[OldBill]

i'll post here for you all to use 1st two weeks simple math guys points scored vs points against

added to past say you have a team that scored 450 gave up 320 450-320 = +130 div by 17 weeks =+7.64 ppg

now they home vs a team that like bottom feeder that got waxed all year scored 250 gave up 490 negative 240 pts div. by 17 weeks = -14.11 per game

so when you have negative vs pos numbers add together to get difference between two teams or 2 points like on graph

-14.11 +7.64 = 21.75 points this most times has come out to = the margin of victory

ok so -14 - +8 = -6

the line is fav team is chalked by 6 ok road dog is now -8 home fav is +2 bam perfect number

the only thing that i count is what goes up on board team scored 21 gave up 10 they are +11

add em up every week but it's done for U auto in standings over at covers

how many times every year i caught vegas screwed up team favored away @ DIV rival 2nd game of year - 14 lost s/u final week no playoffs

it's there every year and you can just see it coming again

i can go back like 20 years and see miami destroyed pats in 2nd game when at home and most assuraedly see it happen again

eagles own the JETS and steelers since 1965 steel hasnt won @ Eagles

but Eagles after beating steelers go poof next game 100% s/u and ats

ok heres standings all 32 teams from last year

2021-2022
American Football Conference
AFC East W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Buffalo 11 6 0 483 289 6-3-0 5-3-0 7-5-0 4-1-0 5-1-0 9-6-2 8-9-0

X - New England 10 7 0 462 303 4-5-0 6-2-0 8-4-0 2-3-0 3-3-0 10-7-0 9-8-0

Miami 9 8 0 341 373 6-3-0 3-5-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 4-2-0 9-7-1 7-10-0

N.Y. Jets 4 13 0 310 504 3-6-0 1-7-0 4-8-0 0-5-0 0-6-0 6-11-0 10-7-0

AFC North W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Cincinnati 10 7 0 460 376 5-4-0 5-3-0 8-4-0 2-3-0 4-2-0 10-7-0 8-9-0

X - Pittsburgh 9 7 1 343 398 6-2-1 3-5-0 7-5-0 2-2-1 4-2-0 8-9-0 6-11-0

Cleveland 8 9 0 349 371 6-3-0 2-6-0 5-7-0 3-2-0 3-3-0 7-10-0 7-10-0

Baltimore 8 9 0 387 392 5-4-0 3-5-0 5-7-0 3-2-0 1-5-0 8-9-0 8-9-0


AFC South W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Tennessee 12 5 0 419 354 7-2-0 5-3-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 5-1-0 10-7-0 8-9-0


Indianapolis 9 8 0 451 365 4-5-0 5-3-0 7-5-0 2-3-0 3-3-0 10-7-0 8-9-0

Houston 4 13 0 280 452 2-7-0 2-6-0 4-8-0 0-5-0 3-3-0 8-9-0 8-9-0

Jacksonville 3 14 0 253 457 3-6-0 0-8-0 3-9-0 0-5-0 1-5-0 5-12-0 5-12-0


AFC West W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Kansas City 12 5 0 480 364 7-2-0 5-3-0 7-5-0 5-0-0 5-1-0 8-9-0 10-7-0

X - Las Vegas 10 7 0 374 439 5-4-0 5-3-0 8-4-0 2-3-0 3-3-0 8-9-0 8-9-0

L.A. Chargers 9 8 0 474 459 5-4-0 4-4-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 3-3-0 8-9-0 10-7-0

Denver 7 10 0 335 322 4-5-0 3-5-0 3-9-0 4-1-0 1-5-0 8-9-0 5-12-0



National Football Conference
NFC East W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Dallas 12 5 0 530 358 5-3-0 7-2-0 10-2-0 2-3-0 6-0-0 13-4-0 8-9-0

X - Philadelphia 9 8 0 444 385 3-5-0 6-3-0 7-5-0 2-3-0 3-3-0 8-8-1 10-7-0

Washington 7 10 0 335 434 3-5-0 4-5-0 6-6-0 1-4-0 2-4-0 7-9-1 7-10-0

N.Y. Giants 4 13 0 258 416 3-5-0 1-8-0 3-9-0 1-4-0 1-5-0 6-11-0 5-11-1

NFC North W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Green Bay 13 4 0 450 371 8-0-0 5-4-0 9-3-0 4-1-0 4-2-0 12-5-0 8-9-0


Minnesota 8 9 0 425 426 5-3-0 3-6-0 6-6-0 2-3-0 4-2-0 9-8-0 11-6-0

Chicago 6 11 0 311 407 3-5-0 3-6-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 2-4-0 6-11-0 7-10-0

Detroit 3 13 1 325 467 3-5-0 0-8-1 3-9-0 0-4-1 2-4-0 11-6-0 7-10-0


NFC South W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Tampa Bay 13 4 0 511 353 7-1-0 6-3-0 8-4-0 5-0-0 4-2-0 9-8-0 9-8-0


