1. #36
    JIBBBY
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    Over and KC for me.

    I think both defenses get shreded and I think Maholmes is the more seasoned QB to win it all.

  2. #37
    CanuckG
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjsuax13 View Post
    Wow. 3 points book to book.
    essentially the same offer cause of the price.

  3. #38
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckyOne View Post
    The conversion works. There is no value anywhere here. over 26 1/2 +122/-132 converts to 23 1/2 -110/-102 Chiefs

    And under 24 1/2 =122/105 covers to 25 1/2 -110/-102 Eagles

    These numbers are about the same/no big deal. Think in terms of Pinnacle? They could be long with way and be happy. over 26 1/2 bets gives them under 26 1/2 -122 Or I think what they really want is betters to buy -132 juice and then they set with over 26 1/2 @ +132

    One thing I am positive about is Pinnacle does not make mistakes and they do not give away value this early.
    That's a great post, Bucky. Yes, the conversion on the juice just means that they're enticing bets.

    I haven't researched Team Totals much. Mostly b/c books use the extreme juice on that market.

  4. #39
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...When you put it together, considering Team Total push rates, the difference in team Totals may not be as much as it seems. There's a sweet spot here between 24 and 27 team total points that allows for a lot of wiggle room between 24.5 and 26.5.

    Enough wiggle room, in fact, to give the full game underdog more Teat Total points than the Favorite, with the proper pricing.

    Again, and it's worth repeating, at these numbers, expect the KC UNDER 26.5 (-132) to grow in price and the Philly OVER 24.5 (-122) to grow as well. By the prices moving so, these team totals become much closer than the actual score number indicates...
    We're seeing the KC UNDER 26.5 at -137 and the Philly OVER 24.5 up to -125, as expected.

    We're getting closer and closer to he proper conversion, which I said above was closer than it may seem to begin with.

    While it is in a period of evolution with the extension of the extra point and increased frequency of 2 point conversions, it is still true that not very many teams land on a Team Total of 26, and less than half of that will land on 25. Hence the wiggle room offered.


  5. #40
    KVB
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    Probably worth noting that the spread is now Philly -1 and the Total reamins the same at 49.5.

  6. #41
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Probably worth noting that the spread is now Philly -1 and the Total reamins the same at 49.5.
    after philly money comes the KC money. we only have 12 more days of this lol.

  7. #42
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Im looking at the Superbowl line at pinnacle

    KC +2-113
    Phi -2+102

    That's all good

    Now the team totals

    KC 26.5 over +122/under -132
    Phil 24.5 over -122/ under +105


    Anyone have insight why KC is higher despite being 2 point dogs?
    It's a little odd but look at the juice. O24.5-122 is higher than O26.5+122. 25 and 26 are somewhat dead numbers.

  8. #43
    Allure
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    Good input @KVB.

    Not sure if I'll have a wager myself. Kinda want to enjoy the game without being stressed about wagers.

    Gun to my head I'd take Philly 1H and KC full time. Low spread, higher TT for KC. Do the books speculate on a late Mahomes winning drive?

  9. #44
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    How many guys feel compelled to bet the Super Bowl...just b/c it's the Big Game?

    Only two events per year fall into that category, imho:
    1) The Super Bowl.
    2) The Kentucky Derby.

    IMHO, this game is lined very well. There is a thought that the Chiefs pulled one out w/ a short-handed roster 1x. Doing it again, very hard.

    The line looks perfect for two-way action. Talk to the books. I would think most are staring at action no heavier than 60/40, sitting on a winning ticket w/ very little swing either way.

  10. #45
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...When you put it together, considering Team Total push rates, the difference in team Totals may not be as much as it seems. There's a sweet spot here between 24 and 27 team total points that allows for a lot of wiggle room between 24.5 and 26.5.

    Enough wiggle room, in fact, to give the full game underdog more Teat Total points than the Favorite, with the proper pricing.

    Again, and it's worth repeating, at these numbers, expect the KC UNDER 26.5 (-132) to grow in price and the Philly OVER 24.5 (-122) to grow as well. By the prices moving so, these team totals become much closer than the actual score number indicates...
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    We're seeing the KC UNDER 26.5 at -137 and the Philly OVER 24.5 up to -125, as expected.

    We're getting closer and closer to he proper conversion, which I said above was closer than it may seem to begin with.

    While it is in a period of evolution with the extension of the extra point and increased frequency of 2 point conversions, it is still true that not very many teams land on a Team Total of 26, and less than half of that will land on 25. Hence the wiggle room offered.
    Now we have KC UNDER 26.5 at -140 and Philly OVER 24.5 up to -135, again as expected and much closer to the proper conversion.

    The Total as blinked as well and moved from 49.5 to 50.5, a little more in line with the Team Total expectations. The spread is still -1, but there is some pressure on the Philly side.

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  11. #46
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Now we have KC UNDER 26.5 at -140 and Philly OVER 24.5 up to -135, again as expected and much closer to the proper conversion.

    The Total as blinked as well and moved from 49.5 to 50.5, a little more in line with the Team Total expectations. The spread is still -1, but there is some pressure on the Philly side.

    Bookmaker at Phi -2-108/+2-112. Onshores pretty much all -1.5.

  12. #47
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Bookmaker at Phi -2-108/+2-112. Onshores pretty much all -1.5.
    Yes. To be clear, I was quoting Pinny's numbers there as they are the alt Team Total lines we were looking at and following in this thread.
    Last edited by KVB; 02-06-23 at 03:25 PM. Reason: alt line not quite right, but you get it.

