SBR forcing the hook.Originally Posted by Jayvegas420
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08-07-21 05:59 PM #36
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08-07-21 06:25 PM #37
Ok, that’s one for Tor. Cal now -2.5 and -135 on the ML. Originally Posted by KVB
I’d like to see Tor score again, but not sure we’ll get it.
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08-07-21 07:01 PM #38
Calgary with the lead, the -2.5 was the best shot so far.
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08-07-21 10:08 PM #39
3 games, 3 dogs ATS, 2 outright UPSETS. Originally Posted by KVB
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08-07-21 11:58 PM #40
Yeah, you were right about going with the underdogs early in season...still Calgary didn't play bad but they failed to capitalize on all of the best momentum swings tonight. Originally Posted by KVB
3 games, 3 dogs ATS, 2 outright UPSETS.
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08-07-21 11:59 PM #41
Was thinking same thing about Calgary tonight...faaak... Originally Posted by jrgum3
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08-12-21 11:59 AM #42
I have been doing quite a bit of research on CFL the last few days. I have written a dozen posts, but posted none of them. Just debating still how much to share. I even considered a video series for CFL markets.
But now we have a Calgary -6.5 that could be -7 everywhere, and they probably win by 6, lol. I wanted to wait until these lines were more available to post a buy.
The stacking percentages forecast has Calgary winning with 24 or 25 points to BC's 23 or 24 points. Calgary with a slight edge here in the early season forecast. The non predictive public gauge has Calgary winning 26-23.
I know I suggested picking up the underdog each game for the first few weeks blindly but I am going against that here. I have already picked up...
680 12-Aug CAL -6.5 (-109)
This is a loaded game and we could be looking at a 6 or 7 point game here. Again, this is an early season play as we are yet to get 4 games under each team's belts. I may track early season seperate from late because of the methodology being used.
When it comes to streak riding and streak breaking bettors, something I wanted to focus on early, Calgary has been in a position to take in the money and fail multiple times from the streak breaking bettors aligned with the public thirst for a Calgary cover in their recent past. On top of that, last week was once again a tough week for the streak breaking side of the market, as they were shaken out from the very first game of the week.
Eventually, these bettors will get paid and as the first game of the second week, we see the early bird getting the worm here.
Good Luck.
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08-12-21 12:05 PM #43
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08-12-21 12:07 PM #44
If there's going to be balance in the CFL markets, it starts now. If not, it will be one cold market for a couple of weeks to come.
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08-12-21 01:09 PM #45
This feels like a 28-29 point game
Pounding the under.
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08-12-21 01:38 PM #46
Right? Originally Posted by Jayvegas420
lol
Jay gets it. I know I didn't provide much rationale, but I wanted to beat the line move, should have even posted earlier. There's a reason I was considering a different set of tracking for the early season. Just how cold is the CFL? We'll see. There is a rotation the teams always go through and it sucks that we are missing the 2020 season. All I can say is Calgary is the new Winnipeg and I am prepeared to lose with them tonight, as I did many times with Winnipeg.
I might start an open parlay with the Calgary moneyline, I just might be a part of the pressure on Calgary. I have so many metrics at play here, just after one week. There have already been market shakeouts. The thing is, there isn't much that is new here. Losing the Calagary bet, and Calgary losing, brining another early season upset, wouldn't really be unusual for the CFL.
You know what I'm saying?
I do have a LIVE LEAN: BUY the BC UPSET pre game and look to sell back for a freeroll or profit LIVE.
In this instance, we take use the LIVE betting bankroll to buy the pregame BC moneyline. This is just a lean though, and not a very good one. If it is Calgary, the blowout could be at play, but only after BC scores first. So we may not have a good price to sell back. Wew didn't have a good line last week.
I honestly have so much I could share here with just breaking the market down to two groups. Is there an edge in it all? Well, it is only week 2, so you have to keep that in mind. Are there long term edges in some of what I'm posting? Yes there is. And we have one with Calgary.
This metric is one I've dubbed the KVB CFL TruPik and it also tracks the give and take of the markets. It can be generated in any spread sport. We are in the midst of a season to season TruPick shakeout in the CFL. The sharps have gotten a little too ambitious.
I intend to exploit the market turnaround there and hopefully it's a sharp one. A Calgary loss here ATS would really add to the market shakeout.
I will post more about this metric, and actually wanted to do it by video, but we'll see. I'm not going to lie, I've dedicated many many hours these last couple of days to the CFL, I hardly even posted at SBR. I want this thread toe see the fruits of those labors.
Like I said, I have written a dozen posts, none of them posted. I even thought of sending you some PM's Jay, but let's face it those aren't private.
I have all the forecastas and even writeups for every game this week, have since Monday.
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08-12-21 02:14 PM #47
I also did quite a bit of research over the last 15 years of CFL.
Here is some info on Totals. This is regular and post season...
Totals: 2005-Pre 2015-Pre # of Games 1178 428 Mean 50.94 51.11 Median 50 51 Most Frequent 51 47
Here are some charts, to give you a vusial. I added the Total above the columns for some of the most frequent numbers to make it easier to read...