New Orleans 9 8 0 364 335 3-5-0 6-3-0 7-5-0 2-3-0 4-2-0 9-8-0 7-10-0

Atlanta 7 10 0 313 459 2-6-0 5-4-0 4-8-0 3-2-0 2-4-0 6-10-1 7-10-0

Carolina 5 12 0 304 404 2-6-0 3-6-0 3-9-0 2-3-0 2-4-0 5-12-0 8-9-0


NFC West W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - L.A. Rams 12 5 0 460 372 5-3-0 7-2-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 3-3-0 8-9-0 9-7-1


X - Arizona 11 6 0 449 366 3-5-0 8-1-0 7-5-0 4-1-0 4-2-0 10-7-0 8-9-0


X - San Francisco 10 7 0 427 365 4-4-0 6-3-0 7-5-0 3-2-0 2-4-0 9-8-0 8-9-0

Seattle 7 10 0 395 366 3-5-0 4-5-0 4-8-0 3-2-0 3-3-0 9-8-0 6-11-0



* Z - Clinched Home Field Advantage.
* Y - Clinched Division.
* X - Clinched Wild Card.

[kidcudi92]

You are actually retarded

[OldBill]

Las Vegas 10 7 0 374 439

-----------------------------------PF---PA omg no wonder they lost in PO's they were negative -65 total - 4 ppg

osted the results when teams scor 500 points or more in season bad news in all SB's and po's

Dallas 12 5 0 530 358

and


Tampa Bay 13 4 0 511 353

[pologq]

i am lost. way too much at once, sorry bill.

[jjgold]

Nothing matters but getting a great number always remember that

[RangeFinder]

i'll post here for you all to use 1st two weeks simple math guys points scored vs points against

added to past say you have a team that scored 450 gave up 320 450-320 = +130 div by 17 weeks =+7.64 ppg

now they home vs a team that like bottom feeder that got waxed all year scored 250 gave up 490 negative 240 pts div. by 17 weeks = -14.11 per game

so when you have negative vs pos numbers add together to get difference between two teams or 2 points like on graph

-14.11 +7.64 = 21.75 points this most times has come out to = the margin of victory

ok so -14 - +8 = -6

the line is fav team is chalked by 6 ok road dog is now -8 home fav is +2 bam perfect number

the only thing that i count is what goes up on board team scored 21 gave up 10 they are +11

add em up every week but it's done for U auto in standings over at covers

how many times every year i caught vegas screwed up team favored away @ DIV rival 2nd game of year - 14 lost s/u final week no playoffs

it's there every year and you can just see it coming again

i can go back like 20 years and see miami destroyed pats in 2nd game when at home and most assuraedly see it happen again

eagles own the JETS and steelers since 1965 steel hasnt won @ Eagles

but Eagles after beating steelers go poof next game 100% s/u and ats

ok heres standings all 32 teams from last year

2021-2022
American Football Conference
AFC East W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Buffalo 11 6 0 483 289 6-3-0 5-3-0 7-5-0 4-1-0 5-1-0 9-6-2 8-9-0

X - New England 10 7 0 462 303 4-5-0 6-2-0 8-4-0 2-3-0 3-3-0 10-7-0 9-8-0

Miami 9 8 0 341 373 6-3-0 3-5-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 4-2-0 9-7-1 7-10-0

N.Y. Jets 4 13 0 310 504 3-6-0 1-7-0 4-8-0 0-5-0 0-6-0 6-11-0 10-7-0

AFC North W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Cincinnati 10 7 0 460 376 5-4-0 5-3-0 8-4-0 2-3-0 4-2-0 10-7-0 8-9-0

X - Pittsburgh 9 7 1 343 398 6-2-1 3-5-0 7-5-0 2-2-1 4-2-0 8-9-0 6-11-0

Cleveland 8 9 0 349 371 6-3-0 2-6-0 5-7-0 3-2-0 3-3-0 7-10-0 7-10-0

Baltimore 8 9 0 387 392 5-4-0 3-5-0 5-7-0 3-2-0 1-5-0 8-9-0 8-9-0


AFC South W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Tennessee 12 5 0 419 354 7-2-0 5-3-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 5-1-0 10-7-0 8-9-0


Indianapolis 9 8 0 451 365 4-5-0 5-3-0 7-5-0 2-3-0 3-3-0 10-7-0 8-9-0

Houston 4 13 0 280 452 2-7-0 2-6-0 4-8-0 0-5-0 3-3-0 8-9-0 8-9-0

Jacksonville 3 14 0 253 457 3-6-0 0-8-0 3-9-0 0-5-0 1-5-0 5-12-0 5-12-0


AFC West W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Kansas City 12 5 0 480 364 7-2-0 5-3-0 7-5-0 5-0-0 5-1-0 8-9-0 10-7-0

X - Las Vegas 10 7 0 374 439 5-4-0 5-3-0 8-4-0 2-3-0 3-3-0 8-9-0 8-9-0

L.A. Chargers 9 8 0 474 459 5-4-0 4-4-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 3-3-0 8-9-0 10-7-0

