Sonics +3500 5Dimes

[john pavlic]

I think I will get a little down on this, as these are pro's. Need a 40 point night from Durant lol!

[rake922]

Celts will win by 24

[bettilimbroke999]

Lottery ticket pays +1000000000. Doesn't mean it's a good investment

[SBR Lou]

You are crazy if you take this.

[Wyndham]

You'll need an 80-point night from Durant and a bus to run over Kevin Garnett.

[MiamiBoy86]

eh...Celtics lost to who again back to back???? Wizards??? I forget, but someone not so good in a week span, anything can happen it's the NBA!!!! PAVLIC, GOOD LUCK!!

[john pavlic]

I am simply saying that pro's against pro's i'll take 35 to 1

[tevari]

it's worth 50 bucks IMHO

[BuddyBear]

Agreed here with the reasoning...after all, these are professionals. I mean, BOS did lose to Charlotte this year at home as 14 pt favs.

Good luck John...

[Bill Dozer]

I like it. It will keep a boring game interesting.

[BuddyBear]

Good luck Bill with your SEA ML bet too....

[SBR Lou]

I like it. It will keep a boring game interesting.

Yeah, interesting the first 2-3 minutes until the game settles in. Over by half most likely.

[john pavlic]

Sea 6 Bos 5 first quarter im still in it!!! LOL

[MJFtheGenius]

yea Boston will not allow the Sonics to beat them in Boston. GL you will need it.

[john pavlic]

I dont need good luck this is a value play thats all i expect them to lose if they dont i make a ton of money

[donjuan]

Just out of interest, what do you estimate the true odds to be for this game?

[MJFtheGenius]

well out of all the dogs today I would rank the Sonics of probably having the least value. You have a better chance at winning the lottery

[greek]

not gonna happen

[donjuan]

well out of all the dogs today I would rank the Sonics of probably having the least value. You have a better chance at winning the lottery

Then you're all over Boston moneyline?

[MJFtheGenius]

Then you're all over Boston moneyline?

No that makes no sense, I never said that. It was probably like -3000. It does not make sense to risk 3000 to win 100.

[donjuan]

No that makes no sense, I never said that. It was probably like -3000. It does not make sense to risk 3000 to win 100.

It absolutely makes sense. +EV, +EG bet with almost no TVM issue. What kind of idiot passes that up?

Hint: If one line is +3500 and you can find another at -3000, at least one of these is a good bet.

[MJFtheGenius]

It absolutely makes sense. +EV, +EG bet with almost no TVM issue. What kind of idiot passes that up?

Hint: If one line is +3500 and you can find another at -3000, at least one of these is a good bet.

I just guessed what it was. It was probably more like -4000. I don't lay that kind of juice.

[donjuan]

I just guessed what it was. It was probably more like -4000. I don't lay that kind of juice.

Not laying that kind of juice when it is a good bet is moronic in the extreme.

[MJFtheGenius]

Well buddy I believe in the phrase "thats why they play the game"

[donjuan]

Well buddy I believe in the phrase "thats why they play the game"

LOL. So what % of the time do the Sonics win this game and what percent of the time do the Celtics win?

[MJFtheGenius]

LOL. So what % of the time do the Sonics win this game and what percent of the time do the Celtics win?

probably 1

[donjuan]

So the Celtics win the game 99% of the time and you wouldn't take -3000? You, sir, either hate money or should have a legal guardian for the rest of your life and probably both.

Hint: after 500 bets at -3000 with a 99% chance of winning on a 10k bankroll, your median bankroll would be over 2.2 million.

[MJFtheGenius]

Nah man I am just a small player. I only risk $100 a game.

[donjuan]

Nah man I am just a small player. I only risk $100 a game.

So you hate money?

[donjuan]

Just in case you were wondering,

Starting Bankroll: $100
Odds for bet: -3000
Chance of winning: 99%
1000 bets

Median bankroll: $4.2 million

[MJFtheGenius]

good point

[bettilimbroke999]

Just in case you were wondering,

Starting Bankroll: $100
Odds for bet: -3000
Chance of winning: 99%
1000 bets

Median bankroll: $4.2 million

What the hell is median bankroll?

If you made a 1000 bets for a 100 a piece and won 100% at -4000 you'd only be up 2500 and if you bet 1000-game parlay any one of the expected 10 losses would break you, so strange math

[donjuan]

It's what your median bankroll is after betting full Kelly x number of times.

[durito]

I just guessed what it was. It was probably more like -4000. I don't lay that kind of juice.

-4100 (on a -4100/3100 line set as this closed at pinnacle) is far less juice than -105 (on a -105/-105 line set). What kind of juice are you willing to pay?

[MJFtheGenius]

-4100 (on a -4100/3100 line set as this closed at pinnacle) is far less juice than -105 (on a -105/-105 line set). What kind of juice are you willing to pay?

Hoops I normally play a straight bet -110 but once in awhile I will play a moneyline parlay and I will go up to -200 or slightly higher.