usual.I can't edit either with this damn Netscape software.

I wanted to add that in my grandparents generation you had Bonny and Clyde and with my parents generation you had Charles Starkweather and Charles Manson who all became crime legends.Hell,everyday in this country people do the stuff these people did to become notorious criminals and you don't even hear about them.

[Scorpion]

Well, so far it has cost about 3 trillion. This is according to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist.

That's not counting the hidden costs, the ones concealed in other parts of the budget.

Nor the future billions that caring for many years for wounded, maimed and otherwise damaged veterans of this misadventure will cost.

The '30s were called The Great Depression. We can call ours
The Baghdad Blowout.

W said the Iraqi oil will pay for it!

[eyeball]

I believe it gets WORSE than the 30's
Iraq War
Secondly the welfare system were I live in Texas the state spends 47% of its budget on Medicaid. That is matched by federal funds.
We as a country can't afford all of this and we keep printing up paper money.. as Ron Paul said.
The country is bankrupt and eventually the price will be paid....VERY SHORTLY i think this summer

[willyback]

The price for everyday goods and services will skyrocket - just means that Americans have to cut back on unnecessary expenses. We'll probably see some major retail chains go under. Americans won't be able to travel abroad (because the currency is too weak). European and Asian tourists/investors will treat the US like Wal-Mart (Cheap, Cheap, Cheap).

[Tchocky]

I've been saying we're in a recession since last year. I got laid off last month so I'm hurting. Growth is anemic, inflation is a serious problem and more layoffs are looming ahead.

[thegreatdiatchi]

I've been saying we're in a recession since last year. I got laid off last month so I'm hurting. Growth is anemic, inflation is a serious problem and more layoffs are looming ahead.

We have been in a recession since 2002. It is just that the recession has went from mild to large and right now we are on the large part of it. I don't see us slipping much further because even this administration knows that people are at wits end with this recession crap and a replay of the 1930's disaster might be the final straw that would finally drive the people into reclaiming control of this country.

[Dazzez]

The ongoing ThirdWorldization of America could be a contributing factor. I personally know and appreiciate the culture and people of Mexico, but that does not mean I want to see this country become a second Mexico.

As it will do if the illegal flood is not halted, and at least partialy reversed. For one, children of illegal immigrants should not get automatic citizenship if born here.

Now, we have many clashing cultures, many dissendent voices hollering to be heard, demanding bigger pieces of what is called "the pie." (The pie that was created by the ingenuity of the mostly dominant Anglo culture.)

So not only are you borderline illiterate, but you're also a xenophobic moron with no real understanding of economics.

Good job, Dimwit. Brilliantly conceived.

[ritehook]

W said the Iraqi oil will pay for it. - scorpion

LOL. And that the country goes from a Thomas Jefferson to a GW Bush is sign of Progress!

DH, ok, I'll wait to mid-May to see our problems diminish. Doubt that long-term this will happen, until the "MIC" (military-industrial complex) that Ike warned us of, with the added explosive of neocon ideology, is brought under control. But that would take a virtual revolution. And Americans are not a revolutionary people. But they are individualists, even under the mass media pressures. That independence is the one best hope, the orneryness.

I concur with brentcrude that the US standard of living has long been in a downward spriral, say from around 1970 (the end years of the wasteful Vietnam adventure).

But really, only for those stratified in the mddle classes, including lower mid and upper mid.

The hopelessly poor, as usual, have the same cluelessless they've always had, and don't know much of one "standard of living" from another.

But the wealthy -- well, bro, that's another story! A horse of such a different color that it looks like an psychedelic light show!

Companies that make corporate jets can't keep up with orders. Ditto for luxury yachts and high-end luxury autos.
And while the RE market has been grievously wounded, their has been few declines in the kinds of properties that itnerest wealthy movie stars and corporate super-heroes.

We're getting just like Mexico, in more ways than one. A thinning middle class, and the Masters of the Universe on top, the rest of us slaving away in the underground catacombs.

