Would you or wouldn't you?

LostBankroll · 08-10-10, 08:54 AM

HELL NO. Maybe if it was a solid play IMO then yes but never on a game I have no clue about.

poker_dummy101 · 08-10-10, 08:59 AM

wtf kind of question is this? even i didnt think you were this dumb johnson...its just like flipping a fukkin coin. who cares? there is no great science/prediction/or anything else behind this.

you gave out this bs paragraph to tell us we had a coin flip for our whole bankroll, would you do it?

cant wait for your football writeups... i hope they are half as good

Extra Innings · 08-10-10, 08:59 AM

Nope...anything can happen.

poker_dummy101 · 08-10-10, 09:03 AM

to add... are you implying that the opening line might be off by 7 pts or so? and thats the edge youd have? well its not. you said no opinion and normally wouldnt play at -+10. therefore the +-10 is close to "your" true line and is no advantage.. hence just like flipping a coin

Swinging Johnson · 08-10-10, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

to add... are you implying that the opening line might be off by 7 pts or so? and thats the edge youd have? well its not. you said no opinion and normally wouldnt play at -+10. therefore the +-10 is close to "your" true line and is no advantage.. hence just like flipping a coin

Hey Dummy, don't over think it. I'm not implying anything, merely posing a question. Would the allure of getting 10 free points either way, seduce you into betting your bankroll. Normally this would cost you about -400 or slightly higher which you would get for -110. Just asking, stick to being a Dummy not a Hater.

sharpcat · 08-10-10, 09:38 AM

A free 10 points would move your odds of winning from 50% to roughly 86%. At -110 full kelly (which is pretty aggressive) recommends to bet 70.6% of your bankroll.

Unless you have a 100% guaranteed chance of winning you should never bet your entire bankroll on any wager.

Swinging Johnson · 08-10-10, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by sharpcat

A free 10 points would move your odds of winning from 50% to roughly 86%. At -110 full kelly (which is pretty aggressive) recommends to bet 70.6% of your bankroll.

Unless you have a 100% guaranteed chance of winning you should never bet your entire bankroll on any wager.

I see we have men of restraint thus far. So Sharpie, in your "humble" opinion (can anyone who goes by the name Sharpie be humble?) how mnay points would it take for you to pull the trigger on your bankroll. Everyone has a price, or in this case, a number.

samhouston · 08-10-10, 09:45 AM

Not a chance I do that.

jackpot269 · 08-10-10, 09:55 AM

I would not

sharpcat · 08-10-10, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by Swinging Johnson

I see we have men of restraint thus far. So Sharpie, in your "humble" opinion (can anyone who goes by the name Sharpie be humble?) how mnay points would it take for you to pull the trigger on your bankroll. Everyone has a price, or in this case, a number.

Since you could never put a 100% win probability on any sporting event it would never be justified to bet your entire bankroll on any game. This is just my opinion though.

Swinging Johnson · 08-10-10, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Since you could never put a 100% win probability on any sporting event it would never be justified to bet your entire bankroll on any game. This is just my opinion though.

25 points? What say you?!

mdemps9190 · 08-10-10, 10:22 AM

I think I would do it, depending on what my financial situation was. If I NEEDED the money then I wouldn't risk it all, but then again, I wouldn't be betting it.

poker_dummy101 · 08-10-10, 10:27 AM

Sorry, thats not the question.. you asked if i had no opinion on the game would i play the fav -10 or the underdog +10. how would i know which line had value if i had no opinion? like i said stupid question

i assume by looking at sharpcats answer you mean that its a pick 'em line and the underdog is now getting 10 points or if you were to play the fav the true line would be -20 and you could get it at -10

Swinging Johnson · 08-10-10, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

Sorry, thats not the question.. you asked if i had no opinion on the game would i play the fav -10 or the underdog +10. how would i know which line had value if i had no opinion? like i said stupid question

i assume by looking at sharpcats answer you mean that its a pick 'em line and the underdog is now getting 10 points or if you were to play the fav the true line would be -20 and you could get it at -10

Let me typle slowly so even you can understand this. The line could be a pickem, it could be Fav-2, Fav-9, Fav-11, Fav-17...are you getting the gist? What difference does it matter?!!!! Have you started paying your mother rent?

poker_dummy101 · 08-10-10, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by Swinging Johnson

Let me typle slowly so even you can understand this. The line could be a pickem, it could be Fav-2, Fav-9, Fav-11, Fav-17...are you getting the gist? What difference does it matter?!!!! Have you started paying your mother rent?

Like I said in my original post.. this is the dumbest thread you ever made. If you have no opinion on the game when the line is at +-10 then you have no idea if you have value or not. Its the same thing as flipping a fukkin coin. How long did it take you to come up with this question?

I think 3rd graders can come up with a harder question

poker_dummy101 · 08-10-10, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by sharpcat

A free 10 points would move your odds of winning from 50% to roughly 86%. At -110 full kelly (which is pretty aggressive) recommends to bet 70.6% of your bankroll.

