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Georgia v. Alabama - Pick and Write-Up
+13.6 Units this year
Everyone knows Georgia is a better team than Alabama, and that is obviously priced in the line at +6.5 -105. Still, if you look at this game, this a good matchup for Alabama.
Alabama is slightly underrated, because they get everyone's best shot. Everyone knows Alabama not Georgia is the team to beat in the SEC and college football, and Alabama is every team's super bowl, they get every teams best shot.
Even though Georgia is the better team this should be a good matchup for Alabama. Georgia's defense is good, but the quarterbacks that Georgia has faced have been complete garbage. Georgia played backup quarterbacks 3 weeks in a row, and the best quarterbacks they faced all year were Bo Nix, who has always struggled against good defenses, and Hooker, who moved the ball well on Georgia in the first half and threw for nearly 250 yards.
Brice Young is by far the best quarterback Georgia has seen all year, and even though Alabama has had issues at tackle, the offensive line has played well at key times like late in the LSU and Auburn games. Brice Young is also a dual threat quarterback who usually doesn't run much, but should run more in a big game like this. Alabama also knows that their offensive line has been an issue, and Young should run more and Alabama should be able to use short passes as ways to move the ball without throwing down the field even if the run game struggles.
Georgia's offense is built off their ability to run and pass off play action, they have not been able to pass the ball consistently without first establishing the run, and even though Alabama's pass defense has been inconsistent, the Alabama run defense has been elite. Alabama held a very strong Arkansas running game to under 3 yards a carry and the only game Georgia struggled to run was against Clemson, a game they scored 10 points in.
Alabama held a very strong ole miss running game to 2.3 yards a carry, Arkansas to 2.9 yards a carry, and Texas A&M to 3.5 yards a carry. Alabama has consistently held thee best rushing teams in the country to under 4 and 3 yards carry, the Alabama run defense is elite.
Kirby Smart is also a horrible big game head coach. He's overly emotional and almost never makes any adjustments, which is why he got badly outcoached against Saban in the national championship game, and he has never beaten Alabama in any game. Saban always coaches his best in big games, putting Tua in at halftime against Georgia, the onside kick against Clemson in the national championship game, Saban has always been able to to adjust and give his team advantages.
Alabama +6.5 -105 risking 2.1 units to win 2
Alabama moneyline +198 risking 1 unit to win 1.98
payupsucker gave thomorino 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by thomorino