Welcome, citizen, to the New World Order!

[JBC77]

No crash like early in the 19th century. Not happening. Sounds like people are watching too much CNBC.

Money is slowly coming off the sidelines. Look historically at the Markets......it's not a perfectly straight line up boys. Relax, grab your balls and buy some stock.

[ritehook]

Iwinyourmoney,

No, I still can't see China calling in the debt.

Their economic well-being depends on our well-being.
We are the main customers of their foul and poorly-made goods.

Some years ago Brazil made some very poor (and likely very corrupt) loans from international lenders, like the World Banki.
They got in so deep, really deep,that they were in virtual default.

At the time, one Brazilian politician said he wasn't worried. "If you owe your bank a million dollars, you're in trouble," he said. "But if y9u owe your bank 100 billion dollars, they're in trouble."

The international lenders ended up "forgiving" part of Brazil's debt, and worked out easy repay terms from the rest. China is in the same position. They can't call in their markers because they'll destroy us, and it will cost them more than to coast and let that debt be repaid in inflated fiat money, worth less than th original amount in real terms.

[ritehook]

So not only are you borderline illiterate, but you're also a xenophobic moron with no real understanding of economics.

Good job, Dimwit. Brilliantly conceived.

And your analysis is . . . . .?

Your insults are pedestrian - hope you can make a comeback with a super-sharp diagnosis.

Or are things, in your view, just fine & dandy?

[ritehook]

No crash like early in the 19th century. Not happening. Sounds like people are watching too much CNBC.

Money is slowly coming off the sidelines. Look historically at the Markets......it's not a perfectly straight line up boys. Relax, grab your balls and buy some stock.

There are different scenarios.

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire may not come as a sharp break, a la 1929, but it has been on a long downward slide. And as brentcrude correctly said, the living stanrdards (for all but the super-rich )have been declining in real terms for decades.

9/11 was just a punctuation mark to the de facto death sentence this land has received from the hand of History.

It was the same in Rome, at abouit he time of the birth of Christ. A barbarian whom we know only as Arminius, a Roman citizen by dint of having servied as a Roman soldier, massed his fellow bearskin-wearers at the Teutoberger Forest, and ambushed and destroyed five Roman legions.

The shock in Rome was very likely akin to the emormous shock Americans felt when they realized their homeland had been breached by enemies that despised them.

Armies of Imperial Rome massacred by stinking greased-up barbarians!!!??

Five cream-of-the-crop Roman legions. And one cocky skyscraper, plus 3000 citizens. Both destroyed by illiterate barbarians.

Both Armainius and the Islamics were eventually defeated (the latter in Iraq and Afghanistan).

Three centuries later the blood brothrs of Arminius sacked and destroyed Rome itself, and later took control of her shrunken empire.

Techmology has given History's velocity a much quicker spin.
We won't have to wait 3 centiuries for the outcome of he current world-historical drama, the contest between the cocky masters of the universe, with all their weapons and computers, and the Koran-reading ragheads watching and waiting, watching and waiting . , ,

[Scorpion]

Only Ron Paul knows economy!

[ritehook]

Only Ron Paul knows economy!

He was the sole candidate who spoke the truth. Unfortunately, he had no dynamic, a too laid-back personality, to even make a solid showing in the primaries. And he's too loyal a Republican. He should do right by those who supported them and make an independent bid.

It's not about winning an election, but planting seeds. All that the fraudulent GOP candidates wanted from Paul is his promise not to mount an independent campagin.

It is to America's misfotune that Rep Paul gave them that assurance.

[curious]

What has brought the most productive nation the world has ever known to this piteous and perilous state?

Everyone has their own views. Corporate control of America is one reasonable answer - a corporation looks only at short-term profit and loss sheets. A nation must plan long-term if it is to responsibly serve its citizens.

The ongoing ThirdWorldization of America could be a contributing factor. I personally know and appreiciate the culture and people of Mexico, but that does not mean I want to see this country become a second Mexico.

