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Mel Kiper Jr's 2021 NFL Mock 1 Draft 🏈
NFL mock draft 2021: Mel Kiper's new predictions for all 32 first-round picks, including Mac Jones, Trey Lance and three trades
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My second mock for the 2021 NFL draft includes a first. This is the first time in my history of doing mock drafts that I'm going to project trades in my projection of picks 1-32.
I've always stayed away because it's impossible to know how teams will maneuver -- and what offers they could get -- but this quarterback class is too good. I wanted to find fits for the top five in the class. So after I waived the no-trades clause for Todd McShay's latest mock draft, I figured it was time to make a few deals myself. You'll find explanations for all three of my deals below.
Normally at this time we'd be headed to the NFL combine to watch prospects compete. Now we'll settle for the testing numbers at pro days. It's a unique year, but all 32 teams have to make due and so do I.
Let's get into my predictions for the top 32 picks in the draft, which begins April 29. As I've said before, the New York Jets have several options with the No. 2 pick, and I expect stiff competition from teams trying to move up to that spot. I have a trade that I think works for both teams. Here we go:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Don't overthink this. Lawrence is the best quarterback in this class, a player with superstar potential around whom new coach Urban Meyer can build. The Jaguars can add help for Lawrence in what is expected to be one of the most talented free-agent classes ever -- they are projected to have nearly $80 million in cap space. Lawrence could use some targets to throw to, and the defense has holes to fill as well. Jacksonville also has the No. 25 overall pick from the Jalen Ramsey trade along with the Vikings' second-rounder from the Yannick Ngakoue trade. Lawrence had surgery on his left shoulder last week, and he should be ready for training camp.
Trade: Atlanta moves up to get the No. 2 QB
OK, here we go. The Falcons make a deal to get their quarterback. My comp for the deal is the Bears' trading up for Mitchell Trubisky in 2017. To move up one spot and get the No. 2 pick, Chicago gave up pick Nos. 3, 67, 111 and a third-rounder the following year.
So for Atlanta to move up two spots, it's going to have to send the Jets the No. 4 pick, likely its second-round picks this year and more picks. That's a lot to give up, sure, but there is going to be competition. The Jets should take the best deal on the table, and this one means they only drop two spots and pick up prime assets after that.
2. Atlanta Falcons (via mock trade with NYJ)
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
This is the Falcons' chance to reboot. Matt Ryan has started 205 games for the franchise since he was drafted third overall in 2008, but he turns 36 in May. Trading up to get Wilson would help sort the future under new coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot. Remember, if you're Smith and Fontenot, you don't expect to be drafting this high, so you never know when you're going to have a chance on a quarterback like Wilson. They have to get their guy now. Ryan would likely remain the starter in 2021 while Wilson adjusts to the pro game. He could take over in 2022. Ohio State's Justin Fields could be in play, too, but I see Wilson as the ideal option for the Falcons.
3. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Let's reunite the Heisman Trophy winner with his former quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa completed 83 passes for 1,519 yards and 18 touchdowns to Smith from 2017 to '19. Miami needs to upgrade its wide receiver corps. This is a perfect fit with Smith playing alongside DeVante Parker. I have Smith just ahead of LSU's Ja'Marr Chase in my rankings, but it's tight.
