**Line Movements**

[chriscapper]

Hey guys, how or where would i go to see what the public is betting on....im tired of betting teams in the morning at -3 and seeing them drop to -2.5 or vice versa. Any help would be appreciated

[pico]

Hey guys, how or where would i go to see what the public is betting on....im tired of betting teams in the morning at -3 and seeing them drop to -2.5 or vice versa. Any help would be appreciated

http://www.sbrodds.com/

[bigboydan]

If you are looking for consensus percentages, then you might want to checkout Carib for that info. Just click on this link, and then click on at the top of the page.

[chriscapper]

Ohio U 56.42%
Akron 43.58%

So why the hell did the ohio line move down?? sharp money??

[louisvillekid]

i check a couple places, sports.com and i use the free service at sportsbookspy.com

[jjgold]

No way to determine who the public is on

[louisvillekid]

damn, i didn't know the pic was going to be that big!

[jon13009]

Try this site:

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

It is provided by Sports Insights for free.

Look to the graphs to the right hand side to get a timeline of spread movements.

[BigBollocks]

Guys "the public" doesn't mean jack shit. It's all dollar amounts and sometimes respect for the people betting into lines. In Vegas if 80% of our clients were on team A, but the 20% on team B had a larger amount wagered in total and included some highly regarded wise guys, we're moving to shade more against team B. If you're making your wagers based upon Sports Insights you'll break just about even over the course of a season (minus the subscription fee)...

[chriscapper]

Guys "the public" doesn't mean jack shit. It's all dollar amounts and sometimes respect for the people betting into lines. In Vegas if 80% of our clients were on team A, but the 20% on team B had a larger amount wagered in total and included some highly regarded wise guys, we're moving to shade more against team B. If you're making your wagers based upon Sports Insights you'll break just about even over the course of a season (minus the subscription fee)...

Exactly. So i guess there's no way to tell in what direction the line will move. B/c basically the public is always on the favorites anyway. But "sharps" in Vegas or whatever could have more money on the game (underdog in ths case) then the 80% public. So that "sharps" money would push the line, not the public.

[jon13009]

I agree betting only on public is not a smart thing to do, but the guy asked where can he get an idea where the public is betting.

I also agree that paying for Sports Insights data is a waste of money, but some sites are putting it out there for free ( a tease perhaps)

Basically if you want to handicap these games, and you want an idea where the public is going, why not ask?

After you handicap the games yourself, and determine what the line should be, then look at the lines posted by the books.

If the line looks fishy, then look where the public is betting to see if that line is moving the public that way.

Why?

"The linemaker is concerned about public perception because even though the line is designed to even the monetary action on wagers bet in the real world, that is not the case, as sports books always get stuck sitting on one side or the other. For simplicity's sake I will use a typical NFL Sunday as an example. Let's say there are thirteen games on an NFL Sunday, a sports book will have little betting action on four of those thirteen games, even money action on five of those thirteen games, where both sides are bet equally, and four games where the casino is sitting on one side of a game, as the public has made a one-sided wager on a particular team they favor. The linemaker has to win half of those four games where the public has bet on one-side to make money for the casino. In this example that means the casino has to win two of the four games the public has significant one-sided wagers on. So the linemaker is very concerned about public perception, as he wants to beat the public on these four games if possible and get at least half of them in the long run."

Source:

http://www.winnersedgeonline.com/point-spread-made.html

So, if you can identify lines that do not match up with your own handicapping analysis, feel that line is meant to drive the public in a certain way, then this is a game to look closely at - particularly in games where the home team is an underdog.

This is the basis for the fade the public take the home dog strategy (which are guys that take the easy way out and don't handicap the games, but look for where the public is going to identify those 3-4 games that vegas may want the public to go).

Fading the public doesn't always work (look at NE this year), but understanding it does exist (and why it exists) can be a means for making certain plays (see BUF v. BAL).

Yes, doing your own handicapping is the most important thing a bettor needs to do, but why ignore where the public is going when a handicapper needs to know all the information regarding a game when making a decision on how (or if) to bet that game.

If you disregard where the public is betting, fine, ignore it do your own handicapping and move on.

Also, forget about steam and fading the public plays that Sports Insights are trying to sell you because it is a waste of money. Looking for steam and trying to interpret line movements as steam plays are too difficult and left for the professionals.

But if you have an idea of why, where and when public information is important then why not use it. I am talking about understanding why Vegas makes lines regarding certain games and how and why understanding public betting patterns and perceptions can be an advantage to handicappers in those particular games.

GL.

[idontlikerocks]

finding out which way the public is betting is a good contra-indicator. just take a look at the prick contest , 2 out of 3 people are sub .500

[regularguy]

Well put, jon.