Denver 7 10 0 335 322 4-5-0 3-5-0 3-9-0 4-1-0 1-5-0 8-9-0 5-12-0



National Football Conference
NFC East W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Dallas 12 5 0 530 358 5-3-0 7-2-0 10-2-0 2-3-0 6-0-0 13-4-0 8-9-0

X - Philadelphia 9 8 0 444 385 3-5-0 6-3-0 7-5-0 2-3-0 3-3-0 8-8-1 10-7-0

Washington 7 10 0 335 434 3-5-0 4-5-0 6-6-0 1-4-0 2-4-0 7-9-1 7-10-0

N.Y. Giants 4 13 0 258 416 3-5-0 1-8-0 3-9-0 1-4-0 1-5-0 6-11-0 5-11-1

NFC North W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Green Bay 13 4 0 450 371 8-0-0 5-4-0 9-3-0 4-1-0 4-2-0 12-5-0 8-9-0


Minnesota 8 9 0 425 426 5-3-0 3-6-0 6-6-0 2-3-0 4-2-0 9-8-0 11-6-0

Chicago 6 11 0 311 407 3-5-0 3-6-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 2-4-0 6-11-0 7-10-0

Detroit 3 13 1 325 467 3-5-0 0-8-1 3-9-0 0-4-1 2-4-0 11-6-0 7-10-0


NFC South W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - Tampa Bay 13 4 0 511 353 7-1-0 6-3-0 8-4-0 5-0-0 4-2-0 9-8-0 9-8-0


New Orleans 9 8 0 364 335 3-5-0 6-3-0 7-5-0 2-3-0 4-2-0 9-8-0 7-10-0

Atlanta 7 10 0 313 459 2-6-0 5-4-0 4-8-0 3-2-0 2-4-0 6-10-1 7-10-0

Carolina 5 12 0 304 404 2-6-0 3-6-0 3-9-0 2-3-0 2-4-0 5-12-0 8-9-0


NFC West W L T PF PA Home Away Conf Non Conf Div ATS O/U
X - L.A. Rams 12 5 0 460 372 5-3-0 7-2-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 3-3-0 8-9-0 9-7-1


X - Arizona 11 6 0 449 366 3-5-0 8-1-0 7-5-0 4-1-0 4-2-0 10-7-0 8-9-0


X - San Francisco 10 7 0 427 365 4-4-0 6-3-0 7-5-0 3-2-0 2-4-0 9-8-0 8-9-0

Seattle 7 10 0 395 366 3-5-0 4-5-0 4-8-0 3-2-0 3-3-0 9-8-0 6-11-0



* Z - Clinched Home Field Advantage.
* Y - Clinched Division.
* X - Clinched Wild Card.

I'm not even sure where to start with this. So, basically, you're trying to create a power rating using averages. There are major fallacies to that. Not going to go into detail only to say your numbers will be off and not very trustworthy.

If you're going to do this, my suggestion is to go to the football reference site and use the saber numbers that are much more accurate that don't use averages. There are many, but there is an explanation of every number they put out and you can choose which ones you would like to use to come up with your own point spread or total. You'll need to be efficient with a program like excel to make it easier. Even Numbers on Mac will do the trick.

It's a lot of work but if you experiment with different numbers you should be able to find the right fit and have power numbers that are really accurate. Then all you have to do is add in the basic handicapping factors like home field, injuries etc..

[OldBill]

i know pologq but using the model that vegas use power ratings and everything else is way to complicated any you only use 2021 results for 1st two weeks after that it's just what they scred - gave up


ex... Cowboys won 21-10... then 28--6 so they are 49-16 for week 3 +33 points div by 2 weeks = +16.5 per game

the bad losing teams like jax texans etc might go like this scored 10 but gave 25 then score 6 gave up 28 so they would be

16--53 negative 37 points div by 2 -18.5 per game

[OldBill]

I'm not even sure where to start with this. So, basically, you're trying to create a power rating using averages. There are major fallacies to that. Not going to go into detail only to say your numbers will be off and not very trustworthy.

If you're going to do this, my suggestion is to go to the football reference site and use the saber numbers that are much more accurate that don't use averages. There are many, but there is an explanation of every number they put out and you can choose which ones you would like to use to come up with your own point spread or total. You'll need to be efficient with a program like excel to make it easier. Even Numbers on Mac will do the trick.

It's a lot of work but if you experiment with different numbers you should be able to find the right fit and have power numbers that are really accurate. Then all you have to do is add in the basic handicapping factors like home field, injuries etc..

tried that years ago i get better results my way and who knows how backup will perform thats already set by vegas they figure injuries in the spread but sometimes players pull a hammy or acl in warm ups and your bets already placed

i havent had a losing season in NFL past 20 years that all it is +$$$ at end im doing good

[pologq]

hey if it works for you bill then that is great. are you 100% betting off of your numbers or are you adding other analysis?

[OldBill]

hey if it works for you bill then that is great. are you 100% betting off of your numbers or are you adding other analysis?

no theres more to my handicapping but i do this every week and some games just jump off the page at me just look at my results all my systems and when you see teams fall into that system hammer against them

weeks 1 n 2 are tough after that is when i get it easier