4. New York Jets (via mock trade with ATL)
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
So the Jets move down, add priority picks and end up with one of the best players in this class. I still believe they're better off giving Sam Darnold another year and improving the talent around their quarterback. The 23-year-old is too talented to give up on. Darnold has never had a pass-catcher like Pitts, either. The 6-foot-6 Pitts can line out wide and in the slot, and I'd target him like a No. 1 wide receiver. As I mentioned on the First Draft podcast, he is going to end up as my highest-graded tight end ever. He's also extremely young -- he was born in 2000 and will be 20 when he plays in Week 1. By the way, since the common draft era began in 1967, there has never been a tight end go this high. Pitts could be the first.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
No team in the top 10 has a clearer need than the Bengals' hole at tackle. They have to keep quarterback Joe Burrow on his feet. Sewell, who opted out of the 2020 season, is my No. 2 prospect overall. The 2019 Outland Trophy winner has everything teams want in a franchise left tackle. Even though he didn't play last season, his tape from the previous two years is enough to make him the top tackle in this class. Cincinnati could get a 10-year starter.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
After trading away Carson Wentz, 2020 second-round pick Jalen Hurts tops the Eagles' quarterback depth chart. And my feeling is that he has earned a chance to start in Week 1 next season and try to be Philly's long-term answer, even though he completed just 52% of his passes last season. The Eagles have major salary-cap issues, and this is not going to be a one-year rebuild for new coach Nick Sirianni. I wouldn't be surprised if they're picking in the top 10 next year as well. Drafting Chase here will allow a better evaluation of Hurts in 2021; he's a true No. 1 wideout with a high ceiling. After opting out of the 2020 season, Chase will get a chance to work out for teams at LSU's pro day on March 31, and there's a chance he could wow scouts and coaches there and end up as the No. 1 receiver in this class.
Trade: San Francisco shakes up the draft
Another trade, and this one could cost the 49ers a lot of capital. It's tough to project the exact details, but moving up five spots in a talented quarterback class means there will be competition. We can look to the Mitchell Trubisky trade as one comp, but another could be the Steelers' move for Devin Bush in 2019, where they jumped 10 spots with the Broncos and had to give up the Nos. 20 and 52 picks, plus a third-round pick the following year.
Yes, it's 10 spots, but the Lions should expect a similar return. That would mean they'd get pick No. 12, the 49ers' second-rounder this year and a future pick, though San Francisco doesn't have a third-round selection because of its trade for Trent Williams last year. I wouldn't be shocked, though, if the 49ers had to give up their 2022 first-round pick to get it done.
The 49ers would get their quarterback. Detroit is rebuilding and needs premium picks to add talent across its roster, and it already has the Rams' first-rounders in 2022 and 2023 and their third-rounder this year. This is a win-win deal for both sides.
7. San Francisco 49ers (via mock trade with DET)
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
This is a pick that raises the 49ers' ceiling. When they went to the Super Bowl in 2019, they were led by a stellar running game and defense that could both rush the passer and create turnovers. It didn't appear that coach Kyle Shanahan fully trusted Jimmy Garoppolo to win playoff games with his arm. I'd love to see Fields play for Shanahan, who could get the best out of him. If this deal happens, San Francisco could designate Garoppolo as a post-June 1 release and save $25 million on its cap this year. That would help offset the lost draft picks in the trade because the team would have some money to spend in free agency -- and bring back left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers were really hurt by injuries last season, but they should be back in the NFC West race in 2021.
8. Carolina Panthers
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
We know the Panthers offered this pick to the Lions for Matthew Stafford, and it appears Matt Rhule & Co. are maneuvering to make a play for Deshaun Watson -- if the Texans decide to honor his request and trade him. The team clearly isn't satisfied with Teddy Bridgewater and wants to upgrade. So let's assume Carolina can't pry away Watson and instead looks to the draft. I have Jones just ahead of North Dakota State's Trey Lance in my rankings, but a lot will depend on their interviews with teams leading up to the draft. Jones, who showed tremendous downfield accuracy last season, is more ready to play in 2021, though, and the Panthers have the talent on offense to help him succeed.
Trade: The Pats snag their franchise QB
One more trade, again for a quarterback. And that makes five QBs in the top nine picks. To move up six spots, we can keep the comp of the Devin Bush trade. The Patriots would have to send the Broncos at least the No. 15 pick, a second-round pick and a 2022 pick. And I wouldn't be shocked if it took the Pats' 2022 first-rounder to get the deal over the finish line. New England also is expected to add premium compensatory picks for this class, so it could have more ammo to use.
Bill Belichick is known more for trading down in drafts, but the Patriots traded up a couple of times on Day 2 last year to get guys they wanted in Josh Uche and Devin Asiasi. Don't rule out a big move if Belichick & Co. want to get their quarterback of the future.