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08-12-21 03:21 PM #48
Hoping for Calgary to cover again
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08-12-21 03:22 PM #49
Calgary losing last week they'll be better this week
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08-12-21 08:06 PM #50
Calgary is under pressure in the market but for some so is BC. I have some mixed information but the overall market shakeouts have convinced me that this is a decen spot for Calgary.
With no losses incurred during the shakeout I am entering the moneyline market here with the first of a few "let it ride" open parlays. There could be sportsbook limits that we run into, if we're lucky.
The first play in the "let it ride" open parlay is the Calgary moneyline...
680 12-Aug CALGARY -284
The risk here is one unit and the intention is to let the bet and winnings ride into the next play, just like an open parlay. The advantage here is the we are not locked into a set number of spots, we can stop the progression at anytime. The disadvantage here is that we could run into limit issues as we are making a new bet each time.
Good Luck
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08-12-21 11:55 PM #51
Man, something ****** up with Bo Levi Mitchell throws 4 interceptions and can't make any use of multiple opportunities...2 games in row he like this...can't take him to cover anymore much less even bet Calgary to outright win anymore...
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08-13-21 01:34 AM #52
In fact I now blame Calgary losses on their new candystriped candy assed ugly uniforms and ugly bright sparkling helmets - every game they wear these disgusting things I can't bet on them
Last edited by Tuesday; 08-13-21 at 01:40 AM.
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08-13-21 09:37 AM #53
Just the early season CFL at play here. It's not uncommon for this league. Underdogs and shakeouts dating back to 2019 season are also at play. Originally Posted by KVB
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08-13-21 01:38 PM #54
Yeah...looks like what you said about taking all underdogs is the safest option for now... Originally Posted by KVB
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08-13-21 07:13 PM #55
Just going to drop some early season numbers here...
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 13-Aug TOR 20 19 WIN 31 27
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08-14-21 03:50 AM #56
Hey does anyone here want to start a small time CFL pool for week 3 or so? Any amount of points, even if it only few people I'll set it up.
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08-14-21 04:35 AM #57
I'm thinking weekly pool starting for week 3 and payouts each week - 2nd place gets their buy in back and 1st gets the rest of pot.
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08-14-21 03:12 PM #58
SK -1.5 tonight is a good deal and should cover
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08-14-21 03:49 PM #59
I'm on Edmonton -3.5 and SSK/Hamilton u49.5 tonight. I got burned by the Elks last week but I think that they will bounce back here at home against a Montreal team that didn't play last week and could be rusty tonight as a result. As for the SSK game I think it could go either way so I stayed away from the side but I think this will be a game decided by the defenses so I opted for the under 49.5. BOL with your plays guys.
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08-14-21 04:32 PM #60
Again, just some early numbers, I'm not in position right now to really write up the games, just like yesterday.
And I apologize for that as the favorite yesterday should have been a posted play. I'm kicking myself. Buying the Cal favorite and not following up with it with Winnipeg was criminal of me.
The numbers...
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 14-Aug MON 23 23 EDM 29 30 25 HAM 24 25 23 SSK 28 25
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08-14-21 05:47 PM #61
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08-14-21 06:04 PM #62
Yeah EDM should cover too, wish could have got it at -2.5 would have been awesome deal, I been taking KVB advice now and just watch another week before losing anything again hahaha! Originally Posted by jrgum3
Good luck with your bets everyone
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08-14-21 07:47 PM #63
I'm in if its just sides & totals Originally Posted by Tuesday
maybe we make it interesting and grade by action points
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08-14-21 08:35 PM #64
Anything fine with me, what are action points? I'll set it up even if it just 3 people playing, 3 or more players it'll be 2nd gets their points back and 1st gets pot - if only us two then obviously it just one winner take all. Originally Posted by Jayvegas420
How many points buy in? 6, 12, 50, 500 more? Any amount fine with me.
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08-14-21 09:01 PM #65
I'm shocked that both CGY and EDM 0-2 to start season...times are a changing...will be interested week 3...
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08-16-21 10:58 PM #66
Hey guys, Calgary will be without Bo Levi Mitchell this week vs Montreal.
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08-17-21 03:28 AM #67
Really? When did this happen? Will search it now...I love Calgary but can't bet on then anymore after watching those first 2 games, Saskatchewan looking good though. Originally Posted by Hngkng
Would you join a weekly CFL contest if I set it up for free?
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08-17-21 08:36 AM #68
Yes I would Originally Posted by Tuesday
https://twitter.com/farhanlaljitsn/s...976649217?s=21
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08-17-21 12:34 PM #69
Ok, I'll set up the contest since with Jayvegas420 we got 3 guys at least - how many points should buy in be? I'm open to whatever. Originally Posted by Hngkng
Yeah I saw there wasn't much information about the injury, the link you posted had more information than I could find on the CFL website - can't believe Dickerson let him play injured especially he already has bad game in game 1.
I really like Dickerson as coach and as quarterback before, but he's decisions as coach are making me question his ability - and I'm questioning now his ability as coach thinking back to the last play of the perfect season Grey Cup was his call too...
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08-17-21 12:48 PM #70
i really love the cfl and have started off kicking butt
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