1. #1
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,156
    Betpoints: 4093

    KVB's Knowing Your Markets

    I try to present a little for every type of bettor. Some of you will know of this. Some of you practice this. Regardless of your level of bettor, from a fan to one seeking correlation, I hope it is a good watch...



    Here are some relevant links that I also hope would be a good read, or watch, no matter your level.

    KVB's Intro...

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-business.html

    The Scott Foster thread that isn't about Scott Foster. Again, no matter your level of bettor I hope it's good read, there is something for everyone there...

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...x-tonight.html

    The USFL thread...

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...k-1-lines.html

    From the psychology corner I talk about Red Flags and how one mistake can lead to another. Even in this linked post, I made a mistake, and had to post again to clear it up...

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post30850727

    Thank you for following along, if you are, and, again, for all levels of bettors, I hope you get something out of it for your time.


    Points Awarded:

    DiggityDaggityDo gave KVB 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Tanko gave KVB 10 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    manny24 gave KVB 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    stake1 gave KVB 3 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Da Manster! gave KVB 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    gauchojake gave KVB 22 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: BeatTheJerk, and stake1

  2. #2
    MinnesotaFats
    MinnesotaFats's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-18-10
    Posts: 14,760
    Betpoints: 1658

    This is alot of info for rhubes on SBR

    I'd think most will try to understand but inevitably will look to tail my plays for big money

  3. #3
    DiggityDaggityDo
    DiggityDaggityDo's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-30-08
    Posts: 112,047
    Betpoints: 19130

    Gonna have to watch this later after I get back home.

  4. #4
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,764
    Betpoints: 700

    Itís all random

    So easy to sum it up

  5. #5
    Brock Landers
    Forever in Debt to your Priceless Advice
    Brock Landers's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-30-08
    Posts: 44,625
    Betpoints: 5309

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Itís all random

    So easy to sum it up
    LOL

    Watch the video

    He destroys you multiple times

    Solid vid as always Pal
    Last edited by Brock Landers; 04-26-22 at 05:42 PM.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: KVB
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/15/2022


  6. #6
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,289
    Betpoints: 5635

    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    LOL

    Watch the video

    He destroys you multiple times

    Solid vid as always Pal
    It’s too late for him, plus his bankroll is trash.

  7. #7
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,764
    Betpoints: 700

    I am on road no time right now

    Might fit it in tomorrow

  8. #8
    thetrinity
    penetrate me to tears
    thetrinity's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-25-11
    Posts: 21,512
    Betpoints: 858

    Kvb looks like one of those college professors who gives the skanky dumb girls As that they didnít earn

  9. #9
    MinnesotaFats
    MinnesotaFats's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-18-10
    Posts: 14,760
    Betpoints: 1658

    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    Kvb looks like one of those college professors who gives the skanky dumb girls As that they didnít earn
    Oh oh oh....they earn em

  10. #10
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 52,736
    Betpoints: 835

    Thanks KVB.

    Interesting to hear your take on the very common question "what are the sharp books". I'll use some of that in future I am sure.

    The early discussion about vig and hold was good too.


    I think you should get yourself a new microphone though. Struggled to understand you quite a few times.
    Points Awarded:

    KVB gave Optional 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/11/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/04/2022

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 2/4/2017


  11. #11
    StackinGreen
    Can't stop Won't stop
    StackinGreen's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-10
    Posts: 11,811
    Betpoints: 17858

    My guy KVB taking people to school.

  12. #12
    Brock Landers
    Forever in Debt to your Priceless Advice
    Brock Landers's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-30-08
    Posts: 44,625
    Betpoints: 5309

    KVB, why did pinnacle pull their lines from all services? What's your theory anyway
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/15/2022


  13. #13
    Waterstpub87
    Life-Style Arbitrage
    Waterstpub87's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 3,956
    Betpoints: 2366

    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    KVB, why did pinnacle pull their lines from all services? What's your theory anyway
    I believe they are starting a business to sell it. I inquired awhile ago about API, and they said "stopping this, starting pinnacle services". Unconfirmed if this is true, but its what they said.

  14. #14
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,156
    Betpoints: 4093

    As far as I know it's about contract negotiations.