9. New England Patriots (via mock trade with DEN)
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Belichick and the Patriots have been quiet this offseason, but that should change soon. They have money to spend in free agency, and they need to find a quarterback. It doesn't appear likely that Cam Newton will return. The veteran QB trade market has dwindled. I could see a Jimmy Garoppolo return to New England, but I'm not sold that he'd be the long-term answer. Lance could be. He started only 17 career games in college -- all against FCS competition -- but he's only 20, and he has all the tools to be a great dual-threat quarterback. Remember that the Patriots have a few players returning after opting out of last season, too, so they could contend in the AFC East again.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
I was down to offensive line or cornerback for Dallas, and with Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis likely to leave in free agency, I see corner as the bigger need. The Cowboys were terrible on defense last season, and new coordinator Dan Quinn has a ways to go to turn it around. Surtain on one side with former Alabama teammate Trevon Diggs on the other is a great way to start. The Dak Prescott decision looms large on the Cowboys' offseason, but I expect him to get franchise tagged or sign a long-term deal.
11. New York Giants
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Can the Giants get Daniel Jones a No. 1 receiver? He has had Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and tight end Evan Engram as his top targets the past two seasons, and they've struggled with inconsistency and staying on the field. Now is the time to get a full evaluation of Jones. If they don't wade into the free-agent waters, Waddle is the best option at No. 11. He is the top deep threat in this class and is electric with the ball in his hands.
12. Detroit Lions (via mock trade with SF)
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
With the Lions moving down in my mock trade with the 49ers, that takes them out of the quarterback race but gives them extra draft capital. Jared Goff is going to remain on their roster in 2021 because of his salary, but he might not be the long-term solution. And I don't expect Detroit to improve next season, which means it could have another valuable pick (plus it has the Rams' first-round picks in 2022 and 2023). The Lions allowed 6.3 yards per play under former coach Matt Patricia last season, which ranked last in the league. They need help on defense. Parsons is a versatile linebacker with some pass-rush upside.
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Like the Bengals at No. 5, I don't see the Chargers going away from offensive line with their top pick. L.A.'s four-game winning streak to end the season cost the franchise valuable draft positioning (and coach Anthony Lynn was still let go), but it can get a starting lineman here. I like Slater, who opted out of the 2020 season, as a tackle -- he didn't give up any sacks playing there in 2019 -- but he could play guard, too.
14. Minnesota Vikings
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC
I'll stick with Vera-Tucker here because of his versatility. He played guard before moving to left tackle for USC last season. He impressed there and rocketed up draft boards. I think he'll probably stick at tackle in the NFL. We know coach Mike Zimmer will always push for the Vikings to draft a defender, and this could also be a spot for a pass-rusher or defensive back.
15. Denver Broncos (via mock trade with NE)
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Like I told my pal Jeff Legwold last week, cornerback is the position I'd target for Denver. And I'd even feel comfortable taking Farley at No. 9 if the Broncos don't trade back, so this is good value. He showed in 2019 that he can be an elite, lockdown corner, though I would like to have seen one more year of film (he opted out of the 2020 season). He's still raw. The Broncos could part ways with both safety Justin Simmons (free agency) and edge rusher Von Miller (cap casualty) this offseason, so they need to boost their talent on defense under Vic Fangio.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
With longtime star Patrick Peterson likely gone in free agency, corner is a clear void for the Cardinals, who struggled down the stretch last season after starting 5-2. Their defense should get a boost with the return of pass-rusher Chandler Jones from injury, but they need more talent in the secondary. Horn is not a ball hawk, but the instincts are there. He is around the ball more than the stat sheet shows (he had only two interceptions over three seasons at South Carolina). Offensive line and wide receiver are two other positions Arizona could look toward.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
The Raiders have used first-round picks on safeties twice in recent years, first in 2014 on Karl Joseph and then in 2019 on Johnathan Abram. Joseph didn't work out, and Abram has played only 14 games the past two seasons, but both are box safeties with limitations in coverage. Moehrig is a more fluid athlete who can play as a deep safety. He has some range. He's also not afraid to stick his head in and make a tackle. Vegas could also go with an edge rusher with this pick.
