[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'd lay out the parameters as such:
1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
2) Totals are fair game.
3) Quote a current price (vs -110 line or better). Can't just say "Team A".
4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good record overall. But it's been on the decline. Optimistic of a bounce-back week.

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
YTD: 67-42 ATS (.615)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 262 GREEN BAY +5.5

(Fading DALLAS). +5.5 available at -110, +5 is OK.

Matchup looks one-sided. Dallas playing well, Prescott has looked solid upon return. Do they merit this level of favoritism?

Packers off five straight losses. QB is unlikable, HC is too young. Packers look un-bettable.

How can it get any worse? I do think their defense can match up and play a competitive game.

On paper, looks like no shot. That's why they play the games.

[pologq]

chuck since you did packers i am doing browns +3.5. they will run on the dolphins and keep it close. i thought this spread would be bigger and it is not. i think it should be 5. dolphins play no D and i can see a fg game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chuck since you did packers i am doing browns +3.5. they will run on the dolphins and keep it close. i thought this spread would be bigger and it is not. i think it should be 5. dolphins play no D and i can see a fg game.

Thanks for posting, Polo! I'll mark you down on the Browns.

Good Luck. Agree with you. Should be a fun game, contrast in styles (if you will).

[agendaman]

chucky some of these nfl teams are worse than their record indicates. e.g titans -total offense ia derrick henry.chargers-w/o k.allen and m.williams only eckler.why would anybody trade davante adams and tyreke hill.iat least 5 or 6 teams have regressed a lot.this entire nfl season will be the year of underdogs.p.s do any of you guys play some DFS with your sportsbetting.i do as a hedge.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agenda, that's why it's challenging AND fun. You try to analyze everything and come to a conclusion.

Once the game kicks off, it's up to the Gods of Gambling. They'll determine the outcome.

Re the teams you listed:
*Chargers - have a talented roster. They've been hit by injuries. While it looks like they've under-achieved...they've won some CLOSE games so their S/U record is not bad.

*Titans - really a unique test case. Listen to his recent press conferences. He's 100% transparent on their direct style of offense. Can they continue to have success like that? I thought the Lewan injury would hurt them but they've handled that. I do question how banged up Tannehill must be.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to playoff standings:

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...yoff_standings

Try to figure out how this might play out:
*Will the DIV champ from AFC South and/or NFC South wind up with a record of .500 or less?

[Nate rasta]

Tennessee -2.5

Opened at -3 now -2.5 could go down more. I'm going opposite of line movement here. Tennessee's defenses is for real I know they're playing with the backup qb most likely. Tennessee keeps getting disrespected with the line and they keep on covering

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tennessee -2.5

Opened at -3 now -2.5 could go down more. I'm going opposite of line movement here. Tennessee's defenses is for real I know they're playing with the backup qb most likely. Tennessee keeps getting disrespected with the line and they keep on covering

Good Luck, Nate. Nate going for 8-0, boys. He's 7-0 ATS ytd in this thread (w/ one push last week).

[ConleyPicks]

Hi guys

First time this year posting in here I hope that I can be of help/assistance here

Liking Jacksonville+9.5 (-110 Bet mgm) as I don't think KC has it in them to cover this game and feel like it could be a back and forth game

Not saying that KC can't win it is just that they either can win big or can't win vs "bad" teams at home

KC wins but don't think covering is in their favour this weekend

Few trends:
Play against Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games
(26-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.7%, +22.7 units)

Play on Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in November games.
(147-87 since 1983.) (62.8%, +51.3 units)

Play against Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games.
(35-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +27.3 units)

KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 23.8, OPPONENT 24.2

KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 25.1, OPPONENT 25.8

KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 24.2, OPPONENT 24.3

KANSAS CITY is 1-16 ATS (-16.6 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 24.7, OPPONENT 25.9

Reid is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 21.3, OPPONENT 20.0

Reid is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less as the coach of KANSAS CITY.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 23.9, OPPONENT 24.1

Reid is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games as the coach of KANSAS CITY.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 26.0, OPPONENT 24.8

Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 98 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 74 times.

Over the last 3 seasons, the road underdog has covered the spread 5 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 4 times. Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 8 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 5 times. Over the last 3 seasons, the road underdog has covered the spread 2 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 0 times. The betting public is correct when moving the money line in JACKSONVILLE games 52.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (20-18)

Lots to digest but here is hoping the Jaguars and Lawrence can cover in KC! Best of luck!