As it will do if the illegal flood is not halted, and at least partialy reversed. For one, children of illegal immigrants should not get automatic citizenship if born here.

But mostly, tho, I think our economic Waterloo is due to two things: the extraordinary costly Iraq adventure, and the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve.

Many think the latter practice, the phony creation of money from nothing, was the prime cause of the 1929 stock market crash, and the subsequent history-changing depression.

And the major reason, IMO, for the meltdown?

Four letters: I - R - A - Q

The neocon bullshitt-ers who got us into this imbroglio told us it would cost no more than a mere 50 billion.

Well, so far it has cost about 3 trillion. This is according to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist.

That's not counting the hidden costs, the ones concealed in other parts of the budget.

Nor the future billions that caring for many years for wounded, maimed and otherwise damaged veterans of this misadventure will cost.

The '30s were called The Great Depression. We can call ours
The Baghdad Blowout.

You can thank your Congress critters for doing this to us. Here is how they did:
1. ZERO financial responsibility. Overall tax rates higher than the economy can support + budget deficits that cannot be supported + monetizing the debt (that means printing every larger amounts of money without anything to back it up).
2. Creating a business climate which makes it far more profitable for manufacturers to ship manufacturing jobs overseas. This destroyed the urban manufacturing base and the manufacturing base in the rural south. Go to any downtown area in the rural south and you will see shuttered mills.
3. Creating a permanent destitute class which relies on government assistance from cradle to grave. This class was created on purpose by the DemoCong's social engineering programs. The destruction of the urban manufacturing base went a long way to creating this class.
4. The misuse of H1 and H2 visas to bring almost 1 million professional workers to the United States to take jobs that Americans could be filling. These workers come from India and Pakistan mostly. H1 and H2 visas are supposed to be used only when Americans cannot be found to do the same work. The large corporations who abuse these visas don't even have to pretend anymore to be looking for Americans. Most of these jobs are not that "technical", 6 months to 1 year of technical school training would qualify someone for a majority of these jobs. The reason that big corporations do this is these Indians and Pakistanis are willing to work for wages that are ridiculously low.
5. Energy policy - refusal to create one. The DemoCong's energy policy is "punish the oil companies so that they cannot supply oil to America". The United States has massive untapped oil reserves. The DemoCong every year renew a moratorium on exploration or drilling within federal land or anywhere offshore. They are purposely keeping the supply of oil down.

The corn to ethanol "energy program" is a total disaster. It takes far more energy to produce ethanol from corn that you get in return using ethanol to fuel an internal destruction engine. This program only exists due to subsidies and mandates that all gasoline use 10% ethanol. This program is a financial disaster because 1) drives up the cost of corn, 2) higher feed prices drive up the cost of meat and dairy products, 3) ethanol costs more than gasoline so adding 10% ethanol to gasoline drives up the cost of the gasoline, 4) adding ethanol to gasoline reqjuires the refineries to add a new very expensive process to their process of making gasoline, this makes gasoline cost more, 5) corn based ethanol is a MPG disaster, so gasoline with ethanol added to it gets lower gas mileage meaning the consumer has to fillup more often.

In other words the corn to ethanol program is a subsidy for 3 giant agribusinesses. The argument that this program "Helps" the farmers is nonsense because these 3 companies get 90% of the subsidies.

Brazil converted their economy to ethanol, and the DemoCong propagandists use this story. What they don't tell you is that Brazil makes ethanol from SUGAR CANE, not corn. Ethanol made from Sugar Cane is 10 times more effecient in terms of the number of BTUh you get at the vehicle's engine for each BTUh of energy put in to create the ethanol. What you probably don't know is that growing sugar cane in this country without a permit from the federal government is a FELONY. Guess how you get the permit? You give campaign contributions to two powerful senators who sit on the committee that allocate the permits. No, I am not making this up. Importation of ethanol made from sugar cane is a FELONY. This could easily be changed, the US could switch to a sugar cane based ethanol energy policy in a few months. That will never happen.

