when capping your bowl games? Do you rate them, will you stick with one you feel is underrated, will you fade one you feel is overrated?
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These past few years I kinda of tend to fade the big 10 favorites.Comment -
i know a lot of people play the SEC regardless, but not much going on in this thread it seems. i suppose we'll see peoples betting tactics when they release their selections.
btw, we're gonna need a change in the smileys over here. some good ones we need and about 42 thousand that wont be used.
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I usually look at the conference on all bowl games. Pretty major trends go into that, but I prefer to bet on offensive/defensive styles and how they add up in that conference. For instance, I feel illinois offense is 2nd in the big ten because they run the spread, but outside of their conference they are not that great on O(although they put up a lot of points on mizzou, but mizzou has a horrid defense at times.)Comment -
It really depends on the sport.. I have very little respect for BigTen teams in College Football.Comment -
I follow the big ten as much as the other big conferences besides the Pac-10 of course. Bet a lot of the games as well so yes I know a lot..Comment -
Last year conference players were killed in the bowl games. Its not an angle you can play every year.
I mentioned motivation in another thread. With the looong prep time motivation/coaching is probably the number 1 factor in about half of the games. The other half of the games have about equal motivation.Comment -
Conferences are VERY important in Bowls, so important in fact that if you are too lazy to handicap and merely played on certain conferences as dogs and against certain conferences as favorites (effectively making you bet dogs only), you could make a nice living. My article on this subject is currently the headline article here on the CFB page (shameless plug...LOL).
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Hate to say it, but "it depends." Sometimes you can get an idea of schedule strength by rating a conference. For instance, last year the SEC was clearly the best, and so showed in the championship game.
This year the SEC is off a bit -- but just a bit.
The PAC 10 looks strong, nonetheless I'm on BYU and against UCLA today, and against Cal later, tho on Ariz St.
Big 10, as others have said, is not the power they once were. A lot of parity now, and the fact that around 9 of the 11 technically qualified for a bowl probably means that they were taking turns beating up on each other.
Still, I give Ohio State, as a dog, a small edge in the championship game. Which, if justice prevailed, would be between USC and Oklahoma. Even VA Tech, despite the early big loss at LSU, is a top team now, the tragedy and crepe hanging behind them. May have been on top had that essential summer practice not been cancelled.Comment -
Well in bowl games throw everything out and take dogs, I gave up years ago trying to cape bowl games.Comment -
Let me just post the article here so you can all see the numbers. The Big Ten has sucked ass as Bowl Favorites, but have has done well in the dog role By the way, the single qualifiers are 2-1 so far this year (won Southern Miss, UCLA, lost Nevada), and there haven't been any double qualifiers yet:
Fade Big Ten favorites, play Pac-10 dogs in Bowls
By: LT Profits Sports Group | sbrforum.com
The college bowl season is upon us, and w are certainly in a bowl underdog cycle right now with all bowl dogs hitting at a 55.0 percent rate against the spread since 2000. And by simply focusing on certain conference profiles, out winning percentage increases substantially. Here are some of the best play on/fade trends for the 2007 postseason on the college gridiron.
Another College Football Bowl Season is among us, a time when seemingly anything is possible (see Boise State) and handicapping games is probably more difficult than at any other time of the year.
One common shortcut theory in lieu of actually handicapping these games is to simply bet the underdogs in all bowl games, since they should have the advantage when two teams that are unfamiliar with each other square off. As simplistic as that sounds, history shows that doing just that will keep you in the game with a slight profit, but you will not break the bank either as all bowl underdogs are 269-231-10, 53.8 percent against the spread since 1985. Please note that this assumes passing on games that are rated “Pick’em”. At that rate, you would have picked up 14.90 units in 22 bowl seasons, which is chunk change but still beats losing.
However, there has certainly been a cyclical pattern to the success of bowl underdogs, and we are in a strong dog cycle right now. Since the 2000 season, bowl dogs have improved to 120-98-4, 55.0 percent ATS, which is certainly a nice bankroll-builder by itself, but we have found that focusing on certain conferences that have done well as underdogs and those that have done poorly as favorites have improved that winning percentage even more.
For example, did you know that simply playing on Pac-10 underdogs in bowls the last seven years has gone 11-3, 78.6 percent ATS, or that simply fading Big Ten favorites is a fantastic 14-2, 87.5 percent? We analyzed all the conferences since the 2000 season, and have come up with a list of five conferences that have been strong “Play Ons” as underdogs and four conferences that have been strong “Play Againsts” as favorites. Then, at the end of this article, we have summarized the 2007 bowls in regards to how the conference angles apply, using lines that current as of December 6.
BOWL GAMES ONLY since 2000
Bet ON as Underdogs:
CONFERENCE W L Pct.
Pac-10 11 3 78.8%
ACC 19 6 76.0%
WAC 7 3 70.0%
Big Ten 20 11 64.5%
SEC 17 10 63.0%
Bet AGAINST as Favorites (records are FADE records):
CONFERENCE W L Pct.
Big Ten 14 2 87.5%
Pac-10 16 9 64.0%
Big East 8 5 61.5%
Big 12 23 16 59.0%
2007 DUAL QUALIFIERS
These are bowls where a “Play On” underdog is facing a “Play Against” favorite
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Holiday Bowl: Arizona State +1½ vs. Texas (On Pac-10/Vs. Big 12)
Friday, December 28, 2007
Emerald Bowl: Maryland +4 vs. Oregon State (On ACC/Vs. Pac-10)
Monday, December 31, 2007
Sun Bowl: Oregon +6½ vs. South Florida (On Pac-10/Vs. Big East)
Insight Bowl: Indiana +4 vs. Oklahoma State (On Big Ten/Vs. Big 12)
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Cotton Bowl: Arkansas +3 vs. Missouri (On SEC/Vs. Big 12)
Gator Bowl: Virginia +6 vs. Texas Tech (On ACC/Vs. Big 12)
Rose Bowl: Illinois +13 vs. USC (On Big Ten/Vs. Pac-10)
2007 SINGLE QUALIFIERS
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Papa John’s Bowl: Southern Miss +11 vs. Cincinnati (Vs. Big East)
New Mexico Bowl: Nevada +3 vs. New Mexico (On WAC)
Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA +6½ vs. BYU (On Pac-10)
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Motor City Bowl: Central Michigan +8½ vs. Purdue (Vs. Big Ten)
Friday, December 28, 2007
Champs Sports Bowl: Michigan State +3½ vs. Boston College (On Big Ten)
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State +3 vs. Central Florida (On SEC)
Alamo Bowl: Texas A&M +5 vs. Penn State (Vs. Big Ten)
Monday, December 31, 2007
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force +3 vs. California (Vs. Pac-10)
Music City Bowl: Florida State +1 vs. Kentucky (On ACC)
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Auburn +2 vs. Clemson (On SEC)
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin +3 vs. Tennessee (On Big Ten)
Capital One Bowl: Michigan +10 vs. Florida (On Big Ten)
Sugar Bowl: Hawaii +9½ vs. Georgia (On WAC)
Saturday, January 5, 2008
International Bowl: Ball State +10 Rutgers (Vs. Big East)
Monday, January 7, 2008
BCS Championship: Ohio State +5 LSU (On Big Ten)Comment -
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