[pologq]

good stuff conley

if the chiefs were -7 or less i would have bet them easily. i can see some backdoor action in that game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks, Conley. GL on the Jags.

Will start the Summary tonite. Thanks to all for contributing.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

TEN: Tannehill. Limited practice. Maybe he goes this week:

https://www.rotowire.com/football/pr...t.php?team=TEN

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks:

243 Jax +9.5
251 Cle +3.5
256 Ten -2.5
262 GBAY +5.5

Nate caught the dip on Tenn.

Thx for posting, boys. Makes for a nice view on how to play the Sunday card.

All on the half-pt so far, no pushes. Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.rotowire.com/football/pr...t.php?team=TEN

Tannehill: practiced Thurs, limited on Friday. How sharp could he possibly be?

Another key injury note. IND LB Leonard back on IR. More negative vibes for the Indy/Raid game.

[jackpot269]

Fading 49'ers

Taking the chargers and the 7.5. Chargers have disappointed all year and its about time for a big game.

I look for a lot of points in this prime-time game!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Fading 49'ers

Taking the chargers and the 7.5. Chargers have disappointed all year and its about time for a big game.

I look for a lot of points in this prime-time game!

Thanks, Jack, looks good. Gonna have to mark you down for +7, tho, if that's OK. +7.5 priced a good bit higher than -110.

Thanks for posting. Have a nice wkend. I'll personally be looking for how they do at CB w/o Jackson, has to be an upgrade (imho) - he was playing hurt.

[agendaman]

well here i go again folks.my pick this week is-washington vs.eagles over 43.5 total at -110.i mean hurts a.g brown dav. smith and gostart will garner pts.wash. maybe 17 or so.eagles around 30.why not.p.s n.y giants now down to -4.5 from -6.5.gl all.

[TheRedZone]

Wasn't many picks last week as there usually is. I hope we get more participants

[klemopixx]

Commanders +10.5

This is an NFC East division game which is always a tighter matchup than you expect. Eagles already jumped on Washington in Week Three 24-8 but that was with Carson "The Statue" Wentz behind center. Commanders had won three in a row before falling to the Vikings by a field goal last week. The defense has always been physical. Philly is missing their run stopper Jordan Davis for a few weeks and Avonte Maddox their slot corner is unlikely to play. To top it off his replacement, Josiah Scott is also banged up. This could be a major problem. Look for Curtis Samuel to have a big night. The Philly offense will continue to roll but I fully expect the Commanders to hang close. I also expect the over (43.5) to be in play.

[jackpot269]

Thanks, Jack, looks good. Gonna have to mark you down for +7, tho, if that's OK. +7.5 priced a good bit higher than -110.

Thanks for posting. Have a nice wkend. I'll personally be looking for how they do at CB w/o Jackson, has to be an upgrade (imho) - he was playing hurt.

Thanks again for this thread, I stop by often, usually before and after I put my pick in and see what's going on in here!
Last week was the exception not the rule, we get back on top this week!

Chucky is the man!! Top 3 poster at SBR! He would get my vote for #1 if we had a vote! I sure miss sbr poker!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Commanders +10.5

This is an NFC East division game which is always a tighter matchup than you expect. Eagles already jumped on Washington in Week Three 24-8 but that was with Carson "The Statue" Wentz behind center. Commanders had won three in a row before falling to the Vikings by a field goal last week. The defense has always been physical. Philly is missing their run stopper Jordan Davis for a few weeks and Avonte Maddox their slot corner is unlikely to play. To top it off his replacement, Josiah Scott is also banged up. This could be a major problem. Look for Curtis Samuel to have a big night. The Philly offense will continue to roll but I fully expect the Commanders to hang close. I also expect the over (43.5) to be in play.

Thx, Agenda and Klemo. Will add these in. Good Luck!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks again for this thread, I stop by often, usually before and after I put my pick in and see what's going on in here!
Last week was the exception not the rule, we get back on top this week!

Chucky is the man!! Top 3 poster at SBR! He would get my vote for #1 if we had a vote! I sure miss sbr poker!!

Thanks, Jack! Appreciate it.

Trying my best to do some damage. Hope the Gods of Gambling are kind to us this week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks:

243 Jax +9.5
251 Cle +3.5
256 Ten -2.5
262 GBAY +5.5
263 Chargers +7
265 Wash +10.5
265/266 Wash/PHI: over 43.5

Thanks to all for contributing. Good Luck.

