Starting a Lock Fund

VTranX · 06-14-10, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

I was curious to see how often 21 runs or more are scored. Not counting this year, but from 2000-2009 (22,511 games) (stats from cleanuphitter), there have been 467 games where 21 runs or more were scored:

21 161 0.0072
22 90 0.0040
23 69 0.0031
24 44 0.0020
25 30 0.0013
26 23 0.0010
27 17 0.0008
28 7 0.0003
29 7 0.0003
30 6 0.0003
31 6 0.0003
32 1 0.0000
33 3 0.0001
34 1 0.0000
35 1 0.0000
36 1 0.0000
Total: 467 0.020745413

With the above percentage for 1000 games, you would win 979 and lose 21.
At -8300, risking $1000 wins $12.04
979 Wins = $11,784 (979 x 12.04)
21 losses = -21,000
Net= -9,216

The odds should be closer to -4662

The above is without regard to starting pitchers, etc., and of course we know you're picking and choosing, and not blindly taking every game.

Good luck in your pursuit.

The numbers don't lie.

rm18 · 06-14-10, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

I took them to win the game in the live betting at the last timeout

rm18 · 06-14-10, 07:21 AM

Right I know 5 dimes does not pull thier OU 20.5 #'s out of the air it is based on stats just got to pick the right games. I very high percentage of those game I would think involve a couple teams and parks, although anything can happen the3 Padres have had a few really high games this year.

rm18 · 06-15-10, 07:28 AM

Taking a short line today at only -700 but it seems like a lock because of how the flow of the game will be, we project 11 corners for Brazil and 0 for North Korea.

52714817-1 6/15/10 8:27am $1,098.00 $195.14 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 6/15/10 2:30pm WorldCup2010 Soccer 20104 Brazil corners taken -½ -700* vs North Korea corners taken
Pending 6/15/10 10:00am WorldCup2010 Soccer 30089 Neither team scores 4 or more goals 1st Half -5700* vs CIV / POR either team 4 or more goals
Pending 6/15/10 7:30am Halftime Soccer 10062 Any other result -7850* vs New Zealand 1 / Slovakia 3
Totals:

tltaylor89 · 06-15-10, 07:36 AM

Why didn't I think of this.

rm18 · 06-15-10, 07:40 AM

slovakia was probably a dumb play would of bet New Zealand did not win 3-0 if I would of woke up still longshot to lose of course

tltaylor89 · 06-15-10, 08:12 AM

This is great .

rm18 · 06-15-10, 09:52 AM

two winners down, just need the corner kick bet for the parlay

rm18 · 06-15-10, 01:18 PM

down to -670 somebody is trying to fade me

rm18 · 06-15-10, 02:06 PM

you got to be kidding me ball went square off N Korea guys head and they call a goal kick

acarmelo1 · 06-15-10, 02:55 PM

how is it going?

rm18 · 06-15-10, 03:00 PM

up 5-2 should be ok

rm18 · 06-15-10, 03:24 PM

ok we got $1293 in the fund, probably done for the day maybe a live bet on the NBA game

rm18 · 06-16-10, 04:23 AM

$1,293.00 $22.82 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 6/16/10 7:30am WorldCup2010 Soccer 507 Chile (World Cup)/Honduras (World Cup) Under 6½ -10950*
Pending 6/16/10 10:00am WorldCup2010 Soccer 20020 Any other result -22800* vs Spain HT / Switzerland FT
Pending 6/16/10 2:30pm WorldCup2010 Soccer 30086 Any other result -24800* vs South Africa 3 / Uruguay 3

stikymess · 06-16-10, 04:53 AM

Nice, thanks 4 the updates.

stealthyburrito · 06-16-10, 11:01 AM

the lock fund is growing

tltaylor89 · 06-16-10, 11:04 AM

Lol you would have won crazy money from Switzerland

rm18 · 06-17-10, 08:25 AM

took not 3-0 Greece and not 2-2 at the half for France/Mex

1315/17

ngates815 · 06-17-10, 08:36 AM

Where are you placing all these bets?

rm18 · 06-17-10, 08:39 AM

5 dimes

ngates815 · 06-17-10, 08:40 AM

I may start something like this with 500...If it loses no biggie, but it'd be fun to see what it grows to per month. with 1 - 3 bets per day. all winning between 5 - 12

can I use a debit card to deposit there? do you know

rm18 · 06-17-10, 08:47 AM

i think so but did not use that method

ngates815 · 06-17-10, 08:48 AM

Thanks guy...

ngates815 · 06-17-10, 09:46 AM

Where do you go to find these numbers?