Unless you have a 100% guaranteed chance of winning you should never bet your entire bankroll on any wager.

Sorry, read what Suckingjohnson said again. You are not getting a free 10 points. You dont know what the line is and have no opinion on the game. Its a coin flip. The fukker cant even ask a decent question

Cookie Monster · 08-10-10, 10:45 AM

The problem trying to use Kelly in this situation is that it acts funny near the extremes if the assumptions are not right. A true Kelly bankroll would include a valuation of all your income potential in the rest of your life. Only in that way it is justified such aversion to risk the last cent.

In this case, the $10K are "the seasons bankroll". Most people earn that amount in a few months, so it is clearly an small fraction of the "real" bankroll. So, in that case, the answer should be: yes, I would cheerfully take an 86% bet paying 1:1 for $10k.

Now, returning to the real world, if the bet is too risky for your tastes, you could always have a beard hedging the bet elsewhere. Or a ghost account

Swinging Johnson · 08-10-10, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

Sorry, read what Suckingjohnson said again. You are not getting a free 10 points. You dont know what the line is and have no opinion on the game. Its a coin flip. The fukker cant even ask a decent question

Well then, if it's a coin flip (odds being 50/50) then why don't you allow me to bet you every game on the board this football season using the 10 points in each game to my advantage and I will in turn pay you 110-100? Flip of the coin right (oh man, the name is just soooooo fitting) Dummy?

BatemanPatrickl · 08-10-10, 10:48 AM

poker_dummy101 · 08-10-10, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by Swinging Johnson

Well then, if it's a coin flip (odds being 50/50) then why don't you allow me to bet you every game on the board this football season using the 10 points in each game to my advantage and I will in turn pay you 110-100? Flip of the coin right (oh man, the name is just soooooo fitting) Dummy?

are you missing the fukking point?

This was your topic:

If you have no opinion on a game at +-10

Do you understand what that means? You have no fukking clue if you are getting a better or worse line and it is laughable for anyone to argue different and no you can't use any sort of kelly in it unless you want to put in a 50% bet which is obviously 0EV

and you even said we have a good grasp of the teams yet we dont have an opinion on this game ats at 10. wth are you thinking

poker_dummy101 · 08-10-10, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by Swinging Johnson

Let me typle slowly so even you can understand this. The line could be a pickem, it could be Fav-2, Fav-9, Fav-11, Fav-17...are you getting the gist? What difference does it matter?!!!! Have you started paying your mother rent?

i thought maybe you were just poor at writing and sharpcat was right, but this post pretty much sums up its a coin flip for you.

itchypickle · 08-10-10, 10:58 AM

That's a big NO bet.

rfr3sh · 08-10-10, 11:37 AM

wtf kind of question is this

whatsgood5 · 08-10-10, 11:44 AM

The way you worded that has caused a lot of confusion, and I can understand why...

Swinging Johnson · 08-10-10, 11:58 AM

Boys, the asylum is down the street and take a right. If this confuses you, I can understand why you're all unemployed. Dummy, I told myself I wouldn't entertain your inane ramblings any longer but, I'll break my promise. You're essentially stating if you don't have an opinion on a game then no movement of the line can inspire you to form an opinion. If the Saints are at home and favored by 7 over the Ravens, you may take a pass. However, if the Ravens are now getting 17 or the Saints are +3, that won't change your mind? Of course it would! You're telling me you wouldn't put any money at all (forget about an entire bankroll for a minute) on one side or the other (and no you cant play both sides for a middle)? Well if your answer is yes I would then say you just made my point and if your answer is no i wouldn't put any money on a game I had no opinion on even if I'm getting an additional 10 points from the opening line, then you're disingenuous.

rfr3sh · 08-10-10, 12:01 PM

yeah you missed the key word 10 free pts from the opener that's a big difference and no I would not go.all in

poker_dummy101 · 08-10-10, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

Sorry, thats not the question.. you asked if i had no opinion on the game would i play the fav -10 or the underdog +10. how would i know which line had value if i had no opinion? like i said stupid question

i assume by looking at sharpcats answer you mean that its a pick 'em line and the underdog is now getting 10 points or if you were to play the fav the true line would be -20 and you could get it at -10

Here is me saying that what you MEANT to say is you get a 10 free points

Originally posted by Swinging Johnson

Let me typle slowly so even you can understand this. The line could be a pickem, it could be Fav-2, Fav-9, Fav-11, Fav-17...are you getting the gist? What difference does it matter?!!!! Have you started paying your mother rent?

Here is you saying: Blah blah blah

If you had confirmed that your original post was a fukkin joke of a post and you meant to say you get 10 free points none of this would have happened.

Swinging Johnson · 08-10-10, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

Here is me saying that what you MEANT to say is you get a 10 free points

Here is you saying: Blah blah blah

If you had confirmed that your original post was a fukkin joke of a post and you meant to say you get 10 free points none of this would have happened.

Took 3 hours but you got it. You're sharp as an eraser head there Dummy.