Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 👊
Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Leon Edwards has watched the welterweight division evolve without him. Despite not having fought in nearly two years, Edwards is the third-ranked welterweight contender and the highest-ranked fighter who has not yet earned a title shot.
That makes this Saturday's main event critical to determining if Edwards will leap into title contention, or if a loss or lackluster performance will open the door for someone else.
Prelims begin at 5 p.m. Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Welterweight main event: No. 3 Leon Edwards (-260) vs. No. 13 Belal Muhammad (+220)
Tale Of The Tape
Combined, these two are on a 12-fight win streak in an already crowded division. While they've mostly been favored in their recent matchups, there's no arguing that such a streak is hard to do without being a well-rounded MMA fighter. And on paper, we see both showing strong performance metrics on the feet, as well as on the ground.
Both are accurate strikers and use a similar pace of output. Neither excels at strike avoidance, but Edwards is the one more likely to threaten with knockout power. Although Muhammad delivered an exemplary striking performance just last month, in his long UFC career he has yet to score a single knockdown. He has suffered six in total, in three fights, which were his only three losses.
These two should have plenty of chances to stand toe-to-toe, and the long layoff for Edwards will be a concern if he takes some time to get going at full speed. But he has also faced (and defeated) better strikers than Muhammad, so Edwards should have the edge as long as it's standing. In contrast, Muhammad's recent activity four weeks ago could work against him, as he has not had much time to recover.
The ground metrics are more of a wash. Both men have solid take-down defense but below average take-down success rates. These factors could cancel each other out, though Muhammad is more likely to change levels -- especially if he runs into trouble on the feet.
It's more likely that close rounds early will entice them to continue to strike, where Edwards should get leans on the cards and potentially threaten a finish.
E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Edwards. Over 1.5 rounds for parlays.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
The co-main event pits light heavyweights who are both ranked and trying to gain some traction in a shallow division. It's also a matchup with lots of finishing potential. Misha Cirkunov's (-130) specialty is clearly his grappling. He has finished all six of his UFC wins, five by way of submission. But when he doesn't get the finish, he has been TKO'd three times. That's nine UFC appearances to date, none of which went to the cards.
Pair that with Ryan Spann (+110), who prefers to keep fights standing, where he has excellent knockdown power and accuracy. His take-down defense is mediocre, so if he gets taken down, he'll clearly by vulnerable to Cirkunov's submissions. But Spann could also score a knockout when the fight is still standing or in transition. The numbers lean towards the grappler here, and the near even price makes him playable. But consider additional angles that factor in Spann's knockout potential.
E+ recommends: Money-line play on Cirkunov. Under 2.5 rounds.
Angela Hill (-370) and Ashley Yoder (+290) successfully weighed in for their matchup two weeks ago, only to have the bout postponed on fight day due to COVID-19 protocols involving a corner. The betting odds have held steady with Hill as the heavy favorite. While the lean is with Hill, the price is too high to play. Yoder's best game plan is a grinding on the mats, and she will have the wrestling edge here. Expect Yoder to make it close and force a decision.
E+ recommends: Fight goes the distance for parlays.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Leon Edwards has watched the welterweight division evolve without him. Despite not having fought in nearly two years, Edwards is the third-ranked welterweight contender and the highest-ranked fighter who has not yet earned a title shot.
That makes this Saturday's main event critical to determining if Edwards will leap into title contention, or if a loss or lackluster performance will open the door for someone else.
Prelims begin at 5 p.m. Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Welterweight main event: No. 3 Leon Edwards (-260) vs. No. 13 Belal Muhammad (+220)
Tale Of The Tape
| Last fight weight class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Age | 29 | 32 |
| Height | 74 | 71 |
| Reach | 74 | 72 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 183 | 148 |
| Stand-up striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 4:1 | 0:6 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Head jab accuracy | 27% | 31% |
| Head power accuracy | 37% | 35% |
| Total stand-up strike ratio | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 71% | 73% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 99% | 96% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| Takedown accuracy | 31% | 31% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 67 | 12 |
| Takedown defense | 70% | 83% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 54% | 87% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.14 | 0.09 |
Both are accurate strikers and use a similar pace of output. Neither excels at strike avoidance, but Edwards is the one more likely to threaten with knockout power. Although Muhammad delivered an exemplary striking performance just last month, in his long UFC career he has yet to score a single knockdown. He has suffered six in total, in three fights, which were his only three losses.
These two should have plenty of chances to stand toe-to-toe, and the long layoff for Edwards will be a concern if he takes some time to get going at full speed. But he has also faced (and defeated) better strikers than Muhammad, so Edwards should have the edge as long as it's standing. In contrast, Muhammad's recent activity four weeks ago could work against him, as he has not had much time to recover.
The ground metrics are more of a wash. Both men have solid take-down defense but below average take-down success rates. These factors could cancel each other out, though Muhammad is more likely to change levels -- especially if he runs into trouble on the feet.
It's more likely that close rounds early will entice them to continue to strike, where Edwards should get leans on the cards and potentially threaten a finish.
E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Edwards. Over 1.5 rounds for parlays.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
The co-main event pits light heavyweights who are both ranked and trying to gain some traction in a shallow division. It's also a matchup with lots of finishing potential. Misha Cirkunov's (-130) specialty is clearly his grappling. He has finished all six of his UFC wins, five by way of submission. But when he doesn't get the finish, he has been TKO'd three times. That's nine UFC appearances to date, none of which went to the cards.
Pair that with Ryan Spann (+110), who prefers to keep fights standing, where he has excellent knockdown power and accuracy. His take-down defense is mediocre, so if he gets taken down, he'll clearly by vulnerable to Cirkunov's submissions. But Spann could also score a knockout when the fight is still standing or in transition. The numbers lean towards the grappler here, and the near even price makes him playable. But consider additional angles that factor in Spann's knockout potential.
E+ recommends: Money-line play on Cirkunov. Under 2.5 rounds.
Angela Hill (-370) and Ashley Yoder (+290) successfully weighed in for their matchup two weeks ago, only to have the bout postponed on fight day due to COVID-19 protocols involving a corner. The betting odds have held steady with Hill as the heavy favorite. While the lean is with Hill, the price is too high to play. Yoder's best game plan is a grinding on the mats, and she will have the wrestling edge here. Expect Yoder to make it close and force a decision.
E+ recommends: Fight goes the distance for parlays.