dow 5000 ?????????

Dirty Sanchez · 08-25-10, 09:32 PM

Never gonna happen...there would almost need to be a fear of a Depression to collapse that far....people are just fear mongering because it's election time

pavyracer · 08-25-10, 09:54 PM

It went 6500 last year. It could easily go to 5000 by November 8th election time this year.

wtf · 08-25-10, 10:02 PM

the nikkei used to be at almost 40,000 , it is now 9000

they had a huge property bubble, exactly like america

now mired in stagflation for over a decade

americans expect everything to happen quickly, this is going to drag on

impossible to rid the market of so much dead wood in a few years

tltaylor89 · 08-25-10, 10:06 PM

$9.7 Trillion in money on the sidelines ,volitility is coming back and alot of people are getting shook out of positions.

pavyracer · 08-25-10, 10:08 PM

I predict a market correction the day after Labor Day. A 2,000 point drop in that week is not unreasonable.

Mr. Jones · 08-25-10, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by Dirty Sanchez

Never gonna happen...there would almost need to be a fear of a Depression to collapse that far....people are just fear mongering because it's election time

There is a fear of a Depression sir. A real fear.

tltaylor89 · 08-25-10, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I predict a market correction the day after Labor Day. A 2,000 point drop in that week is not unreasonable.

Pavy for that to happen a terroist attack on US soil ,and Euro going to parody must take place.Even if it goes the exchanges will cry trading error .

wtf · 08-25-10, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by tltaylor89

Pavy for that to happen a terroist attack on US soil ,and Euro going to parody must take place.Even if it goes the exchanges will cry trading error .

you work in finance?????????

pavyracer · 08-25-10, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by tltaylor89

Pavy for that to happen a terroist attack on US soil ,and Euro going to parody must take place.Even if it goes the exchanges will cry trading error .

Most summer jobs will be laying off people by Labor Day. Unemployment will reach 15% nationally after the massive layoffs.

tltaylor89 · 08-25-10, 10:24 PM

All I know is alot of people will get hurt positioning themselves for the reflation trade.I don't see rates being raised until 3 years down the road.

Brock Landers · 08-25-10, 10:32 PM

putting my shit in guaranteed bonds as soon as i get back up to 100 dimes

Emily_Haines · 08-25-10, 10:40 PM

5000 seems a bit to optimistic for me. I think the bitch is going to 0.

TexansFan · 08-25-10, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Most summer jobs will be laying off people by Labor Day. Unemployment will reach 15% nationally after the massive layoffs.

Realistically it's already at 15%, if not more. Once people stop receiving unemployment I don't believe they count them anymore. I think it's easy to add another 6 to 8% of what's reported.

jjgold · 08-25-10, 10:55 PM

I say it will come down to about 8,000 in a year

wtf · 08-25-10, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by TexansFan

Realistically it's already at 15%, if not more. Once people stop receiving unemployment I don't believe they count them anymore. I think it's easy to add another 6 to 8% of what's reported.

you are exactly right, if you have been looking for a job for more than six months, YOUR OFF THE LIST

the number reported is shockingly skewed to reduce the real number, real economists agree with your number of actually greater than 15% possibly closer to 20% than to the reported 10%

Poker_Beast · 08-25-10, 11:01 PM

That would be ugly, scary shit right now.

tltaylor89 · 08-25-10, 11:06 PM

Rofl I want it to go to 5000 imaging Google at $85 lol.

tatommack · 08-26-10, 12:13 AM

God I hope not I can't take this crap

BookieOweMe · 08-26-10, 12:14 AM

Lots of bad news being released. Just like today, but that rally was good.

wtf · 08-26-10, 04:11 AM

neener's contention is this is the end of the super bull cycle

not all stocks will crumble, as there is some winners in the japanese market

pico · 08-26-10, 05:04 AM

would it be funny if it went to 1k.

Mr KLC · 08-26-10, 05:13 AM

A double dip recession is on the way.