6. Giving most favored nation status to countries which are known to use slave labor like China. China got a lot for the cash they gave to Clinton when he was in office.

7. Allowing companies like Walmart to force US manufacturers t move overseas or be put out of business. When old man Walton was alive "Made in America" was Walmart's slogan. Not anymore. Personally I think the board of directors of Walmart should be tried for treason.

8. Setting up this inhumane system where a person can be an "illegal" due to his national origin. The problem with immigration isn't the immigrants. It is the fact that they are branded as "illegal" and then become part of an underground which can easily be exploited by employers. This depresses wages. The DemoCong like to say "but they do jobs Americans won't do". What they don't tell you is that because of their illegal status they are forced to do jobs for such low wages that Americans cannot do those jobs. What the DemoCong should say is that "they do jobs that Americans won't do for those wages". This could easily be fixed two ways. Give anyone who lives in the United States who does not have proper documentation a special legal status, but make it clear that they are not on path to citizenship and never can be as long as they stay here on this special legal status. This will eliminate the underground which can be exploited, because with legal rights these people will be able to work and if an employer tries to exploit them they will be able to seek redress of grievances from the federal labor department and other agencies. This special legal status would solve a whole host of problems.

The second thing that needs to be done is to build a Hadrian's wall on the Mexico-United States border and completely eliminate ILLEGAL traffic across the border while making LEGAL traffic across the border easier.

These two things could easily be done, but won't be because the DemoCong have no desire to fix this problem. They are purposely creating a new permanently destitute class because they believe that permanently destitute people will always vote the DemoCong ticket.

Another thing that the DemoCong allow big corporations like Walmart to get away with is the hiring of illegal workers through "contractors". The big corporations know this is being done but when the "contractors" get caught hiring illegals the big corporation says "we didn't know the contractor was doing that". Nonsense. They should be punished just the same. And the punishment shouldn't be a slap on the wrist. First offense should be a huge fine, second offense should be slapping the CEO and the board of directors in jail. Not a white collar country club. A real hell hole. Third offense should be the forfeiture of all stock owned by the CEO and board of directors. Fourth offense should be the seizure of the company by the federal government and selling it to the employees. Or execution by firing squad, I can't decide which.

All the root causes of the current economic crisis could be fixed but the Congress critters have zero incentive to fix them.

The voters in this country need to institute term limits at the ballot box.

[curious]

There are different scenarios.

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire may not come as a sharp break, a la 1929, but it has been on a long downward slide. And as brentcrude correctly said, the living stanrdards (for all but the super-rich )have been declining in real terms for decades.

9/11 was just a punctuation mark to the de facto death sentence this land has received from the hand of History.

It was the same in Rome, at abouit he time of the birth of Christ. A barbarian whom we know only as Arminius, a Roman citizen by dint of having servied as a Roman soldier, massed his fellow bearskin-wearers at the Teutoberger Forest, and ambushed and destroyed five Roman legions.

The shock in Rome was very likely akin to the emormous shock Americans felt when they realized their homeland had been breached by enemies that despised them.

Armies of Imperial Rome massacred by stinking greased-up barbarians!!!??

Five cream-of-the-crop Roman legions. And one cocky skyscraper, plus 3000 citizens. Both destroyed by illiterate barbarians.

Both Armainius and the Islamics were eventually defeated (the latter in Iraq and Afghanistan).

Three centuries later the blood brothrs of Arminius sacked and destroyed Rome itself, and later took control of her shrunken empire.