18. Miami Dolphins
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
I'm interested to see what Miami does in free agency. With a deep class of free-agent receivers, it's possible this team could find its No. 1 wideout there instead of using the No. 3 pick on one. In that case, I'd still suggest drafting a receiver with one of these picks and thinking defense with the other. I mocked Owusu-Koramoah to the Dolphins in January; he could be an instant starter with Elandon Roberts and Kamu Grugier-Hill hitting free agency. General manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores have built a solid foundation. This is an ascending team.
19. Washington Football Team
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
What's Washington going to do at quarterback? I don't have one on the board this late with a Round 1 grade. If we assume Washington will figure that out before the draft -- free agency starts in less than three weeks -- that makes this pick easier. This team already has a young, talented defense, but it could address the offensive line, particularly if guard Brandon Scherff leaves next month. Darrisaw had a fantastic season, excelling as a run- and pass-blocker. He could play either tackle spot. In a rare deep tackle class, Washington could get a Day 1 starter here.
20. Chicago Bears
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
This is another team with a big quarterback question. The Bears made the playoffs (at 8-8) with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles under center, but they reportedly were in the Carson Wentz sweepstakes. With Trubisky a free agent and not expected to return, are they now going to stick with Foles? Regardless, I don't see a quarterback for them here, but they can add Toney, a playmaker who will help as a receiver, runner and return man. Get the ball in his hands and get out of the way. Chicago could also get in on the tackle class and draft a successor for Charles Leno and Bobbie Massie.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
The Colts would probably love to get a tackle to replace the retired Anthony Costanzo, but I don't see a great fit based on my rankings. (They could solve the issue by kicking All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson outside.) Instead they can address their pass rush and get younger with Justin Houston likely leaving in free agency. Rousseau, who opted out of the 2020 season, had 15.5 sacks in 2019, though he's still raw. I'm interested in seeing his testing numbers at his pro day next month. Indianapolis should have a few options to take its preferred edge rusher here because the class lacks elite prospects.
22. Tennessee Titans
Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
As I mentioned in my Mock 1.0, the Titans have to be all over the edge rushers in this class. Their defense really lacked any pass rush last season, getting virtually nothing from Jadeveon Clowney and finishing with just 19 total sacks. They'd be happy with Phillips still on the board. The UCLA transfer and former five-star prospect really came on last season and is rising quickly. Phillips had concussion issues at UCLA, so his medical checks will be important. But I love his 2020 tape. And yes, this is back-to-back Miami pass-rushers, but Rousseau and Phillips never got to play together because Phillips missed the 2019 season due to transfer rules.
23. New York Jets (from SEA)
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
I went with a tight end to the Jets with their first pick, and this pick could be for the best defensive prospect available. Robert Saleh's defense could use help at all levels. Paye is next up on my board. He had only 11.5 career sacks at Michigan, but he has athletic traits that NFL teams crave, which should push him into Round 1. You won't find many 270-pound defensive ends who can move like him.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama
The Steelers have major cap issues and a long list of free agents that includes edge rusher Bud Dupree, wide receiver JuJu-Smith Schuster and tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Zach Banner, so their needs will be clearer once we get through free agency. But a center makes sense because of Maurkice Pouncey's retirement -- Dickerson could be an immediate replacement. I really like his game. The Florida State transfer injured his knee in the SEC title game and didn't play in the College Football Playoff, but the Alabama coaches rave about him on and off the field. He can be the anchor the Steelers need.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
I pegged Barmore to the Jags in my Mock 1.0 as well, though I thought about a wide receiver for Trevor Lawrence. LSU's Terrace Marshall Jr. is still available. Barmore was tremendous down the stretch for the Crimson Tide and could slot in as an upgrade in the middle of new coordinator Joe Cullen's defense. The secondary is another position to watch for Jacksonville.