SBR_John · 08-26-10, 05:42 AM

Everyone knew there would be a double dip. You just dont rocket ahead after that horrendous banking/housing/auto meltdown without a few soft quarters.

But with this back drop of zero inflation and extremely low interest rates and company profits in decent shape I still say the easier trades are to be long. Could be sideways for a while but there is no reason to sell stocks like XOM that pay dividends 50% higher than the 10 year T bond rate. Its actually a good set up to run up a bit from here and get back to a trading range.

pico · 08-26-10, 06:05 AM

double dip is not going to happen. when everyone thinks it is going to happen, it won't happen.

this is going to be like the hindenberg chart pattern back in 2005. shorts are going to get hosed soon.

wtf · 08-26-10, 06:23 AM

friend of mine in america said his broker called him two weeks ago and said market is crashing to 8k in the next few days and for him to sell now

he was asking for my advice as he is just a technical guy, i told him to DO NOTHING, dont read the finance section, dont watch msnbc, etc.

saved him about 50k as market went up afterwards

those brokers must be retarded just parroting what they read in that days wsj

geebert74 · 08-26-10, 06:46 AM

Just have to wait and see... I would be a very happy man if this happens...

SBR_John · 08-26-10, 08:17 AM

More than half of the Dow stocks offer a dividend ABOVE the 10 year TBond rate. I could see a trading range but a significant break down back to the lows??? Not in the cards. We are at the low end of the trading range of 9700-11500. The range I'm looking to trade is 10,200 - 10900 so imo the market is a good buy here at 10,000 with stops at 9700.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-26-10, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by wtf

friend of mine in america said his broker called him two weeks ago and said market is crashing to 8k in the next few days and for him to sell now

he was asking for my advice as he is just a technical guy, i told him to DO NOTHING, dont read the finance section, dont watch msnbc, etc.

saved him about 50k as market went up afterwards

those brokers must be retarded just parroting what they read in that days wsj

Most brokers don't know shit about anything. Generally, they are fed directives/recommendations from the higher ups in their firm.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-26-10, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by SBR_John

More than half of the Dow stocks offer a dividend ABOVE the 10 year TBond rate. I could see a trading range but a significant break down back to the lows??? Not in the cards. We are at the low end of the trading range of 9700-11500. The range I'm looking to trade is 10,200 - 10900 so imo the market is a good buy here at 10,000 with stops at 9700.

Agreed. I've been saying for months that we'll go sideways for awhile. Virtually, the entire market is range bound currently.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-26-10, 08:54 AM

Double dip? Not likely. A 50% correction? LOL.

We still have moderate growth in a time where there is essentially a credit freeze.

thebestthereis · 08-26-10, 08:57 AM

we are going nowhere but down once the plunger team cannot keep pumping up the market

MonkeyF0cker · 08-26-10, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

we are going nowhere but down once the plunger team cannot keep pumping up the market

One would need to be a believer of Keynesian economics themselves to subscribe to the idea that the stimulus and extended unemployment benefits are a boom to the economy.

bytor · 08-26-10, 09:49 AM

Some of you guys are too optimistic. The bad part is that we are getting to a point where water and food are going to be THE commodities.

statnerds · 08-26-10, 10:09 AM

a double-dip would rely on one believing there was a mild recovery in the first place, which there was not. there were smoke-and-mirror cash for clunkers and home buyer credit and of course government spending. government spending does nothing to stimulate an economy, unless you ignore history. the government's only source of income is American taxpayers. so when 1 out of every 5 isn't working, where does the government get the money?

sideways would be a win right now.

taxes will go up in January.
ARMs going to reset.

just read that like 22 or 23 other states are considering passing immigration laws similar to Arizona's.

everyone bitching about unemployment, which is at least 15%, should consider what it would be without millions and millions of beaners stealing jobs.

but this president and administration don't care about the people or what we want or what we need.

over 60% want obama care repealed
over 63% approve of Arizona's immigration law
over 65% are against cap and tax
over 80% finally believe that government spending is the cause of the extended recession as opposed to taxes being too low

November is going to be a fukkin bloodblath for the Dems