1. #1
    OldBill
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    HOW vegas creates the point spreads for NFL

    very complicated process

    Linemakers use a variety of methods to calculate their idea of the pointspread. Some use complicated computer programs that factor in recent performance, injuries, player match-ups, etc. Others simply have a feel for the games and produce a number out of thin air. However, most line makers use power ratings or some derivation.

    Power ratings involve assigning each team a numerical value based on performance and than comparing the ratings to generate a pointspread. For example, one set of ratings I saw this week had Miami rated 57 at home and Indianapolis rated 53 on the road, so the difference results in a 4 point line. Another set has Miami rated 77, Indianapolis rated 75, and gave a 3.5 point advantage to the home team so it predicted an opening line of 5. The actual line opened at 6 at some books, and was bet down quickly to 4.5, so it appears that 6 was too high. There are no standards for how to derive these ratings, and predicting actual outcomes with better accuracy than the majority of the betting public is your key to success.

    ( also use power ratings of Head coaches home filed defnse yards per play on offense)
    Some sportsbooks base all their lines on their own internal linemaking, but the majority of books rely either solely on oddsmaking services or a combination of external service and their own handicapping.

    BoDog Bookmakers handicap the games themselves, compare these results to the opening lines out of Vegas and then adjusts for the historical action of their own player base before coming up with a consensus opening number for each game. From there, the numbers are moved only to balance action or to account for special circumstances such as weather, injuries or the like.

    then brother they know you n me decades of reg squares we love to bet on top teams and when you do your paying premimum price in laying more points

    chiefs were a victim of this 5-12 ats i was sharp i faded them a ton

    Titans also bad with late season injuries

    colts with jeff saturady i cleaned up 8 str8 losses

    Ravens also buried everyone ats even a -3 spread win by 2

    Packers you always pay premiium price on them and every year it dosent change

    and the chargers were money all year 10-7 s/u 11-5 -1 ats

    texans wow 3-13 s/u but an amazing 8-9 ats

    Bills wow 13-3 s/u but 8-9 ats

    Bears 3-14 s/u and 5-12 ats lol

    tmpa bay 8-9 s/u and wow 4-13 ats

    imagine if you knew this before season strated

    start with ravens 6-10-1 you go 10-6 $10,340 net

    Colts 6-11 $11,440 net = $21780.00 net

    chiefs 5-11 you $11550.00 net = $33,330.00 net

    Broncos 7-10 ats $10230.00 =$43560.00 net in your pocket

    Bears 5-12 ats $12,650.00 =$56,210.00 in your bank account

    BUCS 4-13 ats $13860.00 =$70,070.00 in your pocket

    Saints 6-11 ats $11,440 = $81,510.00 in your wallets or rather suitcases

    Falcons 7-10 $10230.00 = $ 91,740.00

    and last but not least Seattle 7/10 ats $10230.00 = $101,970.00 for 4 months sep oct nov dec

    = $25,492.50 per month that like the mdian yearly salary for family of 3



    i think it will be same next year

  2. #2
    SlickFazzer
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    5dimes or someone comes out with the first line from a power rating. Market bangs it into place, all other books follow.

  3. #3
    jjgold
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    They copy offshore

  4. #4
    OldBill
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    i know for fact vegas do not copy off shore personally know sharps years ago we talked on phone every week he has to get his runners to grab people outside pay them $50 to place a 5000 wager simply because VEGAS knows the runners it's like fbi most wanted up on screens soon as they walk in

  5. #5
    InsiderHer
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    They copy offshore
    It never ceases to amaze me how ignorant you are of the industry you adopted over the decades. With every post, the credibility of SBR dips and that bar was already really low. Maybe its time for you to recheck your priorities and leave whatever miserable minimum wage job you have and move to Vegas to educate yourself. Don't worry, you'll fit in well with all the other stiffs and worthless wannabees.

  6. #6
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlickFazzer View Post
    5dimes or someone comes out with the first line from a power rating. Market bangs it into place, all other books follow.
    Billy, there's a lot of good information in here. A few basic truths:

    1) After the opener comes out, it can get pounded out pretty quickly.

    2) This is a catch-22 for NFL. On Sunday nite, the NFL injury information for the upcoming games is not close to being hammered out.

    3) Simple math game. Excluding key # of 3, most NFL half-points are worth AROUND 6-cents. If that's true, then you need to beat the close by ONE full point (6*2) to beat the -110.