26. Cleveland Browns
Zaven Collins, OLB/DE, Tulsa
The Browns have a few defensive starters hitting free agency, including defensive linemen Olivier Vernon and Larry Ogunjobi and linebacker B.J. Goodson. Collins could be used as a versatile player to exploit mismatches. At 260 pounds, he could put his hand in the dirt and rush the passer, or he could play outside linebacker, fill run fits and even cover running backs out of the flat. He stuffed the statsheet on the way to winning the Nagurski Award last season, with four sacks, four interceptions (two pick-sixes) and two forced fumbles. Cleveland could also be in the market for corners or wideouts, depending on how free agency shakes out.
27. Baltimore Ravens
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
This is another pick that stays the same from my mock draft in January, and it's because Marshall fits what the Ravens are looking for in a wide receiver. They need a bigger target who can pick up first downs and score in the red zone. At 6-3, Marshall had 10 scores in seven games last season. If Baltimore has some more size to help Lamar Jackson on intermediate throws, they can better stretch the field with Marquise Brown. As I mentioned before, this offense had the fewest passing attempts, passing yards and passing first downs in the league last season. There is a lot of room for improvement.
28. New Orleans Saints
Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn State
Yes, I'm projecting an edge rusher in Round 1 who had zero sacks last season. But turn on the tape. He pressured quarterbacks even if he didn't close on them. And this is all about what I'm hearing Oweh is going to do at his pro day on March 25. There is a lot of buzz that he's going to run a 4.4 40-yard dash at 255 pounds and wow coaches and scouts with his testing numbers. He is an extraordinary athlete with room to grow into a great player. Oweh made my preseason list of Big Ten prospects to monitor, and even though he didn't put it all together, he has a high ceiling. The Saints, meanwhile, could lose Trey Hendrickson in free agency, creating a hole at defensive end.
29. Green Bay Packers
Joe Tryon, OLB/DE, Washington
I thought about a cornerback like Kentucky's Kelvin Joseph for the Packers, but they also could use an edge rusher, particularly if Preston Smith is a cap casualty. Tryon would be perfect for Green Bay's 3-4 defense under new coordinator Joe Barry. Another opt-out of last season, Tryon had eight sacks in 2019. He needs to refine his pass-rushing moves, but he can bend around offensive tackles as a rusher and also set the edge in the run game. This could also be the spot to finally get Aaron Rodgers a Round 1 receiver.
30. Buffalo Bills
Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
This pick could depend on whether free-agent right tackle Daryl Williams returns and whether the Bills think former second-round pick Cody Ford could kick out to tackle. If they view him as a guard, tackle becomes a hole to fill. Jenkins played on both the left and right sides at Oklahoma State. I could see Buffalo targeting a cornerback if a guy the organization likes makes it to No. 30, and I think running back should be an option as well. This is a team that is close to being a Super Bowl contender.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Walker Little, OT, Stanford
This might be a new name for some, but Little made my preseason Big Board all the way back in August 2019. That was ahead of the 2020 draft. Then he injured his knee in the season opener and missed the rest of that season and opted out of 2020, so he hasn't played much football since. I called Little more of a finesse tackle in 2019, but he has a great frame (6-7, 315 pounds) and can move his feet. He started as a true freshman at Stanford. There is some projection here, but Little has some great tape from 2017 and 2018. Scouts will be able to see him up close at his pro day next month. And if you watched Patrick Mahomes run for his life in Super Bowl LV, you know the Chiefs could use a tackle.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Azeez Ojulari, OLB/DE, Georgia
With Tryon off the board to the Packers, Ojulari is the next pass-rusher in my rankings. And with the uncertainty around whether free-agent defensive end Shaq Barrett will return, it makes sense for the Bucs to get younger on the edge. Ojulari had 8.5 sacks last season, including three in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl win. He has some versatility to move around the defense, but he's one of the top pure pass-rushers in this class. Wide receiver is a position to watch for Tampa, particularly if it doesn't bring back Chris Godwin, who is a free agent.
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Originally Posted by dark star
