1. #1
    TheMoneyShot
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    Tampa Bay Opens At -6 Now -3 What Happened?

    Did the odds makers make a mistake? Is there a ton of money on New Orleans? Is Tom Brady now feeling the effects of the divorce or FTX? lol Injuries? Someone sitting out? What the hell is going on?

    Details please.

  2. #2
    Kermit
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    Who is the RB for Tampa tonight? Rachaad White? I don't see any props for him.

  3. #3
    swordsandtequila
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    Lost another offensive lineman (their best), Tristan Wirfs out for a month. Half the defense is hurt. Team is in shambles. We still have the Lightning

  4. #4
    TheMoneyShot
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    Quote Originally Posted by swordsandtequila View Post
    Lost another offensive lineman (their best), Tristan Wirfs out for a month. Half the defense is hurt. Team is in shambles. We still have the Lightning
    Thanks for the report. Go Lightning!

  5. #5
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    Did the odds makers make a mistake? Is there a ton of money on New Orleans? Is Tom Brady now feeling the effects of the divorce or FTX? lol Injuries? Someone sitting out? What the hell is going on?

    Details please.
    I think the OT injury (Wirfs) is the big one.

    And, of course, Bucs are struggling in a bad division.

    As to why it's close to -3? Your call, I think the # is too short.

  6. #6
    BiloxiSaintsFan
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    TB isnít better than New Orleans talent wise. Theyíre very similar teams.

    Saints just have a bottom 5 head coach. If he stays out the way they win, if he gets too involved they lose. Itís that simple with this team

  7. #7
    iwantcougars
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    Quote Originally Posted by BiloxiSaintsFan View Post
    Saints just have a bottom 5 head coach. If he stays out the way they win, if he gets too involved they lose. It’s that simple with this team
    the same for tb and bowless

  8. #8
    TheMoneyShot
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    I think the OT injury (Wirfs) is the big one.

    And, of course, Bucs are struggling in a bad division.

    As to why it's close to -3? Your call, I think the # is too short.
    Line reminds me of Buffalo At New England. Buffalo opened at -6.... then came crashing down to Buffalo -3.5

    It's a little different... Buffalo favored Away team... Tampa Bay favored Home Team. I guess we can only learn from the result tonight. Odds makers know everything.... they even know if Brady got laid last night. To me a high school defense could stop Andy Dalton... but hey... what do I know?

  9. #9
    jjgold
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    New Orleans EASY

  10. #10
    Snowball
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    Huge game for Tampa

    Everything on the line

    This is It.

  11. #11
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    Line reminds me of Buffalo At New England. Buffalo opened at -6.... then came crashing down to Buffalo -3.5

    It's a little different... Buffalo favored Away team... Tampa Bay favored Home Team. I guess we can only learn from the result tonight. Odds makers know everything.... they even know if Brady got laid last night. To me a high school defense could stop Andy Dalton... but hey... what do I know?
    Ya, good stuff, Shot. My last comment:

    *Oddsmakers just don't set Big Favs anymore.

    I really think the oddsmaker approach has changed over the L20 years. Used to be that the oddsmaker would set the # as HIGH as they possibly could. Why not if MOST people are going to back the favorite?

    Now, it's more of a balance on people seeking out value. Your mid-level bettor knows you can't lay pts indiscriminately, so they seek out more Dogs. That's my explanation for why this # is not -5.

  12. #12
    TheMoneyShot
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Ya, good stuff, Shot. My last comment:

    *Oddsmakers just don't set Big Favs anymore.

    I really think the oddsmaker approach has changed over the L20 years. Used to be that the oddsmaker would set the # as HIGH as they possibly could. Why not if MOST people are going to back the favorite?

    Now, it's more of a balance on people seeking out value. Your mid-level bettor knows you can't lay pts indiscriminately, so they seek out more Dogs. That's my explanation for why this # is not -5.
    My initial reaction to the Tampa Bay -6 opening line was like.... a deer in headlights. Nothing made me want to jump on New Orleans +6 though. And I take underdogs frequently. I thought it was rather high. Typically high for a reason. Sure Tampa Bay could win by 1 or 2 points. It happens.

  13. #13
    BiloxiSaintsFan
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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantcougars View Post
    the same for tb and bowless
    Bowles isnít the head coach though

    Tom Brady is. He calls the shots and has since the bye week his first season with Tampa

  14. #14
    iwantcougars
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Used to be that the oddsmaker would set the # as HIGH as they possibly could. Why not if MOST people are going to back the favorite?

    Now, it's more of a balance on people seeking out value. Your mid-level bettor knows you can't lay pts indiscriminately, so they seek out more Dogs. That's my explanation for why this # is not -5.

    live betting change that, there are more opportunities for middling

  15. #15
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    ...I really think the oddsmaker approach has changed over the L20 years. Used to be that the oddsmaker would set the # as HIGH as they possibly could. Why not if MOST people are going to back the favorite?...
    You're talking about shading the line, which is still done today but almost never done right at the opener to any extreme, or what I consider dirty (because it takes advantage of ingorant market participants).

    This occurs more often in line movement for a number of reasons, the most basic of which I'll share.