    But I do know where the public, for free, can get a Pinny line.

    It was the former home of lowercase KVB.

    They must have negotiated something or are taking it from another service.

  15. #15
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,156
    Betpoints: 4093

    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    I believe they are starting a business to sell it. I inquired awhile ago about API, and they said "stopping this, starting pinnacle services". Unconfirmed if this is true, but its what they said.
    Maybe these are the new contracts, I'm not sure.

    Good intro with python, help take this place up a notch.


  16. #16
    Waterstpub87
    Life-Style Arbitrage
    Waterstpub87's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 3,956
    Betpoints: 2366

    KVB, excellent video as always. I echo the advise you need a better microphone. I have to pull it up on the Roku and crank the volume, rather than trying to watch on computer.

  17. #17
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,156
    Betpoints: 4093

    Appreciate the feedback, I really noticed it in the part where I say a book may have already dealt with someone and I'm saying to find a way back in...lol.

    It's part of the game. Get kicked out, find a way back in. This how betting organizations operate, not to mention motivated individuals.

    Thanks again for the feedback, a lot of hands to the face, low talking voice too, I'll get it worked out.

    I'm looking forward to making more.

  18. #18
    RangeFinder
    RangeFinder's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-27-16
    Posts: 7,773
    Betpoints: 1990

    When does the chart school for stocks start?

    I'm sure you have a few takes on those

  19. #19
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,156
    Betpoints: 4093

    One of things I want to emphasize here, something that helps anyone no matter your level.

    It's that difference between what we calculate to be what the market or book is showing, by opinion of course, to be the no-vig line and what a potentially more accurate no-vig line is based on what led the market.

    Know your markets.

    Calculate the no vig line at close, assess the movement and where and when it happened, and see how things unfold as you watch them.

    Track your bets and why you made them. I think this statement that I often repeat is not fully understood by most. That's because there is so much to it. When we're using correlations, we're tracking our bets and why we're making them.

    When we're watching and sports and drinking beers, make a note why you made a bet. Was it the QBs? Maybe you make ratings too, even if you don't have hard evidence of correlation?

    Maybe you just wanted to have action to watch.

    Whatever the reason, track it. This separates your bets, your strategies. Remember, it's not our information, it's how use that information.

    When you track your bets you create a body of information that nobody else has. Can you find ways to use it?


  20. #20
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,156
    Betpoints: 4093

    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    Kvb looks like one of those college professors who gives the skanky dumb girls As that they didn’t earn
    Students will earn their grades fair and square.

    It's an investigation of my TA hiring practices that might bring me down...




  21. #21
    d2bets
    d2bets's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 37,058
    Betpoints: 6044

    Good stuff.

    I know you mentioned that you'd discuss in another video, but the "prices are important; half point not so much" threw me a bit. Requires a whole lotta context and qualification. I would generally say the opposite. I think more often when you find reduced juice vs. a half point better at -110, the -110 is going to be preferred more often than not. For example, I see right now on Denver Nuggets +8.5-105 or elsewhere +9-110. Are you taking the "better price" at +8.5-105? Or even -103? I wouldn't. I'd take the +9-110. Pretty sure you would too.

    And then to play that further, if you are betting quarter, half, live, etc., that half point is going to be worth even more the shorter the market is. If you bet quarters, halves and live, you must understand this.

    I know that you know this, but if I was only watching this video, I would probably have taken away the opposite.

  22. #22
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,289
    Betpoints: 5635

    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Good stuff.

    I know you mentioned that you'd discuss in another video, but the "prices are important; half point not so much" threw me a bit. Requires a whole lotta context and qualification. I would generally say the opposite. I think more often when you find reduced juice vs. a half point better at -110, the -110 is going to be preferred more often than not. For example, I see right now on Denver Nuggets +8.5-105 or elsewhere +9-110. Are you taking the "better price" at +8.5-105? Or even -103? I wouldn't. I'd take the +9-110. Pretty sure you would too.

    And then to play that further, if you are betting quarter, half, live, etc., that half point is going to be worth even more the shorter the market is. If you bet quarters, halves and live, you must understand this.