Techmology has given History's velocity a much quicker spin.
We won't have to wait 3 centiuries for the outcome of he current world-historical drama, the contest between the cocky masters of the universe, with all their weapons and computers, and the Koran-reading ragheads watching and waiting, watching and waiting . , ,

Actually 9/11 was orchestrated to make a huge amount of money by buying puts (options which make money if a stock goes down) on a wide array of companies which would suffer as the result of a 9/11 type attack. These options were mostly purchased on the Tokyo stock exchange. The amount of profit was in the billions. This is an established fact. There are three plausible scenarios:
1. The entire purpose of 9/11 was to make money. The people really behind the deed duped some idiots into believing that they were advancing "the cause".
2. The Islamic nutjobs who are talking world jihad actually did carry out the act in the name of their beliefs and had the idea to make a big profit to fund their future terrorist activities at the same time.
3. Same as two only someone learned that 9/11 was going to happen and bought the options using this inside information.

Personally, I think option 1 is most likely. And then the Islamic nutjobs took credit for the act to build their notoriety with the entire Islamic nutjob world.

[willyback]

At the end of the day who really cares...

If we're going down, we're going down. Today's American just talks sh*t (they take no action). The people in charge know this and govern us accordingly - there's no fear of a civil uprising. When the government doesn't fear the people, the people fall victim to bad policy.

My advice... Take measures to secure your personal finances. Brace yourself for the worst and hope for the best.

[ritehook]

You can thank your Congress critters for doing this to us. Here is how they did:
1. ZERO financial responsibility. Overall tax rates higher than the economy can support + budget deficits that cannot be supported + monetizing the debt (that means printing every larger amounts of money without anything to back it up).
2. Creating a business climate which makes it far more profitable for manufacturers to ship manufacturing jobs overseas. This destroyed the urban manufacturing base and the manufacturing base in the rural south. Go to any downtown area in the rural south and you will see shuttered mills.
3. Creating a permanent destitute class which relies on government assistance from cradle to grave. This class was created on purpose by the DemoCong's social engineering programs. The destruction of the urban manufacturing base went a long way to creating this class.
4. The misuse of H1 and H2 visas to bring almost 1 million professional workers to the United States to take jobs that Americans could be filling. These workers come from India and Pakistan mostly. H1 and H2 visas are supposed to be used only when Americans cannot be found to do the same work. The large corporations who abuse these visas don't even have to pretend anymore to be looking for Americans. Most of these jobs are not that "technical", 6 months to 1 year of technical school training would qualify someone for a majority of these jobs. The reason that big corporations do this is these Indians and Pakistanis are willing to work for wages that are ridiculously low.
5. Energy policy - refusal to create one. The DemoCong's energy policy is "punish the oil companies so that they cannot supply oil to America". The United States has massive untapped oil reserves. The DemoCong every year renew a moratorium on exploration or drilling within federal land or anywhere offshore. They are purposely keeping the supply of oil down.

The corn to ethanol "energy program" is a total disaster. It takes far more energy to produce ethanol from corn that you get in return using ethanol to fuel an internal destruction engine. This program only exists due to subsidies and mandates that all gasoline use 10% ethanol. This program is a financial disaster because 1) drives up the cost of corn, 2) higher feed prices drive up the cost of meat and dairy products, 3) ethanol costs more than gasoline so adding 10% ethanol to gasoline drives up the cost of the gasoline, 4) adding ethanol to gasoline reqjuires the refineries to add a new very expensive process to their process of making gasoline, this makes gasoline cost more, 5) corn based ethanol is a MPG disaster, so gasoline with ethanol added to it gets lower gas mileage meaning the consumer has to fillup more often.

In other words the corn to ethanol program is a subsidy for 3 giant agribusinesses. The argument that this program "Helps" the farmers is nonsense because these 3 companies get 90% of the subsidies.

Brazil converted their economy to ethanol, and the DemoCong propagandists use this story. What they don't tell you is that Brazil makes ethanol from SUGAR CANE, not corn. Ethanol made from Sugar Cane is 10 times more effecient in terms of the number of BTUh you get at the vehicle's engine for each BTUh of energy put in to create the ethanol. What you probably don't know is that growing sugar cane in this country without a permit from the federal government is a FELONY. Guess how you get the permit? You give campaign contributions to two powerful senators who sit on the committee that allocate the permits. No, I am not making this up. Importation of ethanol made from sugar cane is a FELONY. This could easily be changed, the US could switch to a sugar cane based ethanol energy policy in a few months. That will never happen.

