1. #1
    stevenash
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    NBA Playoff Trend Worth Noting

    Teams down 0-2 returning home for game three in any playoff series cover the first half game line 74 percent of the time.
    (35-12-1)

    OK, I'll bite.
    48 games is enough of a sample size, the 74 percent number makes sense as home teams down 0-2 always come out playing like their hair is on fire.

    Dallas -3 for me
    1H only
    2*

  2. #2
    mjsuax13
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    Good info. Let’s go for it.

  3. #3
    jjgold
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    One of these games is going to be close

  4. #4
    KVB
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    I actually have this first half moneyline at -155.

    This market has moved though, and the first half -2 has gone to -3.

    A lot of pressure on the Mavs 1st half.

  5. #5
    stevenash
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    You have a good number.
    You can't do better than -170 now.

    I laid the three, the trend just makes too much sense to fade.

  6. #6
    italianbandit
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    I like it, good luck. I like 1Q more.

  7. #7
    lakerboy
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    Warriors can win first hf and lose game. That's what books want.

  8. #8
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Warriors can win first hf and lose game. That's what books want.
    I don't think first half wagering is in the forefront of the books minds.
    What percentage of the entire sum of all the money bet on tonight's game is bet on the first half?
    My guess is between 12 and 18 percent, tops.

  9. #9
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I don't think first half wagering is in the forefront of the books minds.
    What percentage of the entire sum of all the money bet on tonight's game is bet on the first half?
    My guess is between 12 and 18 percent, tops.
    Based on the history you presented you know books are paying close attention to that.

  10. #10
    dark star
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    hate the NBA but I like money.im in

  11. #11
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Based on the history you presented you know books are paying close attention to that.
    Yeah, I hear you.
    Like I said a couple of times, the trend in logical.
    Let's see how the 1H plays out.
    I'm paying attention to the ticky-tack touch fouls (if there are any called) in the first half.

  12. #12
    jjgold
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    You can find trends both ways every game every sport every day

  13. #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    You can find trends both ways every game every sport every day
    Gimme a minimum of 2000 instances though, and we're starting to get somewhere as far significance.

    Gold I am always teaching you.

  14. #14
    Headsterx
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    I never understood why games will have the same line for 1st half and game. I’m going for a sweep, but good luck!

  15. #15
    Headsterx
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    Disregard my post, you got this as it’s solid as gold. 😂😂😂

  16. #16
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Headsterx View Post
    I never understood why games will have the same line for 1st half and game. I’m going for a sweep, but good luck!
    Lazy books will just break it down in half or quarters.

    But, in my office (along with many other bettors) we know that scoring is not evenly distributed so those books can get slammed.

    The market has adjusted in recent years, but it is still not efficient.

    Mavs 1st quarter and half really getting adjusted tonight, for example.

    There is opportunity in these derivatives (props)

  17. #17
    pavyracer
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    The 1H line is +2.5 for Warriors and the game line is +3.

    I see a lot of value in Warriors +2.5 1H.

  18. #18
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    The 1H line is +2.5 for Warriors and the game line is +3.

    I see a lot of value in Warriors +2.5 1H.
    That first half is actually 3.5

    I agree at that level, it may have moved to far.

    I can already produce a negative hold with my -155 moneyline.

    This is what a professional trader should be seeking, being able to calculate these is very important.


  19. #19
    jrgum3
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    I got it at -2.5 1H and I agree with the play. Dallas is going to play like a desparate team tonight so it makes sense to take them on the 1H line. I think any run the Warriors make will come in the 2H so I'm not sure I like Dallas FG but that 1H play makes sense.

  20. #20
    KVB
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    Once again the books could move as high as they wanted, the public pays for whatever, they just want Dallas.

    Look how far they had to go before there was support.

    They took so much square public action that they are willing to bring in the traders and give them profit just to balance the books.

    Sure does feel like the cat got out of the bag.

    I think I said that already.

    Here's what I'm talking about...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ... ...

  21. #21
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    That first half is actually 3.5

    I agree at that level, it may have moved to far.