For MLB...the under 20.5's

rm18 · 06-17-10, 10:07 AM

under props but it is only for national tv games

ngates815 · 06-17-10, 10:12 AM

ohhh ok...I was looking and couldn't find anything.

Thanks for the reply.

rm18 · 06-18-10, 01:04 AM

52899600-1 6/18/10 1:57am $1,332.00 $24.60 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 6/18/10 7:30am WorldCup2010 Soccer 10050 Any other result -29600* vs Germany 0 / Serbia 3
Pending 6/18/10 10:00am WorldCup2010 Soccer 20301 No player scores 3 or more goals -9650* vs Any player scores 3 or more goals
Pending 6/18/10 2:30pm WorldCup2010 Soccer 30020 Any other result -21600* vs England HT / Algeria FT

ngates815 · 06-18-10, 10:41 AM

Does it not let you parlay 2 different props for each soccer game? If you're going to parlay, do you have to do 3 seperate games?

I can't wait til I lose one of these....up 7% now after 1 day.

rm18 · 06-18-10, 11:05 AM

no you cant have two bets from the same game

ngates815 · 06-18-10, 11:11 AM

I tried doing it about 15 different times...then realized, I should just ask....

Thanks.

I also have your same play England HT/Algeria FT

therber2 · 06-19-10, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

I was curious to see how often 21 runs or more are scored. Not counting this year, but from 2000-2009 (22,511 games) (stats from cleanuphitter), there have been 467 games where 21 runs or more were scored:

21 161 0.0072
22 90 0.0040
23 69 0.0031
24 44 0.0020
25 30 0.0013
26 23 0.0010
27 17 0.0008
28 7 0.0003
29 7 0.0003
30 6 0.0003
31 6 0.0003
32 1 0.0000
33 3 0.0001
34 1 0.0000
35 1 0.0000
36 1 0.0000
Total: 467 0.020745413

With the above percentage for 1000 games, you would win 979 and lose 21.
At -8300, risking $1000 wins $12.04
979 Wins = $11,784 (979 x 12.04)
21 losses = -21,000
Net= -9,216

The odds should be closer to -4662

The above is without regard to starting pitchers, etc., and of course we know you're picking and choosing, and not blindly taking every game.

Good luck in your pursuit.

Very impressive analysis.

rm18 · 06-19-10, 01:03 AM

$1,356.00 $27.74 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 6/19/10 7:30am WorldCup2010 Soccer 10050 Any other result -49800* vs Netherlands 0 / Japan 3
Pending 6/19/10 10:00am WorldCup2010 Soccer 20050 Any other result -12550* vs Ghana 0 / Australia 3
Pending 6/19/10 2:30pm WorldCup2010 Soccer 30301 No player scores 3 or more goals -9650* vs Any player scores 3 or more goals

FreeFall · 06-19-10, 01:42 AM

Do you guys seriously not see the juice your paying on these lines? It's ridiculous. Your just enjoying winning all the time, but the one time you lose AND IT WILL HAPPEN your entire capital is gone.

Domestic · 06-19-10, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by FreeFall

Do you guys seriously not see the juice your paying on these lines? It's ridiculous. Your just enjoying winning all the time, but the one time you lose AND IT WILL HAPPEN your entire capital is gone.

I'm sure everyone understands this mate.

stealthyburrito · 06-19-10, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by FreeFall

Do you guys seriously not see the juice your paying on these lines? It's ridiculous. Your just enjoying winning all the time, but the one time you lose AND IT WILL HAPPEN your entire capital is gone.

you are sharp.

this little experiment is interesting, will see how it goes until it crashes.

then again it may never lose.