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    Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai 👊👊

    Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai


    We're back from a brief pause in UFC action, but now that MMA is back in the rotation after a busy spring, we'll kick off with a guaranteed standup duel between top 10 heavyweights.

    Prelims start at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

    Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

    Heavyweight main event: No. 6 Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-130) vs. No. 9 Augusto Sakai (+110)

    Tale Of The Tape

    Last fight weight class Heavyweight Heavyweight
    Age 30 33
    Height 75 76
    Reach 65.5 71.5
    Stance Orthodox Orthodox
    Analyzed minutes 65 66
    Stand-up striking offense
    Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 1:0 5:1
    Distance knockdown rate 0.0% 7.0%
    Head jab accuracy 18% 27%
    Head power accuracy 40% 30%
    Total stand-up strike ratio 1.2 1.1
    Striking defense
    Total head strike defense 71% 59%
    Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 97%
    Wrestling and grappling
    TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.03 0.00
    Takedown accuracy 50% NA
    Advances per takedown/top control 1.0 0.0
    Opponent takedown attempts 6 30
    Takedown defense 33% 80%
    Share of total ground time in control 13% 6%
    Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.00 0.00
    Through 131 minutes of combined octagon time, heavyweights Sakai and Rozenstruik have landed just a single takedown, with not a single submission attempt between them. So if you want to see a fight between heavy-handed strikers going toe-to-toe, you can expect exactly that from this main event.

    This matchup will boil down to the technical striking of Sakai versus the power and leg kicks of Rozenstruik. Though both men are distance striking specialists, their numbers are in stark contrast. Sakai is the more technical boxer with better speed. He strikes at a much busier pace (12.7 attempts per minute) and has landed his power hand much more accurately. Granted, his jab is terrible, while that of his opponent is much better, but that's unlikely to decide this contest.

    On the other side of the cage, Rozenstruik takes a more lumbering approach to his striking. He averages just over seven strike attempts per minute, lands with lower accuracy and allows opponents to land more often than he can. But his power is among the best in the game. He has scored a knockdown in all five of his UFC victories, all of which came by TKO.

    While Sakai also has some striking finishes of his own, it's more often that the accumulation of punches finishes his opponents, rather than single-strike, walk-off power. The numbers suggest Sakai could take an early lead by outboxing the hesitant Rozenstruik, but that the heavier hands of Rozenstruik will have greater finishing potential throughout the fight. Rozenstruik could also do damage with his frequent leg kicks, as he won't have to worry about takedowns from Sakai.

    E+ recommends: Money line lean on Rozenstruik as a mild favorite. But if he's going to win, it's likely by strikes, though it could take time. Factor that into prop bet hunting, and consider letting his live betting return rise to plus money if he's down early on the cards.

    Best bets elsewhere on the card

    In the featured prelim bout, women's flyweight Montana De La Rosa (-270) is the clear betting favorite over Ariane Lipski (+220). Despite Lipski having a decent submission game, her wrestling metrics are not nearly as dominant as De La Rosa's. Her wrestling roots have translated into dominant control in the clinch and on the mat. And those skills will come in handy against a Muay Thai striker like Lipski.

    Lipski has the highest striking pace of any standup striker on the card, and that could open her up to takedowns. Her mediocre takedown defense won't hold up if De La Rosa commits to the ground game early and often, and with the benefit of training at altitude in order to grind out rounds.

    E+ recommends: Money line play on De La Rosa.

    When Middleweights Tom Breese (-240) and Antonio Arroyo (+200) open up the main card, the matchup will pit two of the most accurate power strikers at the event against each other. Both men should feel confident in their hands with such high precision in them, but Breese combines his offensive accuracy with better striking defense and more dangerous power.

    Should they trade leather (and they likely will), Breese is more likely to get the better of exchanges in the long run, and he even has the better ground metrics should the fight somehow end up there.

    E+ recommends: Money line play on Breese.

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