6. Giving most favored nation status to countries which are known to use slave labor like China. China got a lot for the cash they gave to Clinton when he was in office.

7. Allowing companies like Walmart to force US manufacturers t move overseas or be put out of business. When old man Walton was alive "Made in America" was Walmart's slogan. Not anymore. Personally I think the board of directors of Walmart should be tried for treason.

8. Setting up this inhumane system where a person can be an "illegal" due to his national origin. The problem with immigration isn't the immigrants. It is the fact that they are branded as "illegal" and then become part of an underground which can easily be exploited by employers. This depresses wages. The DemoCong like to say "but they do jobs Americans won't do". What they don't tell you is that because of their illegal status they are forced to do jobs for such low wages that Americans cannot do those jobs. What the DemoCong should say is that "they do jobs that Americans won't do for those wages". This could easily be fixed two ways. Give anyone who lives in the United States who does not have proper documentation a special legal status, but make it clear that they are not on path to citizenship and never can be as long as they stay here on this special legal status. This will eliminate the underground which can be exploited, because with legal rights these people will be able to work and if an employer tries to exploit them they will be able to seek redress of grievances from the federal labor department and other agencies. This special legal status would solve a whole host of problems.

The second thing that needs to be done is to build a Hadrian's wall on the Mexico-United States border and completely eliminate ILLEGAL traffic across the border while making LEGAL traffic across the border easier.

These two things could easily be done, but won't be because the DemoCong have no desire to fix this problem. They are purposely creating a new permanently destitute class because they believe that permanently destitute people will always vote the DemoCong ticket.

Another thing that the DemoCong allow big corporations like Walmart to get away with is the hiring of illegal workers through "contractors". The big corporations know this is being done but when the "contractors" get caught hiring illegals the big corporation says "we didn't know the contractor was doing that". Nonsense. They should be punished just the same. And the punishment shouldn't be a slap on the wrist. First offense should be a huge fine, second offense should be slapping the CEO and the board of directors in jail. Not a white collar country club. A real hell hole. Third offense should be the forfeiture of all stock owned by the CEO and board of directors. Fourth offense should be the seizure of the company by the federal government and selling it to the employees. Or execution by firing squad, I can't decide which.

All the root causes of the current economic crisis could be fixed but the Congress critters have zero incentive to fix them.

The voters in this country need to institute term limits at the ballot box.

Can't say I disagree with most of this post (tho more dubious about the second post . .. altho there are those on these boards who would concur re 9/11).

The remarks about the ethonol scam are right on the mark. It's not only the major agribusiness firms that engineered this snooker job, but the fact that all prez candidates must campaign in Iowa, whre they have to promise the farm lobby there to push for ethonol.

[ritehook]

At the end of the day who really cares...

If we're going down, we're going down. Today's American just talks sh*t (they take no action). The people in charge know this and govern us accordingly - there's no fear of a civil uprising. When the government doesn't fear the people, the people fall victim to bad policy.

My advice... Take measures to secure your personal finances. Brace yourself for the worst and hope for the best.

Can't gainsay your conclusions. Doing this basic stuff is more than most people do.

It's clear to see from some of the posts on this thread that there are folks,having lived in a prosperous land, where no one ever starves, has fixed a mindset that this will always be so.

Ok with me. I don't "do anything" special, except to take a few (very few) prudent steps. I do strongly suspect that those who have a combative nature, who thrive on chaos (some people do) and who are under the age of around 40, are going to have a ball in the next few decades.

I think the prospect of a military coup inside the next 15 or 20 years is not easily discounted (The number of disaffected high ranking officers over the neocon snatch of the Pentagon is higher than the media has told us.)

Personally, I'd rather see large dramatic happenings, armageddon in our living rooms, than a slow, microcospic bleed.

True, most would rather have neither, but as Spengler stated, you are going be to either the object or subject of the movement of History.