    I can already produce a negative hold with my -155 moneyline.

    This is what a professional trader should be seeking, being able to calculate these is very important.

    You are right. 1H is 3.5 and 1Q is 2.5.

    I think the books are giving too many points to Warriors 1H and 1Q. Trying to trap the public.

  22. #22
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    You are right. 1H is 3.5 and 1Q is 2.5.

    I think the books are giving too many points to Warriors 1H and 1Q. Trying to trap the public.
    At books where I feel a few metrics have been running hot, I sold back for profit. Let them figure that out...lol.

    I'm hanging on at the others.

    But yeah, again it feels like the cat is out of the bag.


  23. #23
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Lazy books will just break it down in half or quarters.

    But, in my office (along with many other bettors) we know that scoring is not evenly distributed so those books can get slammed.

    The market has adjusted in recent years, but it is still not efficient.

    Mavs 1st quarter and half really getting adjusted tonight, for example.

    There is opportunity in these derivatives (props)
    What kind of props? Player points?

  24. #24
    rake922
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Teams down 0-2 returning home for game three in any playoff series cover the first half game line 74 percent of the time.
    (35-12-1)

    OK, I'll bite.
    48 games is enough of a sample size, the 74 percent number makes sense as home teams down 0-2 always come out playing like their hair is on fire.

    Dallas -3 for me
    1H only
    2*
    Just because something happened 74% of the time, doesn't mean it continues to run at 74% of the time going forward.

  25. #25
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    What kind of props? Player points?
    I really was just thinking quarters, periods, and halves; sort of calling those props.

    But there those mlb score each inning props can really get out of whack.

    2nd inning is often off and when scoring picks up in the middle of the game it goes the other way (off) and then late in the game scoring is often where scoring drops, those lines differ a bit.

    Early (1st period) nhl and early inning mlb have been the spot, but US casinos suck now, they really don't like that action, instead of adjusting to it...so it seems.

    I've probably said too much but for those with a database or access, they can find edges there. And most accounts probably would get by for a good month before getting limited on those bets, if at all.

  26. #26
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by rake922 View Post
    Just because something happened 74% of the time, doesn't mean it continues to run at 74% of the time going forward.
    That is true, and I'm not ramming the bet down anybody's throat.
    It's a trend that's worth noting because it makes sense.

    Celtics at home made sense too last night and that turned out to be a clusterfuck.

    That's why they call it gambling.
    At least I'll post a play, back it up with reasoning, if it goes down, so be it.
    It's not like a dart throw, like 80 percent of the posters here.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Headsterx

  27. #27
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by rake922 View Post
    Just because something happened 74% of the time, doesn't mean it continues to run at 74% of the time going forward.
    I think we can get away with 2000 instances, even in today's environment.

    But of course more are better.

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Gimme a minimum of 2000 instances though, and we're starting to get somewhere as far significance...

  28. #28
    hotcross
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    That's why they call it gambling.
    At least I'll post a play, back it up with reasoning, if it goes down, so be it.
    It's not like a dart throw, like 80 percent of the posters here.
    Hey..... Hey !!

  29. #29
    Headsterx
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    That is true, and I'm not ramming the bet down anybody's throat.
    It's a trend that's worth noting because it makes sense.

    Celtics at home made sense too last night and that turned out to be a clusterfuck.

    That's why they call it gambling.
    At least I'll post a play, back it up with reasoning, if it goes down, so be it.
    It's not like a dart throw, like 80 percent of the posters here.

  30. #30
    mikmik
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    The heck just happened wtf

  31. #31
    stevenash
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    ^
    Even up nine I wasn't comfortable.

    Game of swings, GSW unfortunately went on the last run.
    Still got 2:00 left here.

  32. #32
    coop-dog
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    bad meat

  33. #33
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by coop-dog View Post
    bad meat
    Bummer.
    Entertaining first half though.

    Even in loss, I still stand by that play.

    I'll be just fine.

  34. #34
    hotcross
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    Maybe try the dartboard


  35. #35
    stevenash
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    ^
    Maybe next time.

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