  13. #48
    OldBill
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    ok 2 points aint goona get get you a cover if you betting on chiefs to lose by 1 point your dumb as a rock or eagles to win by 1

    the only superbowl i recall to finish with 1 point margin giants 20 bills 19 giants big 6.5 dog

  14. #49
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldBill View Post
    ok 2 points aint goona get get you a cover if you betting on chiefs to lose by 1 point your dumb as a rock or eagles to win by 1

    the only superbowl i recall to finish with 1 point margin giants 20 bills 19 giants big 6.5 dog
    Oh boy. Why do I feel like this could go down as legendary?

    I mean of course it's unlikely, but is it possible? Of course.

    It's neither dumb nor smart to choose spread or ML. All depends on the odds choices available to you. Like, yeah it would be dumb to bet KC ML +105 when you could instead take +2.5-110. Choosing ML for those options would be foolish. Or if you lay Phi ML -130 instead of -1.5-110. That would also be foolish.

  15. #50
    kingdom
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckyOne View Post
    The conversion works. There is no value anywhere here. over 26 1/2 +122/-132 converts to 23 1/2 -110/-102 Chiefs

    And under 24 1/2 =122/105 covers to 25 1/2 -110/-102 Eagles

    These numbers are about the same/no big deal. Think in terms of Pinnacle? They could be long with way and be happy. over 26 1/2 bets gives them under 26 1/2 -122 Or I think what they really want is betters to buy -132 juice and then they set with over 26 1/2 @ +132

    One thing I am positive about is Pinnacle does not make mistakes and they do not give away value this early.
    this is the best and most sensible answer. everyone over thinking it and making calculated guesses. on a side note, this game can be owned by the eagles o line and secondary if they are who they have been this season. eagles and niners were most balanced teams in the nfl. don't think the kc pass rush will have success they did against burrow with eagles o line.
    eagles only give up 170 pass ypg. kc is ranked 21 in rushing yards. defense wins championships, but when you have a balanced offense too, hard to beat. eagles will limit kelce and if mahomes goes deep he will get picked. eagles are +12 in turnover ratio compared to kc. tells you all you need to know when betting this game

  16. #51
    kingdom
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    How many guys feel compelled to bet the Super Bowl...just b/c it's the Big Game?

    Only two events per year fall into that category, imho:
    1) The Super Bowl.
    2) The Kentucky Derby.

    IMHO, this game is lined very well. There is a thought that the Chiefs pulled one out w/ a short-handed roster 1x. Doing it again, very hard.

    The line looks perfect for two-way action. Talk to the books. I would think most are staring at action no heavier than 60/40, sitting on a winning ticket w/ very little swing either way.
    good point. the avg gambler is betting on these events as normal. but the general public bets more on these big events. the derby brings out gamblers that don't even bet ponies because it is such an exciting and historical race. i wish more of the general public would bet the daytona 500. it's more like a lottery ticket and would increase viewership. betting a 20/1 is more exciting than a -110.

  17. #52
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    How many guys feel compelled to bet the Super Bowl...just b/c it's the Big Game?

    Only two events per year fall into that category, imho:
    1) The Super Bowl.
    2) The Kentucky Derby.

    IMHO, this game is lined very well. There is a thought that the Chiefs pulled one out w/ a short-handed roster 1x. Doing it again, very hard.

    The line looks perfect for two-way action. Talk to the books. I would think most are staring at action no heavier than 60/40, sitting on a winning ticket w/ very little swing either way.
    Yeah, I think this SB in particular is pretty balanced, and it would be quite easy for any book to shade and draw a little more action to one side or the other. The smart thing for a book to do in this game is to take volume. I'm actually surprised that none of the major onshores are offering some reduced juice. It would be so easy. Just hang Phi -1.5 at -108 both ways and the ML at -122/+106. Easy peasey and your customers will rave. Move the juice a few cents either way as needed.

    Edit: Fanduel does have the ML at -122/+104, so I guess that juice is slightly reduced.

  18. #53
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Im looking at the Superbowl line at pinnacle

    KC +2-113
    Phi -2+102

    That's all good

    Now the team totals

    KC 26.5 over +122/under -132
    Phil 24.5 over -122/ under +105


    Anyone have insight why KC is higher despite being 2 point dogs?

  19. #54
    lakerboy
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    Looks like chiefs over took some money. Philly over was actually -140 early today.

  20. #55
    coop-dog
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Looks like chiefs over took some money. Philly over was actually -140 early today.
    do you know which team the public is betting? i want to fade the public for the rig job

  21. #56
    D3 Mighty Ducks
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    Pub is on KC

  22. #57
    coop-dog
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    Quote Originally Posted by D3 Mighty Ducks View Post
    Pub is on KC
    how can u check that

  23. #58
    BiloxiSaintsFan
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    Quote Originally Posted by D3 Mighty Ducks View Post
    Pub is on KC
    More money and tickets are on the Eagles without question currently.

  24. #59
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by coop-dog View Post
    do you know which team the public is betting? i want to fade the public for the rig job
    No idea.

  25. #60
    lakerboy
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    Chefs over is even money now.

  26. #61
    budwiser
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    there is an old saying with the super bowl, it is the only game where money makes the line

    this year and last, pretty good job getting 50%

  27. #62
    goduke
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    Quote Originally Posted by goduke View Post
    Close your eyes hammer kc and count your money after the game. Iím not wrong here
    Winner

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