[calamity sue]

First time posting here on this thread and I can't say I read this thread every week, but now that I've found it, I will.

No one has mentioned the Steelers here as yet. They are my top pick with the return of JJ Watt. The Saints will be missing as many as 7 starters on Sunday. This should be an easy win for the home underdog Tomlin. I'm going with the ml at even but most places are at +1. BOL to all.

[OldBill]

tenn is in bad depreesed mode losing by 3 points as big dog at chiefs in O T is never good for any team it when the worst teams win

and now getting rested Broncos team at home - 2.5 points titans have 6 players out

DB Thompson LB Cunnigham DB Hooker LB DUPREE DT SIMMONS WR Phillips oct 25th

Denver FB Beck LB Browning WR Hamler C Cushenberry but having a bye week they get plenty of time to prepare vs titans

broncos is - 11 points over 8 games Titans are -9 points over 8 games denver - 1.375 per game ok make it - 1.5 titans titans - 1.125 per game ok make it -1 1.5 - 1 = denver - .05 as a pckem now add spread in titans are - 3.5 denver is +0.5 titans are - 3 vs the spread

i dont care if they playing in a parking lot i think denver can win it vs whoever is QB for Titans

[OldBill]

First time posting here on this thread and I can't say I read this thread every week, but now that I've found it, I will.

No one has mentioned the Steelers here as yet. They are my top pick with the return of JJ Watt. The Saints will be missing as many as 7 starters on Sunday. This should be an easy win for the home underdog Tomlin. I'm going with the ml at even but most places are at +1. BOL to all.

ty Sue for this i havent looked at every time but steelrs needn help on offense lowest averge points per game in league 15.4

saints maybe bounce back with red rifle

[OldBill]

ah one thing wash vs eagles whoever covers spread1st matchup goes other way 2nd matchup like almost 100% of time but now bd news with goodell and wash owner snyder

[agendaman]

chucky i believe your green bay pick will be good.i see where aaron jones and wr. lazard are both playing now.game is outdoors probably cold and packers have lost 5 straight.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Commanders +10.5

This is an NFC East division game which is always a tighter matchup than you expect. Eagles already jumped on Washington in Week Three 24-8 but that was with Carson "The Statue" Wentz behind center. Commanders had won three in a row before falling to the Vikings by a field goal last week. The defense has always been physical. Philly is missing their run stopper Jordan Davis for a few weeks and Avonte Maddox their slot corner is unlikely to play. To top it off his replacement, Josiah Scott is also banged up. This could be a major problem. Look for Curtis Samuel to have a big night. The Philly offense will continue to roll but I fully expect the Commanders to hang close. I also expect the over (43.5) to be in play.

Klemo, this is very good info. Thx for posting.

I listen to WASH radio a good bit. I can say they have some real studs on Defense.

Juxtapose that with what you write about about some of the Eagle defensive standouts being banged up.

Good Luck on the play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky i believe your green bay pick will be good.i see where aaron jones and wr. lazard are both playing now.game is outdoors probably cold and packers have lost 5 straight.

Hoping, Agenda. All we can do is try to get it in good.

I could list about 7 subtle factors on why GBay was a value pick. Weather (that you listed) is one of them:

*Won't be frigid. But GBay should be more accustomed to 34* than Dallas.

Dallas isn't tropical. But I can't imagine them enjoying the cold on Sunday.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks:

243 Jax +9.5
248 PIT +1
251 Cle +3.5
255 Den +2.5...with: 256 Ten -2.5
262 GBAY +5.5
263 Chargers +7
265 Wash +10.5
265/266 Wash/PHI: over 43.5

Thanks to all for contributing. Good Luck.

Thank you, Sue and Bill. Marking your picks down. Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nate is looking to stay undefeated w/ TEN. Bill counters that pick w/ DEN.

Enjoy the games. Should be a fun day.

[TheLock]

First time posting here on this thread and I can't say I read this thread every week, but now that I've found it, I will.

No one has mentioned the Steelers here as yet. They are my top pick with the return of JJ Watt. The Saints will be missing as many as 7 starters on Sunday. This should be an easy win for the home underdog Tomlin. I'm going with the ml at even but most places are at +1. BOL to all.

Welcome to the thread, Calamity.

I’m not trying to be combative with you but in the spirit of this specific thread, all the reasons you listed as why the Steelers are a play are actually the opposite of contrarian (JJ Watt returning, the Saints missing as many as 7 starters, this should be an “easy” win).

Best of luck to everyone this week.