NFL Odds: Return Units and Betting Effects
Offensive and defensive stats are easy to throw into a Monday morning conversation around the water cooler. But ignoring special teams numbers and their effect on the betting outcome of a game play right into the old adage that begins with "a fool and his money." Returning kicks and shutting down the opposition's return game can be the difference between a spread winner or loser.
I love America’s fascination with football – our version of it – and as a corollary, football betting. It keeps me employed, and keeps us all from going crazy after two solid months of nothing but baseball.
Football season gives us something for which to look forward, and in that vein, we have plenty of time to delve into every possible angle before the season even begins.
That’s why this week I’m looking at the NFL’s best return units, and to what extent return units affect betting. There are other more pertinent things to talk about, but trust me, every stone will be turned by the time Super Bowl XLV in Dallas rolls around.
Besides, do we really need to know what Brett Favre and Brad Childress discussed at dinner the other night? Don’t want to spoil it for you, but Favre is coming back, he’s just sitting out until the middle of camp just because he can. Sorry I ruined it.
Return units matter because football is a game of field position. That’s especially true in the NFL, where big plays can be broken at any time and kickers routinely nail 50-yard field goals.
We love to talk about matchups, strategies, offenses, and defenses, but special teams are the other third of the game. Return units are a big part of special teams. Having a good return unit, and on the other hand, having the ability to contain the opponent’s return team, takes a ton of pressure off both the offense and defense.
It also matters over the course of the season. An offense won’t be as worn down if it doesn’t have to go as far to score in every game of every week.
Looking at the elements of a good return unit, it’s about personnel, coaching, and the coach’s attitude towards the personnel. The Eagles and Patriots have two of the best punt return units in the league because they use DeSean Jackson and Wes Welker, respectively, to return punts.
Believe it or not, this is an area at which the Browns are the best in the NFL, and not just because they have Josh Cribbs returning kicks. Cleveland allowed a league-low 18.9 yards per kickoff return, and was fifth in yards allowed per punt return (6.6).
With Cribbs leading the way, the Browns were third in yards per punt return (11.7), and seventh in yards per kickoff return (24.2). Cribbs returned three kickoffs to the house, and one punt for a touchdown.
Cleveland gets a lot of practice returning kickoffs, let’s face it, but the proof is in the pudding. Despite having the worst offense (260.2 YPG), and second-worst defense (389.3 YPG) in the NFL, the Browns went 5-11 SU and a profitable 10-6 ATS. Their return unit – on both sides of the ball – allowed them to hit above their weight in a division with two playoff teams and the defending Super Bowl champions.
On the other side of the coin, the Steelers went 9-7 SU and a dismal 5-10-1 ATS with one of the worst return units in the league. Pittsburgh missed the playoffs, and it mattered that they were 27th with 24.3 yards per kick return allowed.
Like I mentioned earlier, Philadelphia doesn’t slouch on personnel, and it paid off. Jackson led the NFL in punt return yards per attempt (15.2), as the Eagles finished first in the category. Only 11th in total offense (357.9), Philly finished fifth in scoring offense (26.8 PPG) en route to a 9-7 ATS (11-5 SU) record.
The team to keep an eye on this season is the 49ers. Not only is San Francisco poised to take over the NFC West with Kurt Warner now retired, but the addition of PR/KR/WR Ted Ginn Jr. was one of the most fruitful moves of the offseason.
The Niners went an excellent 9-4-3 ATS (8-8 SU) last season with the worst punt return unit going (4.4 yards per punt return). Add Ginn to the mix, and San Francisco could be headed for big things.
Offensive and defensive stats are easy to throw into a Monday morning conversation around the water cooler. But ignoring special teams numbers and their effect on the betting outcome of a game play right into the old adage that begins with "a fool and his money." Returning kicks and shutting down the opposition's return game can be the difference between a spread winner or loser.
I love America’s fascination with football – our version of it – and as a corollary, football betting. It keeps me employed, and keeps us all from going crazy after two solid months of nothing but baseball.
Football season gives us something for which to look forward, and in that vein, we have plenty of time to delve into every possible angle before the season even begins.
That’s why this week I’m looking at the NFL’s best return units, and to what extent return units affect betting. There are other more pertinent things to talk about, but trust me, every stone will be turned by the time Super Bowl XLV in Dallas rolls around.
Besides, do we really need to know what Brett Favre and Brad Childress discussed at dinner the other night? Don’t want to spoil it for you, but Favre is coming back, he’s just sitting out until the middle of camp just because he can. Sorry I ruined it.
Return units matter because football is a game of field position. That’s especially true in the NFL, where big plays can be broken at any time and kickers routinely nail 50-yard field goals.
We love to talk about matchups, strategies, offenses, and defenses, but special teams are the other third of the game. Return units are a big part of special teams. Having a good return unit, and on the other hand, having the ability to contain the opponent’s return team, takes a ton of pressure off both the offense and defense.
It also matters over the course of the season. An offense won’t be as worn down if it doesn’t have to go as far to score in every game of every week.
Looking at the elements of a good return unit, it’s about personnel, coaching, and the coach’s attitude towards the personnel. The Eagles and Patriots have two of the best punt return units in the league because they use DeSean Jackson and Wes Welker, respectively, to return punts.
Believe it or not, this is an area at which the Browns are the best in the NFL, and not just because they have Josh Cribbs returning kicks. Cleveland allowed a league-low 18.9 yards per kickoff return, and was fifth in yards allowed per punt return (6.6).
With Cribbs leading the way, the Browns were third in yards per punt return (11.7), and seventh in yards per kickoff return (24.2). Cribbs returned three kickoffs to the house, and one punt for a touchdown.
Cleveland gets a lot of practice returning kickoffs, let’s face it, but the proof is in the pudding. Despite having the worst offense (260.2 YPG), and second-worst defense (389.3 YPG) in the NFL, the Browns went 5-11 SU and a profitable 10-6 ATS. Their return unit – on both sides of the ball – allowed them to hit above their weight in a division with two playoff teams and the defending Super Bowl champions.
On the other side of the coin, the Steelers went 9-7 SU and a dismal 5-10-1 ATS with one of the worst return units in the league. Pittsburgh missed the playoffs, and it mattered that they were 27th with 24.3 yards per kick return allowed.
Like I mentioned earlier, Philadelphia doesn’t slouch on personnel, and it paid off. Jackson led the NFL in punt return yards per attempt (15.2), as the Eagles finished first in the category. Only 11th in total offense (357.9), Philly finished fifth in scoring offense (26.8 PPG) en route to a 9-7 ATS (11-5 SU) record.
The team to keep an eye on this season is the 49ers. Not only is San Francisco poised to take over the NFC West with Kurt Warner now retired, but the addition of PR/KR/WR Ted Ginn Jr. was one of the most fruitful moves of the offseason.
The Niners went an excellent 9-4-3 ATS (8-8 SU) last season with the worst punt return unit going (4.4 yards per punt return). Add Ginn to the mix, and San Francisco could be headed for big things.