    I know that you know this, but if I was only watching this video, I would probably have taken away the opposite.
    I might be coming from a very simplistic/amateur POV, but this is just my personal approach. I find myself "selling" half a point back to the bookmaker in order to reduce my juice as a whole. I'd say roughly I do this 25% of the time, & of course I don't do it on key numbers like in the NFL 3,7,10. So my point is when I decide to place a wager, (which not in volume like you & KVB, simply because of my limited BR) I don't anticipate the game to win by one point, because winning by one point is not a good enough advantage for me as far as value. This is all psychological for me when I determine a wager. So selling back a half point to the bookmaker to reduce my vig up to 100% or more at times, but not always. I feel it's worth it regarding my approach to a wager.

  23. #23
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,156
    Betpoints: 4093

    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    ...but the "prices are important; half point not so much" threw me a bit. Requires a whole lotta context and qualification...
    You are right.

    Yeah, half points are important my point was to be able to convert them all to prices.

    When you know what the half point is worth in probability, you can make all decisions based on "price".

    So yeah, half points are huge like you say, but with them can a be a different price. Like +7 (-105) and +7.5 (-120). I'm really just talking about conversions.

    That price of a .5 points matters. I know you know it d2, but it's a great question and I think I would have asked the same. It's big part of it, do you take the extra half point, pass, does it matter?

  24. #24
    pilebuck13
    pilebuck13's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-15-15
    Posts: 17,582
    Betpoints: 1284

    Totals I always buy up the hook to get +odds comfy w a push due to high volume juice is enemy

  25. #25
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,156
    Betpoints: 4093

    Sometimes we'll see a half point move that won't affect the "sharps" in the audience because of the price built into the offer. Often, if the "sharp" is undecided or ambivalent, the half point move with a higher price might have him in the same spot, the same exact decision.

    The same price.

    But to the public that half point move could mean everything and they don't care what price they pay.


  26. #26
    d2bets
    d2bets's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 37,058
    Betpoints: 6044

    Quote Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk View Post
    I might be coming from a very simplistic/amateur POV, but this is just my personal approach. I find myself "selling" half a point back to the bookmaker in order to reduce my juice as a whole. I'd say roughly I do this 25% of the time, & of course I don't do it on key numbers like in the NFL 3,7,10. So my point is when I decide to place a wager, (which not in volume like you & KVB, simply because of my limited BR) I don't anticipate the game to win by one point, because winning by one point is not a good enough advantage for me as far as value. This is all psychological for me when I determine a wager. So selling back a half point to the bookmaker to reduce my vig up to 100% or more at times, but not always. I feel it's worth it regarding my approach to a wager.
    All depends on price. I know you don't think the half point will matter, and of course it "rarely" will, but it's that 1 time in 20 that makes more of a difference than a few cents better price. You don't know when it will matter, and neither do I. Just understand what the half point is worth and take the better overall price, combined with price and spread. If you are just looking at one book in isolation and then "selling" it back, I highly doubt they are going to give you enough value to do it. Books are not that smart, but they're also not that dumb.

  27. #27
    gshock1
    gshock1's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-04-09
    Posts: 5,366
    Betpoints: 1401

    Excellent video KVB.

  28. #28
    d2bets
    d2bets's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 37,058
    Betpoints: 6044

    I think people think the vig is more important than the half point because it matters every time, right. If you win at -105, you get more back than at -110. Easy to see. Tangible.

    The half point matters very rarely. But of course when it does, the difference is massive.

    So let's look at that Denver +8.5-105 vs. +9-110. Tempted by the reduced juice. Thinking, I mean it's probably like 1 in 20 that it lands exactly on 9, so don't worry about it. It hardly ever happens. You're confident in your wager.

    OK, so you bet that 20 times. And let's say you're right that the +8.5 is good, and you go 11-9 at that number. But one of those 9 losses would have pushed on 9. So it's 11-9 at -105 vs. 11-8-1 at -110. Which is better betting 100 per play?

    11-9 at -105 = +$147.62
    11-8-1- at -110 =+$200.00

    That one push saving you a $100 loss was worth (a lot) more than an extra $5.24 in 11 wins.

    That's over 35% extra profit!
    Last edited by d2bets; 04-27-22 at 03:53 PM.