    4) My opinion is that books are operating well within that margin MOST of the time. 11-to-win-10 is one hell of an edge.

    5) Good Luck, Billy. I'll be watching.

  7. #7
    VeggieDog
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  8. #8
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Billy, try pickin these games in advance. Very tough task.

  9. #9
    T100
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    like the recipe for KFC, we will never know for sure if these speculations are correct.
    the 2 best kept secrets of life are the kfc recipe and where the sports spread come from.

  10. #10
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by InsiderHer View Post
    It never ceases to amaze me how ignorant you are of the industry you adopted over the decades. With every post, the credibility of SBR dips and that bar was already really low. Maybe its time for you to recheck your priorities and leave whatever miserable minimum wage job you have and move to Vegas to educate yourself. Don't worry, you'll fit in well with all the other stiffs and worthless wannabees.
    Save your breath for cooling your porridge jj doesn't post here anymore

  11. #11
    stevenash
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    ^
    Gold is an entity.

  12. #12
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlickFazzer View Post
    5dimes or someone comes out with the first line from a power rating. Market bangs it into place, all other books follow.
    Betonline is who you mean I believe

  13. #13
    T100
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    ^^^^^back in the day,it was believed to be betcris^^^^^^^^^
    who knows FOR SURE now?

  14. #14
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by T100 View Post
    ^^^^^back in the day,it was believed to be betcris^^^^^^^^^
    who knows FOR SURE now?
    Interesting bio note.

  15. #15
    hehfest
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    Quote Originally Posted by InsiderHer View Post
    It never ceases to amaze me how ignorant you are of the industry you adopted over the decades. With every post, the credibility of SBR dips and that bar was already really low. Maybe its time for you to recheck your priorities and leave whatever miserable minimum wage job you have and move to Vegas to educate yourself. Don't worry, you'll fit in well with all the other stiffs and worthless wannabees.

    Why can't he bet from his home state. Only the best live in Vegas and bet? Pffffttttt.

  16. #16
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by T100 View Post
    ^^^^^back in the day,it was believed to be betcris^^^^^^^^^
    who knows FOR SURE now?
    Yeah I believe betonline moved into that space. Are we ever sure what the aliens are doing though, I guess not

  17. #17
    T100
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Interesting bio note.
    how so?

  18. #18
    Fishhead
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    When supervisor at the SANDS, we put up the first lines for NFL...............this was early 1990's

    Four of us collaborated in coming up with the opener.

  19. #19
    OldBill
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    Quote Originally Posted by T100 View Post
    ^^^^^back in the day,it was believed to be betcris^^^^^^^^^
    who knows FOR SURE now?
    yes BET CRIS advertised where the line originates ty ty ty

    local bookies used bet cris lines and adjusted for thier on players some were way off like instaed of - 6.5 they added 4 points making it -10.5 i'm laughing my ass off over the phone knowing he juiced that chalk too much i said ok give me the dog for 1 g

    he balks wait a min bill you never bet that much well you put up a bad line so i'm taking it

    then he says ok if you lose you owe me 1100 no problem i said just pay me on thurs

    wam dog walloped that putrid chalk 42 - 21

    Eagles @ Cowboys 1980 something

  20. #20
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by T100 View Post
    how so?
    Well, how does one get rejected by Cappersmall? Seems like an honor.

  21. #21
    Fishhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Well, how does one get rejected by Cappersmall? Seems like an honor.
    How does this compare to Bobby being booted at JERRY'S NUGGET??

  22. #22
    T100
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Well, how does one get rejected by Cappersmall? Seems like an honor.
    lol,

    https://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/rejected

  23. #23
    T100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead View Post
    How does this compare to Bobby being booted at JERRY'S NUGGET??
    not sure i wanna ask/know,,, "jerry`s nugget"???

  24. #24
    Fishhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by T100 View Post
    not sure i wanna ask/know,,, "jerry`s nugget"???
    Longtime casino in North Las Vegas..........nice little joint, just keep head on a swivel.

  25. #25
    stevenash
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  26. #26
    777_hotstreak
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldBill View Post
    i know for fact vegas do not copy off shore personally know sharps years ago we talked on phone every week he has to get his runners to grab people outside pay them $50 to place a 5000 wager simply because VEGAS knows the runners it's like fbi most wanted up on screens soon as they walk in
    FACTS!! Always looking for new runners...

  27. #27
    Fishhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by 777_hotstreak View Post
    FACTS!! Always looking for new runners...
    lol

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