[Bluehorseshoe]

You have teams that are 1 pt dogs losing by 25 on a regular basis.

[jjgold]

My number one rule is PlayHome teams if anything

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My number one rule is PlayHome teams if anything

How can u go wrong???

[Bluehorseshoe]

I'm selling points from now on.

If a team wins, they cover 15. lol

[KVB]

How can you make lines?

Honestly, the same way, really. But I get what you're saying.

You just gave me some inspiration for discussion.

Seems like the definition of outlier is expanding, lol. If you're comparing teams, or stats, on the simple level, remember to use medians and compare against the league.

By comparing each team against the league first, then to each other, it all becomes relative. Let the results just fill in the model. Before sticking it into a regression, on a bit higher level, make a rating out of it with comparisons. I think I'll talk about this in a video. This is just the kind of stuff I wanted to get into. Arm the betor with the know how, and just enough, that they're creativity and desire takes over.

Horseshoe, you 've been around a long time, and respect to you. Never seen you to be the poster to lose it, troll, ect. You have a keel and a sharpness.

To me the problem with the NBA is that you have to cap whether not a player will play, lol, it seems anymore. What used to be a goldmine because of the number of bets offered per season will get toughter, I believe.

All this other crazy scoring in the NBA will influence the new market participants for sure, but don't fall victim to the recency effect.

Also, do pay attention to that rule change policy where if a defender grabs the guy's shirt or whatever while he's running off the ball, they will start enforcing that already in place rule.

This freed up the offense quite a bit. Also, thanks to Lillard and Curry, and a couple of others, we are amidst a revolution of 3 pointers from the logo. It's crazy but true.

So we have to balance recency effect with reality. We just need games to happen, and go on, and not get screwed by some kind of Kung Flu, so we can get a grasp on the season.

Good Luck

[magpie878]

No matter the line, good luck guessing who cares that particular night. The era of caring about regular season games is long gone, barring a playoff chase. They don't even care so much to their seeding anymore.

I bailed on the NBA years ago, as far as watching, save a few games a year. Tried watching the Lakers Warriors opener and after the first half, I bailed. Awful product. Bricks, missed easy jumpers, missed layups, walking and traveling on countless plays, uncalled. It's a joke. I'm still baffled how it's so popular.

Sorry for the sideways post.

[KiDBaZkiT]

Why even watch? I gave it a shot the first two days of the season and it’s just flat out atrocious. 14 pts in the final 47 seconds of a 9 point game? Who wants to sign up for that shit?

[KVB]

No matter the line, good luck guessing who cares that particular night. The era of caring about regular season games is long gone, barring a playoff chase. They don't even care so much to their seeding anymore.

I bailed on the NBA years ago, as far as watching, save a few games a year. Tried watching the Lakers Warriors opener and after the first half, I bailed. Awful product. Bricks, missed easy jumpers, missed layups, walking and traveling on countless plays, uncalled. It's a joke. I'm still baffled how it's so popular.

Sorry for the sideways post.

Not sideways at all magpie. It's kind of spot on.

It's tough to profit from it too.

Value gets sucked out of a lot of the market anymore.

For example, the 2015-2016 Warriors went 72-9 and a moneyline bettor risking the same unit on won about +9 UNITS, maybe a little more, depending on the line. There was better than an 11.4% ROI. But, quite honestly, it should have been higher.

The 2016-17 Warriors went 67-15 and and that same bettor was closer to even, maybe lost up to -1.5 UNITS. About a negative 2% ROI.

Then the 2017-18 Warriors went 58-24 losing the same ROI and UNITS that were gained in 2015-16.

The 2018-19 Warriors did a little better, at 57-25 as loss was a couple units less. Value was bouncing back a bit.

It looks like the bottomed out in 2019-20 when they went 15-50.

Last year they returned about 6% on the moneyline and this year they have started out 4-0.

Value erodes fast in the NBA so being in the right place at the right time can matter.

But on any given night, the variance can be astounding.

It's a small margin game for some of us, win or lose, but at least there a lot of games.

[Bluehorseshoe]

How can you make lines?

Honestly, the same way, really. But I get what you're saying.

You just gave me some inspiration for discussion.

Seems like the definition of outlier is expanding, lol. If you're comparing teams, or stats, on the simple level, remember to use medians and compare against the league.

By comparing each team against the league first, then to each other, it all becomes relative. Let the results just fill in the model. Before sticking it into a regression, on a bit higher level, make a rating out of it with comparisons. I think I'll talk about this in a video. This is just the kind of stuff I wanted to get into. Arm the betor with the know how, and just enough, that they're creativity and desire takes over.

Horseshoe, you 've been around a long time, and respect to you. Never seen you to be the poster to lose it, troll, ect. You have a keel and a sharpness.

To me the problem with the NBA is that you have to cap whether not a player will play, lol, it seems anymore. What used to be a goldmine because of the number of bets offered per season will get toughter, I believe.

All this other crazy scoring in the NBA will influence the new market participants for sure, but don't fall victim to the recency effect.

Also, do pay attention to that rule change policy where if a defender grabs the guy's shirt or whatever while he's running off the ball, they will start enforcing that already in place rule.

This freed up the offense quite a bit. Also, thanks to Lillard and Curry, and a couple of others, we are amidst a revolution of 3 pointers from the logo. It's crazy but true.

So we have to balance recency effect with reality. We just need games to happen, and go on, and not get screwed by some kind of Kung Flu, so we can get a grasp on the season.

Good Luck

Thanks for the comments.

The funny thing is, I still figure out my own lines every morning to see where the differences are and I'm pretty dead on with Bookmaker's lines. (Biggest line I'm off today is on Boston. I have them -6 1/2) Does it make a difference anymore?? Not really. You can throw out the half point calculator, which was great.

Like everyone already knows.......It's whoever showed up that night. If you hit your threes early and the other team isn't, you get to coast the rest of the way. You also get to give up and wait for the next game.

[jjgold]

Portland ML looks too easy tonight

[KVB]

Thanks for the comments.

The funny thing is, I still figure out my own lines every morning to see where the differences are and I'm pretty dead on with Bookmaker's lines. (Biggest line I'm off today is on Boston. I have them -6 1/2) Does it make a difference anymore?? Not really. You can throw out the half point calculator, which was great.

Like everyone already knows.......It's whoever showed up that night. If you hit your threes early and the other team isn't, you get to coast the rest of the way. You also get to give up and wait for the next game.

I hear that too. It's a difficult time. It also sounds like the market is catching up to you. Less plays, closer to the market, etc, that's a sure sign in my book. I know it all to well...lol.

We have to figure out how to get back on top, ahead of the market again.

I keep going back to the probablitiy that so and so will play tonight. It sucks.

[shadymcgrady]

The real gamble is betting on NBA players to give a sht during the regular season. James harden and Damian Lillard were goldmines back in the day

[MinnesotaFats]

NBA has reverted back to being size oriented.

Bet the better big men

Teams that play small don't win anymore

Also, I'm seeing way more of the variance qtr by qtr in scoring.

Teams put up 30 pts 1 qtr, then 16 the 2nd....I don't understand that willingness to accept a negative shift in momentum....

[lakerboy]

NBA has always been about spots. I do not care what anyone says.

[JacketFan81]

Dogs to start the year, faves mid season, dogs to close out the season. When the playoffs come, that's the only time you can legit cap NBA