  29. #29
    thetrinity
    penetrate me to tears
    thetrinity's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-25-11
    Posts: 21,512
    Betpoints: 858

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Students will earn their grades fair and square.

    It's an investigation of my TA hiring practices that might bring me down...



    Your hiring practices look A OK with me

  30. #30
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,764
    Betpoints: 700

    I would school this guy

    I love I never have to shop
    Lines and get best Number in world every bet at the time of the play vs anyone else

    Toying with you guys

    I am a mollybet player all you need to know

    Best betting platform world with lowest juice books in world

    Thank you

  31. #31
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,289
    Betpoints: 5635

    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    I think people think the vig is more important than the half point because it matters every time, right. If you win at -105, you get more back than at -110. Easy to see. Tangible.

    The half point matters very rarely. But of course when it does, the difference is massive.

    So let's look at that Denver +8.5-105 vs. +9-110. Tempted by the reduced juice. Thinking, I mean it's probably like 1 in 20 that it lands exactly on 9, so don't worry about it. It hardly ever happens. You're confident in your wager.

    OK, so you bet that 20 times. And let's say you're right that the +8.5 is good, and you go 11-9 at that number. But one of those 9 losses would have pushed on 9. So it's 11-9 at -105 vs. 11-8-1 at -110. Which is better betting 100 per play?

    11-9 at -105 = +$147.62
    11-8-1- at -110 =+$200.00

    That one push saving you a $100 loss was worth (a lot) more than an extra $5.24 in 11 wins.

    That's over 35% extra profit!
    I don’t do it when it’s only -105. I’m doing it anywhere from -102 up to +108 at times for only half a point. These odds are available on certain games, & if that criteria matches with my bet. I’ll sell the .5 back at those odds.

  32. #32
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,289
    Betpoints: 5635

    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    I think people think the vig is more important than the half point because it matters every time, right. If you win at -105, you get more back than at -110. Easy to see. Tangible.

    The half point matters very rarely. But of course when it does, the difference is massive.

    So let's look at that Denver +8.5-105 vs. +9-110. Tempted by the reduced juice. Thinking, I mean it's probably like 1 in 20 that it lands exactly on 9, so don't worry about it. It hardly ever happens. You're confident in your wager.

    OK, so you bet that 20 times. And let's say you're right that the +8.5 is good, and you go 11-9 at that number. But one of those 9 losses would have pushed on 9. So it's 11-9 at -105 vs. 11-8-1 at -110. Which is better betting 100 per play?

    11-9 at -105 = +$147.62
    11-8-1- at -110 =+$200.00

    That one push saving you a $100 loss was worth (a lot) more than an extra $5.24 in 11 wins.

    That's over 35% extra profit!
    I see your rebuttal & the math makes since to me with your example, that you don’t create an advantage selling a half point.

  33. #33
    d2bets
    d2bets's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 37,058
    Betpoints: 6044

    Quote Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk View Post
    I see your rebuttal & the math makes since to me with your example, that you don’t create an advantage selling a half point.
    Depends on the juice savings for the half point. I think some books will give you like +9-110 or let you sell to +8.5-103, that sort of thing. Generally not worthwhile IMO. In the NBA those half points are generally worth between 8 to 11 cents, give or take.

  34. #34
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,156
    Betpoints: 4093

    Yep, it's all about the price.

    Call it savings in juice, but it's just price. Juice or vig doesn't matter.

    But I get it, sometimes we just call the price juice.

    So yeah, once we convert the .5 points to a price, is easy to see which price is the best, or to see they are the same, when comparing the two spreads.

  35. #35
    texhooper
    texhooper's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-05-09
    Posts: 9,079
    Betpoints: 3621

    Hell yes I got a shoutout in a KVB video. Iím bought and paid for now, great stuff as usual bruddah!

    Seriously I enjoy your videos and keep them coming

    Now just need to know where to get that free pinnacle line historyÖI found a place called the rundown where you have to sign up with your email address and they have it, but like your video alludes to somewhat, they often show the adjusted priced point spreads instead of the actual line, and Iím not into trying to decipher what all that likely means for the real line throughout a day
    Points Awarded:

    KVB gave texhooper 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/08/2022


12 Last
Top