    A rising line (regardless of direction) at the right time can lead to gathering steam which leads to steam chasing, which leads to a higher handle without messing with the hold. That steam isn't always "sharp money" and the books know the type of action they are getting. It's one of many intentional manipualations and I share this one openly because I've talked about many times in the past when posting season long plays and analysis.

    The video I made in the Think Tank, "Knowing Your Markets" explains lagging and leading no vig lines and how to identify them. Often this attempot to gather "steam bets" gets halted by the sharp money on the other side.

    This could not happen unless the opener was intentionally off to create the action or market participants manipulate and push the line too far a certain direction.

    Sometimes the bettors are in control, and sometime they just think they are as the book will step in and exhibit behaviors to influnece the bettors.

    This part of the market will never, ever go away. It's the nature of the need to satisfy the public action while balancing the sharper action and plays into human behavior, which never changes.

    Watch the video, if you want to learn how it's done and learn what the hold is as well.

  16. #16
    Booya711
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    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: stake1

  17. #17
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post

  18. #18
    MaltedHopsFrenzy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    Who is the RB for Tampa tonight? Rachaad White? I don't see any props for him.
    Fournette…..

  19. #19
    stake1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    oh no. crushed the bucs.


  20. #20
    gauchojake
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    If my aunt had Bowles she's be my uncle


    oooooohhhh


    Where is resident TAMPA honk fireindaholer?

  21. #21
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Huge game for Tampa

    Everything on the line

    This is It.
    This

    tgo they can lose and win div but w tough gms ahead they will get this one

  22. #22
    SamsNCharge99
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    Dalton 0-12 prime time

  23. #23
    Halfapointoff
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    What the??? You guys are weird. Holy crap. Pick a side and bet. You humans over think shit and come up with fairy tales that sound good to you. Just do this and stop thinking. Slam the over 41.5. You’re welcome. Lock of the century.

  24. #24
    flakeandbake
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    Quote Originally Posted by Halfapointoff View Post
    What the??? You guys are weird. Holy crap. Pick a side and bet. You humans over think shit and come up with fairy tales that sound good to you. Just do this and stop thinking. Slam the over 41.5. You’re welcome. Lock of the century.
    Iíll thank myself for only putting $140 on the over and not more

  25. #25
    jjgold
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    Sharps new

  26. #26
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    Did the odds makers make a mistake? Is there a ton of money on New Orleans? Is Tom Brady now feeling the effects of the divorce or FTX? lol Injuries? Someone sitting out? What the hell is going on?

    Details please.
    the saints own tampa only reason they lost early in the season was all the late defensive penalties called on them... all of them were fake the refs walked Tampa down the field

  27. #27
    Otters27
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    I don't see how Brady can play next year

  28. #28
    Booya711
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    Quote Originally Posted by Halfapointoff View Post
    What the??? You guys are weird. Holy crap. Pick a side and bet. You humans over think shit and come up with fairy tales that sound good to you. Just do this and stop thinking. Slam the over 41.5. You’re welcome. Lock of the century.
    Johnny 2.0

  29. #29
    stake1
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    Refs and nfl gave bucs the shot for the win. major no calls on the last two drives, blatant holds on almost every pass play

  30. #30
    matt711
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    Quote Originally Posted by Halfapointoff View Post
    What the??? You guys are weird. Holy crap. Pick a side and bet. You humans over think shit and come up with fairy tales that sound good to you. Just do this and stop thinking. Slam the over 41.5. You’re welcome. Lock of the century.
    When’s last time you won?, Nevermind just seen South Carolina play

  31. #31
    Yulia74
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    brady should retire

  32. #32
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Otters27 View Post
    I don't see how Brady can play next year
    He could play next year if he wants as he has a great offensive line that really protects him. Brady seldomly gets hit hard or sacked.

  33. #33
    stake1
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    He could play next year if he wants as he has a great offensive line that really protects him. Brady seldomly gets hit hard or sacked.
    and for good reason. he gets unbelievable no-calls from the refs:

    Smith was holding on pretty much every pass play down the stretch. Except, of course, when Brady got rid of the ball before Smith could actually do it.


    On the game-winning touchdown, Smith got away with a hold. It wasnít obvious, but it was a hold.


    During the prior drive, he got away with one of the most blatant uncalled holds youíll ever see.


    With five minutes left, and with the Bucs facing first and 10 from their own 22, Smith performed a full-blown bear hug ó from behind ó of Saints defensive lineman Carl Granderson. It was so blatant that it was comical. And it wasnít called. It wasnít even mentioned during the broadcast. (We know that the guys in the booth can only see so much. But they have other eyes watching the action. And it didnít take more than one marginally-functional eye to see that hold.)

  34. #34
    Halfapointoff
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    Johnny 2.0
    If any of you all had a brain you would slam rams plus the points. They were +6.5 dogs. They will cover that. So live is even better value, but it doesn’t matter, because they will cover the 6.5. This is what I do. Don’t be a retard. Do what I say, and you will make money.

  35. #35
    StackinGreen
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    Quote Originally Posted by stake1 View Post
    Refs and nfl gave bucs the shot for the win. major no calls on the last two drives, blatant holds on almost every pass play
    Yup. The good thing is that it sets up the easy money of the week, Purdy all day.

    By the way Halfapointoff, I had Rams too.

    Now on to World Cup again and more winning.

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